New England Phillies Phan

Pitchers & Catchers Report!!!

2010-02-19T14:04:00.002-05:00

Finally, after a long and dark winter of discontent, the 2010 baseball season is here. While I still enjoy other sports, baseball is my first love and my obsession some might say. But today, the pain is finally over. Its the second official day of Spring Training for the Phillies...at least for pitchers & catchers. Despite this, a good number of other position players are already in camp and working out (some since January actually). Howard has been there a few weeks, Utley and Polanco reported early. Utley always reports early and Polanco (who typically doesnt) came a full week early to take extra reps at 3B.

On the pitchers/catchers side of the house, Ruiz, Contreras & Moyer were the last 3 to report in at camp and all 3 showed up on the 17th.

10 Guys To Watch In Camp:

1. Cole Hamels - He supposedly worked on his curveball and will be working on it all spring training. He's also working on a slider so it should be interesting to see how hard he gets hammered the first couple of Grapefruit League starts as he uses them in game action.

2. J.A. Happ - Happ is working on a 2 seamer/sinker to compliment his current arsenal of various fastball iterations. He threw primarily 4 seamers and cutters last year to go with his slider and change. That should give him a different look and with his height, it could be a very effective pitch if he perfects it.

3. Placido Polanco - How well will he transition to fielding 3B again? He is a great fielder and he has the arm strength so it shouldn't be too rough of a transition. Should be fun the first couple times he gets a screamer down the line though.

4. Brad Lidge - If and when he's healthy again, it should be interesting to see where his velocity/control is at for his fastball as well as his pickoff move (something that was non-existent in 2009). He's about 2 weeks behind the other pitchers in camp for readiness. Odds are he won't be ready for Opening Day.

5. Antonio Bastardo - Antonio had an absolutely fantastic winter and fall. He pitched lights out in the Dominican League (equivalent of AA/AAA competition) and he's been fully converted to a relief role. He was able to sit 93-95 as a reliever at Reading last year and he was typically low 90s (89-91) as a starter at the MLB level. It will also be interesting to see where his changeup and slider were at. His change was supposedly his best pitch as a minor-leagure but he never really got comfortable using it in the Majors. Going into April, he'll likely be the only LH pitcher in the bullpen.

6. Scott Mathieson - Scott is coming back from his 2nd TJ surgery and might finally be healthy. He was regularly hitting 97mph in the Arizona Fall League and was pretty unhittable in limited action last year in the minors. He could be a sleeper to make the team out of the bullpen if Moyer, Lidge and Romero all aren't ready by Opening Day.

7. Phillippe Aumont - He got a Major League invite so we'll get at least a couple weeks of him against MLB hitters. While he's at least a full year or so away, this will be a good benchmark to see where he's at as a prospect.

8. John Mayberry Jr - Barring injury, he'll start the year in Lehigh. However, he had a strong winter in the Mexican League where he was sent to work on hitting breaking balls. He batted over .300 there so hopefully he can build on that success. He's not really a prospect anymore as he's into his Age 27 season but he might end up as a decent platoon OF. I wouldn't be stunned if he is traded after a strong Spring. Between Ben Francisco and Dewayne Wise, he's pretty unneccessary and he might be a decent bargaining chip to pick up another pitcher.

9. Dom Brown - He's our last elite prospect. While he'll start the year in Reading, he's not that far away when its all said and done. His only chance of seeing the Majors will be as a Sept callup but it will be good to see how he does against advanced pitching. He hasn't had a breakout year yet but he's always been young for his league in the minors. Still, he's got the making of an All-Star RF.

10. Kyle Kendrick - This is it for Kyle. This will be his last chance to be an MLB pitcher. If he can't beat out a hobbled 47 year old Jamie Moyer and AAA retreads like Drew Carpenter and Ryan Vogelsong for the 5th starter position, I see no point in keeping him around. Hopefully he builds on his strong Sept last year and shows us something worth keeping.

Weekend Wrap/Off-Season Thoughts

2009-11-02T12:19:00.002-05:00

Well, we all knew that it wouldn't be easy. The Yankees are the most talented team in baseball and we knew it would take essentially perfect baseball to beat them. The Phillies simply haven't performed. They haven't made the spectacular defensive plays or the great clutch hits that they made last year. Hamels and Lidge have been decidedly human this post-season. Ruiz has made some questionable pitch selections and the big bats (other than Werth & Utley) have failed to show up. At this point, we're playing for respectability. If we can force a Game 6 or 7 we will at least have pushed a truly great team to the edge. We lose in 5 (my fear) and we will be looked at as a flash in the pan fluke team that got lucky last year and this year. That's not the truth but that's what will be said. This team has always played its best baseball with its backs against the wall. That Feliz HR last night was a great example of that. I really thought we were gonna win when that happened but it was all for naught.

Either way, its really hard for me to complain about back-to-back World Series appearances, two pennants and three straight Division titles. We've won a World Championship with this core and done what no other Phillies team has ever done in making it back the very next year. We have a great team coming back next year too so this is not a last gasp effort like 1983 or a fluke like 1993. We are a great team, the best the NL has to offer. We play great defense, hit for great power, steal bases and play a hard-nosed style of baseball. This series could easily have gone the other way. We were in Game 2 and Game 4. We very well could be up 3-1 ourselves had a couple key hits happened or key defensive plays. We could also very easily win 3 straight to win the Series. Yeah, there's probably like a 9% chance of it happening but with this team I could see it.

Going into next year, we have a lot of good things going for us:

1. Our entire core is coming back. The only free agents are Feliz, Stairs, Bruntlett, Myers, Pedro, Eyre & Park. None will be missed too much. Feliz can be replaced with a FA signing and relievers are fungible. Blanton is in his final year of arbitration so the Phillies might have to make a decision on whether to resign him or go after Pedro as the 3/4 starter. Odds are they'll go with Blanton as he's far less injury prone. He'll likely cost about $6-8 million for his final year with us which is pricey but less than we'd pay on the open market for a similar pitcher. We have $108 million committed to next year before arbitration raises. I figure our payroll will have a hard cap of no more than $140 million but likely closer to $130 million like it was this year (we came in at around $134 million when all was said and done with the Pedro signing and Lee trade). Our only major NEED is a legit 3B so we should be able to spend to fix that hole. The bullpen will get help from the minors as guys like Scott Mathieson, Antonio Bastardo and Kyle Kendrick likely take spots behind Lidge, Madson, & a hopefully healthy Romero.

2. We still got all the playoff revenue we could expect by playing 3 WS games at home. We'll have plenty of cash in the off-season that will see other teams make hard choices due to the economy. We should be able to seize that opportunity and retool for another run. While most teams will be making tough $$ decisions due to the continued bad economy, the Phillies will be one of the few with money to spend. Hopefully Rube is able to take advantage of this unique opportunity and get some guys at less than their market value. Rube knows he crapped the bed on our bench and I figure we'll target a good middle infielder to spell Utley/Rollins as well as a legit speedy OF bat. Francisco will be back as will Dobbs.

3. Hamels will be better next year and we'll have 2 Aces at the top of the rotation. Hamels had a terrible year (something I predicted) but he should bounce back next year. He'll be entering his prime at Age 26 and he should hopefully grow a pair and recommit himself to pitching. He could go the other way but I tend to doubt it. Everything that could go wrong for him in 2009 did. However, his peripherals stayed the same as 2008. There were no drops in K/9, BB/9 or other splits that would indicate a loss of skill. He actually improved his control surprisingly. He just had a lot of balls fall in and had issues finishing guys off (his 2 strike BAA went up about 40 points). I think those things will improve with the off-season. Lee will have pitched 270+ innings this year so hopefully he doesn't feel any afteraffects like Hamels did this year. Our rotation going into next year will likely be Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ and ??? (maybe Kendrick though Moyer will be in camp too).

4. We have a pretty strong Farm system and guys like Drabek, Taylor and Brown will be helping the 2nd half of next year. Lesser names like Mathieson and Bastardo will likely have spots in the BP and we just might see the 2nd coming of Kyle Kendrick in the rotation. We also have some other good arms in the system that should be ready for the bullpen if need be like Schwimmer and Rosenberg. That will help Rube avoid having to sign questionable relievers at overly expensive costs.

Within our own division, the Mets have a TON of question marks and their aging players will be another year older. They likely won't have money to spend again as they owe close to $50 million in the Madoff scheme and will be fighting a costly legal battle. Their GM is a moron so that also helps. The Braves should threaten again and their pitching is very good. I would expect a threat again. The Fish will probably trade Uggla this off-season and start Coglan at 2B. They will be young and dangerous once again but I doubt we will lose the division to them. The Nats are barely a AAA team so I'm not worried. Barring a slew of major injuries, we should be able to take the NL East for the 4th straight year in 2010.

Happy Memorial Day

2009-05-25T15:28:00.002-04:00

Let's all take a pause from our everyday lives and remember all those who gave the ultimate sacrifice in defense of God and Country. I believe Arthur Ashe put it best, "True herorism is remarkably sober, very undramatic. It is not the urge to surpass all others at whatever cost, but the urge to serve others at whatever cost. "

Remember those who died for their country, their nation, their flag on this day.

Kyle Drabek: A Star In The Making?

2009-04-15T20:53:00.006-04:00

Kyle Drabek is just 21 years of age and currently pitching in Single-A Clearwater but he has all the makings of a possible future star. He possesses 2 plus pitches and a decent third pitch. You could argue which is his better pitch: A 92-95 mph fastball that can touch 97 mph on occasion with good movement or a strong hammer curve (upper 70s mph) that buckles the knees of most batters. Both pitches are out pitches and he is able to mix and match with them to keep hitters off-balance in the box. He also throws a decent change and appears to have just begun to discover his potential after a long road back following Tommy John surgery. Originally, Drabek fell to the Phillies in the 2006 draft due to major concerns about his maturity and work ethic. Thankfully, Drabek appears to have been transformed by his surgery and its subsequent long recovery and has recommitted himself to baseball. Because of that new found maturity, Drabek could be a # 1 starter in the Majors if he fulfills his vast potential. Hopefully he will join a rotation anchored by World Series MVP Cole Hamels in the next couple years and provide the Phillies with a very solid duo of young, dominating starters at the major league level. Either way, it should be exciting to follow his progress through the minor leagues. So far in 2009, he's made two starts and dominated in both outings. His combined numbers so far? 2 GS, 2-0, 12 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 16 K, .150 BAA. Hopefully, he keeps up his early domination of the Florida State League and is promoted to Reading by mid-season. That would put him on path to be either a September call-up (a long-shot in a playoff race) or a 2nd half of 2010 arrival in the Majors.

Either way, the Drabek bandwagon is pulling out of the station and I'm fully in the driver's seat.

Harry Kalas Dead At 73

2009-04-13T14:15:00.002-04:00

~Shocked~

What a loss. I don't even have words right now.

Here's the Link: http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/20090413_Phils_announcer_Harry_Kalas_rushed_to_the_hospital.html

Minor League Spotlight - Pitching Prospects

2009-04-10T20:49:00.005-04:00

It's early yet but its been an impressive debut for several of the top prospects in the Phillies system. The Phillies farm system has taken huge strides in the past few years and is now generally rated around #12 by most scouting organizations. Several top prospects made their season debuts tonight and all of them impressed.

SP Carlos Carrasco (AAA) - Carrasco is generally considered the top pitching prospect in the Phillies system and one of the top 50 prospects in all of baseball. He features a low 90s fastball, a very good changeup (generally his best pitch) and a decent curve. He starts the year in AAA playing for the Iron Pigs after losing a long-shot bid to crack the Phillies Opening Day rotation. Still just 23 years of age, the future is bright. His numbers tonight against a good Yankees minor-league squad: 6 IP, 0 ER, 0 R, 4 H, 4 K, 0 BB. Not too shabby from Carlos against very good competition.

SP Joe Savery (AA) - Savery's 2008 campaign was generally considered a complete bust. He was self-admittedly out of shape in his first full year of pro ball. His velocity was well down from his college days at Rice where he was generally in the low 90s. His fastball hovered in the low-to-mid 80s last season and got hammered at times because of it. He reportedly re-committed himself to playing baseball and is finally fully healthy after a 2 year recovery from major shoulder surgery. He won't be fast-tracked to the Majors like many thought this time last year but there is reason to be hopeful. His velocity was back up in Spring Training and he started off the season on a good note: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 R, 8 K, 1 HR. It will be interesting to see where he is on his fastball but his box score is quite impressive. Hopefully he is able to continue this level of production throughout the season. If he can, he will once again be a top prospect in the Phillies system.

SP Kyle Drabek (A+) - Kyle has been a long way back from arm surgery. He has impressed many in the organization with his new found maturity and work ethic. Drabek originally fell to the Phillies due to concerns over both and he could end up being the steal of that draft. He features a mid-90s fastball, a heavy hammer curve and a decent change. Drabek probably has the best pure stuff of any pitcher in their system and he could quickly overtake Carrasco as the top prospect if he continues on this path. Finally ready for a full season of pro ball, Drabek should impress. I fully expect him to end the season in Reading and be pushing for a spot on the major league club in 2010. His line yesterday: 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 K and the Win.

SP Drew Naylor (A+) - Naylor dominated at Lakewood last year but was old for that league. He was quickly promoted to High A and his numbers suffered as a result. After a disappointing performance in Clearwater (3-7, 4.85 ERA), he will repeat that level to start 2009. As an Aussie import, its important to remember that his developmental curve is different than a typical North American prospect but at Age 23 (he turns 23 on May 31st) in High A ball, he needs to start moving. He started off his season on a good note: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.

SP Jason Knapp (A) - Jason Knapp is the product of the Northeast and is thus used to pitching in cold and miserable weather. So lucky for him, he'll be pitching in Lakewood to start the season. As he's just 18 years of age (he turns 19 in August), he could have a bright future if he stays healthy. He was drafted last year out of High School due to his high 90's fastball and projectable frame. He could regularly hit 97 mph on his fastball in high school and there is every reason to believe he will build on that pure stuff. He starts the year in Lakewood (impressive for his age) and could move fairly quickly if his secondary stuff develops. His line today: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 R, 3 BB, 10 K.

So, all in all, the future looks bright.

Tragedy in Los Angeles

2009-04-09T20:25:00.003-04:00

I was going to post Part III of my AL preview but decided, much like the Angels and MLB, to delay that in honor of the tragic passing of Nick Adenhart in a senseless hit and run accident early this morning. Adenhart, one of baseball's top prospects, was struck and killed by a suspected drunk driver just hours after putting in the finest performance of his young career. By all accounts, Nick played the game the right way and was a standup kid who epitomized everything you would want in a young player. Nick was just 22 years old. Rest In Peace, Nick.

2009 AL Predictions, Part II (AL West)

2009-03-31T19:52:00.002-04:00

For the AL West, I'm going out on a limb by predicting a surprise season by the Oakland Athletics. The Angels took a big step back this off-season and due to a slew of injuries to their pitching staff, the door could be open for the A's to sneak in and steal this division. With that in mind, the A's pushed all their chips to the middle of the table. Here we go again...

1. Oakland Athletics - On the urging of team owner Lew Wolff, GM Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics have gone all in at the Turn for the 2009 season. It'll be interesting to see what turns up on the River for Wolff and Beane. Now that I've pretty much beaten that poker metaphor worse than Chris Brown beat Rihanna, let's get on with the A's 2009 season. The acquisition of rental LF Matt Holliday can not end well for Oakland. The As managed to avoid giving up any real top end talent. They'll miss OF Carlos Gonzalez more than CL Huston Street as the A's have plenty of good young pitching that can step into Street's shoes. Street is one of the more overrated relief pitchers in all of baseball and he was nearing the point of his career where he would become vastly overpaid for throwing 1 inning of work every couple days. There are only a few elite closers in all of baseball (their names are Rivera, Rodriquez, Lidge, & Nathan essentially) and Street doesn't compare to any of them. Relievers are a fungible asset and closers are nothing more than a glorified reliever. Thus, while it was a good trade, Holliday will disappoint those expecting him to be the guy he was at Coor's Field. However, the addition of Holliday, Giambi (who can still crush the baseball) and SS Orlando Cabrera will vastly transform the middle of the A's lineup. They'll join incumbents 2B Mark Ellis (recently locked up for 3 more years), 3B Eric Chavez (the most injured player in baseball not named Mike Hampton), DH Jack Cust (he strikes out a lot, like 33% of all his plate appearances, for a reference Howard = 28%), and 1B Daric Barton (who is much better than his 86 OPS+ last year would suggest). Oakland was able to replace some of the pitching they traded away last year (Harden, Blanton, & Smith) and should be able to roll out a fairly good and very young rotation headlined by veteran SP Justin Duchscherer. While Duchscherer will likely start the season on the DL, he surprised almost everyone last year with a very solid effort as a starter. After that, its a pure youth movement with Dana Eveland (Age 25), Sean Gallagher (Age 23), Gio Gonzalez (Age 23), Dallas Braden (Age 25), Trevor Cahill (Age 21), and Brett Anderson (Age 21). Also on the outside looking in is another prospect in SP Josh Outman (acquired in the Blanton deal and just 24). Oakland has the luxury of mixing and matching among all 7 of these potential starters as well as several other prospects a year or so away to come up with a usable rotation. Several of them are top talents so given the A's proven track record at developing young pitchers, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. Whoever doesn't make the rotation will likely end up in the bullpen to support emerging closer Joey Devine. It will be an interesting year for Beane and the Athletics, one that could define their legacy and make or break major league baseball on their side of the Bay. The A's desperately need another playoff run to re-ignite one of the worst fanbases in all of baseball and restart talks for a new stadium deal. Otherwise, the Athletics' days in Oakland could be numbered. Still, the AL West is a weak division this year and the A's could easily sneak in and win it on pure youth and talent (ala Rays of 09). 85-90 Wins (darkhorse candidate in the AL)

2. Los Angeles Angels - During the Battle of Jutland, Vice Admiral David Beatty lost 2 of his Dreadnaught Battlecruisers in under 30 minutes of action leading him to turn to his subordinate and mutter, "There's something wrong with our bloody ships today." I'm guessing that Manager Mike Scioscia muttered something similar to his pitching coach as he has watched SPs Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, and Ervin Santana all be struck down by fairly major injures before the start of the 2009 season. The Angels will have to rely heavily on the up and down Jared Weaver and the surprising Jon Saunders to start off the 2009 season. Dustin Moseley, who couldn't make it as their 5th starter last season will enter the 2009 campaign in the #3 role and that does not bode well for the Angels this year. They have the highly regarded and much rumored in trades Nick Adenhart will follow him in the rotation. The Angels desperately tried to resign 1B Mike Teixeira but were never really in the race to do so. They passed on LF Manny Ramirez due to concerns about his character and due to a pure dislike of dealing with superagent Scott Boras. Instead, they grabbed a consolation prize in the underrated Bobby Abreu, owner of some very impressive overall numbers and a overwhelming fear of big, scary walls. Its said that Bobby once wet himself upon realizing his cleats had touched the warning track. Still, he still swings a good bat and had phenomenal on-base skills. Abreu took a massive paycut when he accepted a 1 year, $5 million deal and will be fighting to prove he is still a legitimate MLBer all season as a result. This despite him posting his 7th season of at least 100 RBIs in 08 while picking up at least 20 HRs and 20 SB for the 8th time in his career. He will slot in nicely in a lineup that features the still formidable Vlad Guerrero, CF Torii Hunter, 2B Howie "maybe this is the year I stay healthy" Kendrick, 3B Chone Figgins, and slugging catcher Mike Napoli (20 HRs in 227 AB last year). In the bullpen, the "loss" of closer Francisco Rodriguez will be largely negated by the acquistion of Brian Fuentes and the up and coming Jose Arredondo (who will start the season in the setup man). There are just too many questions in their rotation for now. 85-90 Wins.

3. Texas Rangers - The feel good story of last year was recovering drug addict Josh Hamilton and that's great. Its largely ignored that he pretty much hit the wall in the 2nd half when his numbers dropped off significantly losing over 50 points from his slugging percentage. He should be better conditioned for a full season in 2009 and should produce accordingly. 2B Ian Kinsler remains one of the best in the game while SS Michael Young is now 3B Michael Young with the emergence of prospect Elvis Andrus (acquired in the Teixeira trade). 1B Chris Davis was very impressive in his debut at Age 22. Davis hit .285 picking up 17 HRs and 55 RBI in 317 PA. Davis will be the full-time 1B this year pushing Blalock into the DH role. The Rangers will manage to score runs in bunches but will give also give them up in bunches as they continue to struggle to find pitching. They have traded away John Danks and Edinson Volquez in recent years and one wonders how their pitching staff would look with those two at the top. 70-75 Wins.

4. Seattle Mariners - The Mariners had one of the most disappointing seasons of the past decade in 2008. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Stunningly, mega acquisition SP Erik Bedard broke down. Apparently nobody in the Mariners front office ever bothered to check out the fact that Bedard has NEVER in his 5 full MLB seasons pitched more than 196 innings. So why they expected him to step in and be an innings eating workhorse at the top of their rotation was a mystery. Giving up an uber-prospect in CF Adam Jones along with 4 (count 'em 4 other players) for a guy that went on the DL for a myriad of minor ailments is questionable and even criminally bad management by their now former GM Bill Bavasi. Bavasi, who apparently was a plant determined to tear down the organization from within, managed to outdo himself and threaten Ed Wade for GM of the Year when he locked up quickly aging catcher Kenji Johjima to a 3 year, $24 million deal last April. This deal is a complete and utter mystery when you realize that Johjima is blocking one of the top catching prospects in baseball (Jeff Clement). Johjima was bareable when he was at least contributing with his bat but now that his OBP is well below .300 he hurts them both offensively and behind the plate, where his poor management of American pitchers has been noted on several occasions. This was the last straw for Seattle ownership and Bavasi was soon fired. However, things did not get much better for the Mariners. SP Jarrod Washburn was claimed off waivers in August only to be pulled back by new GM Jack Zduriencik in a move reminiscience of Bavasi at his best. Now the Mariners are on the hook to pay Washburn $10.35 million to suck in 2009 instead of finally being free of his albatross of a deal. That's over $19 million in essentially wasted payroll between just two players. It gets better when you realize that they still owe SP Carlos Silva $34 million over the next 3 seasons. Silva (another coup by Bavasi) posted an abysmal 4-15, 6.46 ERA line in 08 and there are no indications that it was a fluke. His peripheral statistics have always ticketed him as a guy that has no margin for error and those numbers came back to haunt him last season. When you add in the $9 million they're paying Miguel Batista to be a 12th guy out of the pen and it becomes clear that the Mariners are the victim of historic mismanagement in the Bavasi era. They have one of the worst and most overpaid pitching staffs in all of baseball. The Mariners have essentially $38 million (more than 1/3 of their total payroll) committed t0 four players (Batista, Washburn, Silva and Johjima) who actively hurt the team everytime they touch the baseball. It gets worse when you look at the starting lineups they will be throwing out there every night. Converted catcher Russell Branyan will be the starting 1B, oft-injured Jose Lopez is penciled in at 2B and their outfield will consist Griffey (a shadow of himself), Franklin Gutierrez (OPS of .691 last year which would have been good for 56th overall among OF in MLB) and Ichiro (a singles hitter). It is going to be a long year in Seattle. The only things to look forward to are the continued improvement of SP Felix Hernandez (one of the top young talents in the game), another straight 200 hit season out of Ichiro (which will break a record for consecutive seasons) and maybe a few more HRs to Griffey's impressive career total. 60-65 Wins.

2009 AL Predictions, Part I

2009-03-29T18:17:00.007-04:00

So here we are...its time for the American League predictions. The Rays will be hard pressed to repeat as they are again playing in the toughest division in baseball and both the Red Sox and Yankees have improved their already formidable clubs. The Blue Jays (a 87 win team in 2008) will be lucky to take home 4th place and even the Orioles have improved (at least on offense). The Angels once again disappointed in 2008 by getting beat early in the playoffs. The White Sox surprised pretty much everyone by making the playoffs after going down to the wire with a surprising Minnesota Twins. The Twins battled for the AL Central crown all season long with great defense, timely hitting, and surprisingly good pitching despite the off-season losses of Johan Santana and Carlos Silva from their rotation. The Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time since 1993 and that is simply unacceptable in the Bronx. The Rays caught lightning in a bottle and ran the table for the season, in the playoffs and all the way into the World Series. Unfortunately for them, their fairy tale ending came to a swift and sudden end when Cinderella was bludgeoned to death by the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies, a team that nobody thought could win and a team that nobody outside of Philadelphia wanted to win, swiftly and in convincing fashion pummeled the Rays in five games to take home their 2nd World Series trophy in team history (Sorry, that never gets old). That said, here we go.

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox - The Red Sox had one of the best teams in all of baseball last year and they proved it when they fought the Rays to a 7th game in the ALCS. Had things gone differently, the Red Sox could have easily gone on to win another World Series. However, the Rays pulled out a game 7 victory and were then quickly beat in the ensuing World Series against a well rested and hungry Philadelphia squad. The Red Sox lost out on their major goal of the off-season which was to acquire premier 1B Mark Teixeira. In the long run, not giving Teixeira a 8 year contract like the Yankees will be a good thing as its not smart to give any player a deal that long. The Red Sox were then able to reinvest a small amount of the money they had earmarked for Teixeira and roll the dice on several low-risk, high-reward reclamation projects. SP John Smoltz and SP Brad Penny were brought in to bolster the back end of the rotation, former closer Takashi Saito should help strengthen what was a surprisingly weak bullpen, OF Rocco Baldelli and OF Brad Wilkerson will replace Brandon Moss and Coco Crisp as a 4th and 5th OFs respectively. All in all, they won't cost close to what Teixeira alone would have cost and if they are even able to hit big on one of them it will have been worth it. The Sox have a great top of the rotation with hopefully a healthy Josh Beckett, an emerging Ace in SP Jon Lester and a very solid # 3 in Daisuke Matsuzaka. If either of Penny or Smoltz can provide solid innings, their staff matches up very well with the best the Yankees and Rays have to offer. On the offensive side of things, both Ortiz and Drew need to bounce back from injuries and Pedroia needs to continue his rise to stardom. Another huge question is the health of 3B Mike Lowell who underwent hip surgery in the off-season. If Lowell is able to bounce back and have a respectable year and the rest of the offense produces as expected, the Red Sox will be a very tough team to beat. The Red Sox also have that rare ability to replace from within as they still have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. 95-100 Wins.

2. Tampa Rays - The Rays made their first ever World Series in their first ever winning season. I hope they enjoyed it because I don't see them making it back in 2009. They have some huge questions in their bullpen (like the lack of a definite closer due to injuries to Percival) and their young pitching staff of Scott Kashmir, James Shields, Andy Sonnastine and Matt Garza saw more innings than they ever have before. There will likely be some fallback due to that overwork in 2009. The Rays have doubly hurt their rotation by refusing to start phenom David Price at the MLB level. Price has officially been dropped to AAA to "control his innings" but the more realistic answer is to prevent him from reaching arbitration as quickly. This cost cutting move could significantly hurt the Rays in the first couple months of the season. The addition of veteran RH bat Pat Burrell should balance a lefty heavy lineup and provide some much needed patience and on-base skills to a young Rays lineup. LF Carl Crawford should bounce back and have a great year if he is finally healthy. CF B.J. Upton will also likely continue to improve as will Rookie of the Year 3B Evan Longoria. Longoria was last year's victim of the Rays penny pinching but he still hit the ground running and was an integral part of their postseason run. Overall, the Rays should have another good year but they lack the ability to add that missing piece and are bound to suffer from a long season of work in 08. I won't be surprised if they make the playoffs in the Wild Card. I also won't be surprised if everything that could go wrong does go wrong for them. Still, I'm cautiously optimistic. 90-95 Wins.

3. New York Yankees - A good number of pundits jumped on the Yankees bandwagon once again after they drove dump trucks full of cash up to the homes of star pitchers A.J Burnett and CC Sabathia this off-season. That they also managed to snatch the premier positional free agent 1B Mark Teixeira from their arch rival Red Sox was the coup de grace of the 2008 off-season for GM Brian Cashman and the Yankees Front Office. While Sabathia and Burnett should vastly improve their rotation, neither signing occurred in a vacuum. Sabathia will be replacing a 20 game winner in Mike Mussina who retired at the end of the season. Burnett is coming off perhaps the best season of his career (funny how that happened in a contract year) but the odds of him staying healthy and pitching over 200 innings will be low. Sinkerball pitcher Chien-Ming Wang will be back in the #3 spot, a spot that suits him far better than being the #1 guy. Veteran lefty and former juicer Andy Pettitte and rookie phenom Joba Chamberlain will round out a very tough rotation in the Bronx. Offensively, the Yankees look very good on paper. If you ignore defensive ability, the Yankees have a great lineup. However, Jeter is a SS in name only and he will continue to hurt them in the field as he cannot field his position at even an average level anymore. 1B Mark Teixeira will be help improve their infield defense but the loss of 3B Alex Rodriguez for the first 1-2 months will hurt them on both sides of the ball. 2B Robinson Cano is entering what could be a make or break season for the Yankees. While he is quite solid defensively, his bat disappeared in the 1st half again and he didn't turn it on enough to make up for it down the stretch. He'll have to post an OBP well above his .305 effort in 2008 if he wants to have a future in the Bronx. Their outfield defense is questionable as well with CF Brett Gardner (expected to beat out Melky Cabrera for the starting role) as the only plus defender. Veterans Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui will return as well as OF Xavier Nady. OF/1B Nick Swisher should see a decent amount of time in the field as well and a platoon of Swisher and Nady will be an improvement in RF over Matsui. Matsui will likely have the majority of his ABs from the DH role. However, it remains to be seen whether or not aging (quite quickly apparently) C Jorge Posada will return at a level even close to his amazing 2007 effort. The odds are against him and if he cannot be a plus at catcher, the Yankees will soon see themselves having a logjam at DH once again. This issue will only compound if and when they realize that Jeter is killing them in the field with his glove. If the Yankees have another disappointing year in 2009, manager Joe Girardi will quickly find himself out of work. My bet is another 3rd place finish and some heads will roll. 90-95 Wins.

4. Toronto Blue Jays - The Blue Jays won 86 games in 2008 but still finished 4th. Then they lost pitchers A.J. Burnett to free agency, Sean Marcum to Tommy John surgery, and Dustin McGowan to a frayed labrum. Marcum might be back by the end of the season and McGowan will be back by late June if everything goes according to plan. However, former 1st round pick David Purcey will get a long look this year as he has top of the rotation talent. Roy Halladay will continue to add to his potential Hall of Fame resume as he continues to quietly be one of the best pitchers in the game today and Jesse Litsch should follow up as a solid 2008 campaign with another good year in his Age 25 season. The Jays will also throw out a good but not great offense led by RF Alex Rios and CF Vernon Wells that would allow them to compete in most any other division in baseball but not the AL East. The Blue Jays have the misfortune of being a member of the AL East and will thus be lucky to finish a solid 4th once again. 75-80 Wins.

5. Baltimore Orioles - When your major pitching addition for the 2009 season is Adam Eaton, you know you're in trouble. Eaton will be a solid addition to the Orioles rotation and he is currently penciled in as their #3 starter. Of course, the Orioles will be rolling out one of the weakest rotations in the past 20 years and Eaton shouldn't be the #3 starter on most AAA teams. The Orioles may have a respectable pitching staff in a couple years as they have some impressive pitching prospects in their minor league system but they are in no hurry to bring those prospects up too soon. Their offense should continue to improve as RF Nick Markakis is quietly becoming a superstar, CF Adam Jones should be better with another year under his belt and 2B Brian Roberts continues to be one of the top leadoff men in all of baseball. Roberts very quietly led the league with 51 doubles, notched 40 steals, and batted close to .300. The offense will also get solid secondary production from OF Luke Scott, 1B Aubrey Huff, and new acquisition UT Ty Wigginton. Wigginton will likely see time at all four corner positions and will get over 400 ABs in doing so. It will be interesting to see if OF Felix Pie (long touted as a star in waiting by the Cubs before his trade) will finally put it all together in Baltimore with regular playing time and lower expectations on a rebuilding ball club. So the Orioles should take another step in the right direction in 2009 but will not be close to the top of their division. 65-70 Wins.

To Be Continued...

2009 NL Predictions

2009-03-28T19:44:00.007-04:00

I figured I would finally get off my arse and whip out some predictions for both leagues this year. I'll probably publish the AL predictions tomorrow at some point...that is assuming a good marathon doesn't come on television, or I simply find something better to do with my time. So its been quite enjoyable to bask in the greatness that has been the Philadelphia Phillies 2008 season over the past five months. Unfortunately, that time is past and we must all look to the future. The Phillies managed to clinch their first NL Pennant since 1993 and only the 6th in their "storied" history. To say the Phillies were clearly the favorite to win the Pennant last year would be exaggerating just slightly. Most "experts" went with the vastly improved Chicago Cubs and in their defense, that team did lead the league with 97 wins. Unfortunately, they forgot that those pesky games in early October are also important. Because of this, they were quickly swept aside by the Dodgers led by late-season acquisition Manny Ramirez. The Phillies easily knocked off the Milwaukee Brewers in impressive fashion and then smashed the Dodgers with the same ease taking home the Pennant in 5 games. Out of those four teams, the Brewers will likely not be back in the mix as they lost most of their pitching staff to free agency. The Dodgers lost some pitching as well with the departure of staff ace Derek Lowe through free agency but were able to shore up the defense by acquiring defensive stud 2B Orlando Hudson and retaining premier (when healthy) SS Rafael Furcal and the ever enigmatic LF Manny Ramirez. The Cubs retooled slightly in the off-season and should be as dangerous as ever with the acquisitions of OF Milton Bradley and former Marlins closer RP Kevin Gregg. The loss of UT Mark DeRosa due to salary issues will hurt them more than they realize. It will be interesting to see which teams out-perform and make a splash in 2009...but we'll get to all that. Let's begin:

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers - As I mentioned briefly, the Dodgers spent a large sum of money retaining LF Manny Ramirez and SS Rafael Furcal. This necessitated allowing free agent SP Derek Lowe to depart as well as former closer Takashi Saito. However, they should expect continued improvement from young guys like Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier as well as the emergence of a potential star in SP Clayton Kershaw. Their biggest problem will be a lack of depth in the starting rotation as well as the lack of a legitimate game stopper at the top of that rotation. Their lineup will depend almost completely on Manny Ramirez continuing his inhuman 2nd half performance. As goes Manny, so goes the Dodgers. Other things that would concern me as a Dodgers fan would be whether or not Jonathan Broxton will actually emerge as a legitimate closer. His playoff performance in 2008 left something to be desired and will be interesting to see there are any lingering effects from Broxton having his still-beating heart ripped out of his chest by OF Matt Stairs in the 08 NLCS. All that said, their only real competition in the NL West will be the Diamondbacks. I expect it to go down to the wire with both squads. 85-90 Wins.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks - Well the DBacks not so much collapsed in 2008 but rather could quite keep up with a inspired performance by the Dodgers. Overall, the DBacks have some very intriguing young players and they should expect continued improvement as a result. OF Justin Uptin and SS Stephen Drew are both very good. Upton was just 20 years old and draws comparisons to future Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr for potential upside. Drew has a similar upside and between the two of them along with some decent supporting cast, the DBacks will be competitive. They have a great pitching staff led by twin aces in Dan Haren and Brandon Webb, a solid supporting cast with Doug Davis and John Garland and a potential star cutting his teeth in the 5th spot in Max Scherzer. The loss of 2B Orlando Hudson to a division rival will hurt but it is mitigating by opening up the starting role to super-utility guy Felipe Lopez. Lopez will compensate the loss of Hudson quite nicely. It will be harder to replace SU Juan Cruz and SP Randy Johnson (who they'll miss more than they realize) but the DBacks still have a ton of upside. Having been wrong in picking them last year, I will give them the slight nod again in 2009. Prove me wrong kids, PROVE ME WRONG. 85-90 Wins.

3. San Francisco Giants - The Giants have a great pitching staff led by the reigning NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. Lincecum was lights out in 2008 and has the potential to be a great pitcher for a long time. However, there are concerns about his long-term health due to a violent delivery. Lincecum is joined in their rotation by emerging stars SP Matt Cain (owner of one of the more impressive 14 loss seasons of the past 30 years). In the shadow of Lincecum, Cain (a former 1st round pick) gets overlooked at times. However, he is quietly becoming a very good #2 pitcher despite a 15-30 record over the past 2 seasons. Former Cy Young winners Barry Zito and Randy Johnson follow them in the rotation and Jonathan "I'm much better than my 5+ ERA suggests" Sanchez will be the #5 coming into the season. Overall, the 3 are very solid and while Zito will never even come close to living up to his albatross of a contract, he is still a serviceable back of the rotation pitcher. I expect to be pleasantly surprised by Johnson as he is just 5 wins away from being perhaps the last ever 300 game winner in baseball. He's still very effective despite entering the season at Age 45 and he can still rack up strikeouts on occasion. Sanchez (whose role is finally defined after being jerked around between relief and starting) should have a breakout season. The Giants offense is not so impressive and that is ashame as it wastes an impressive pitching staff. Free agent signing Aaron Rowand was a bust (as I predicted this time last year) and is that special kind of bust that will weigh down their payroll for another four seasons. In mystifying fashion, GM Brian Sabean repeated this special type of blunder by vastly overpaying SS Edgar Renteria. This money could have been much better spent elsewhere as Renteria has a limited upside and lacks the glove of a Orlando Cabrera (a superior free agent player who signed to play across the Bay in Oakland for far less money). The Giants simply do not have even an average offense and there is little hope for improvement in 2009. 70-75 Wins.

4. Colorado Rockies - The Rockies had pretty much everything that could go wrong in 2008 go wrong. The magic from their 2007 run was gone from the start and they were hamstrung with significant injury issues. They also had vastly disappointing performances from 2nd year man SS Troy Tulowitzki (posed for a bounce back year in 2009), OF Brad Hawpe (who took a step back last year) and the continued declines of former stars 1B Todd Helton (who still can get on base but do little else) and 3B Garrett Atkins. One of their few pleasant surprises was the emergence of a potential star in C Chris Iannetta. Their chances for 2009 took a major hit with the departure of OF Matt Holliday in a trade to Oakland. While they were able to get a decent return in OF Carlos Gomez and former A's closer Huston Street, the Rockies offense will struggle to replace his production. The Rockies also have major issues in their pitching staff that begins with the inability of SP Jeff Francis to stay healthy. (Note: Francis will start the season on the DL again in 2009.) Aaron Cook is not a true #1 but he still somehow manages to post impressive numbers without ever striking anyone out. A great sinker will do that for you. However, the Rockies are not nearly as good as they appeared to be in 2007 and perhaps not as bad as they were in 2008. They will not compete with the big guns in the division. A solid 3rd place is not out of the question, though I wouldn't be stunned to see them drop below the Giants. 70-75 Wins.

5. San Diego Padres - The Padres endured a fire sale necessitated by the ongoing divorce of their now former principle owner and his wife. As a result of this divorce and the overall collapse of the national economy, the Padres drastically cut payroll for the 2009 season. Despite this slashing of the payroll, they still decided to take on the $9 million option for OF Brian Giles. 3 or 4 years ago, this would have been a good decision as Giles was, at that point, a very good player. While he is still considered a team leader, it seems questionable to commit nearly 1/5 of the team payroll to what is basically a no-power corner outfielder who is also 38 years old. There are a few bright spots in SD, namely SP Jake Peavy and 1B Adrian Gonzalez (easily the most underrated slugger in all of baseball). Still, there is not much else and despite the recent sale of the team to Jeff Moorad, its gonna be a long time before competitive baseball is played in San Diego. 55-60 Wins.

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs - I predicted them to win the division in 2008 and they didn't disappoint. I expect them to have little issue repeating that performance in 2009. While the Cardinals appear to have slightly improved, the Reds young talent a year older, and the Astros ready to go all out in a wasted effort to win the division again, the Cubs stand head and shoulders above these teams. The Brewers are in for a hard fall from 2008's playoff appearance after losing both Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia to free agency. For the Cubs, Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome was a disappointment. He was closer to being the fielding version of Kei Igawa than the next Ichiro. He was relegated to almost 4th OF status by the end of the year. The Cubs attempted to rectify this issue by signing a great offensive threat (when healthy) in OF Milton Bradley. Bradley interacting with manager Lou Piniella should be interesting to say the least. Still, there are plenty of reasons to expect a repeat performance by the Cubs in 2009. They will miss utility man Mark DeRosa who saw time in LF, 3B and 2B while scoring over 100 runs and driving in over 90 with his bat. His trade to Cleveland was necessitated by salary constraints and the desire to sign the above-mentioned Bradley. The Cubs will continue to get solid production out of their very solid corner bats (Soriano, Ramirez, Lee, and Bradley) as well as decent numbers up the middle. The emergence of a potential perennial all-star behind the plate in C Geovanny Soto gives them solid production up and down their lineup. A very solid pitching staff is anchored by an impressive triumvirate of Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, and Ryan Dempster. They have perhaps the best 4th starter in all of baseball in LHP Ted Lilly (owner of a very impressive 32-17 record in two seasons in Chicago) and a very solid option in prospect Sean Marshall in the 5th spot of the rotation. The Cubs have a very solid bullpen anchored by Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg (both of whom will battle for the closing role due to the departure of Kerry Wood to Cleveland). Reliever Jeff Samardzija showed flashes of brilliance in a September callup as well but there are questions as to whether he will even make the team out of spring training. IF Aaron Miles will take over the super-utility role from DeRosa while Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot should provide a solid double-play combination at 2B and SS. CF is somewhat of a question mark as Fukudome does not have the range to adequately cover the position day in and day out while there are also no good backup options as CF Reed Johnson and CF Joey Gathright will round out the bench options. None of the three are even above-average in the 8 spot. Still, the Cubs are still a powerhouse and a favorite to win the division and compete for the NL Pennant. 90-95 Wins.

2. St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals don't have a rotation that compete with their division rival Chicago Cubs but they do have one of the premier pitching coaches of his generation in Dave Duncan. Duncan has managed to squeeze production out of the unlikeliest of candidates turning guys like Kyle Lohse and Jeff Weaver into productive pitchers in their time in St. Louis. Lohse was locked up (fortuitously on his part) for four more seasons shortly before the 2008 season ended and he will help a rotation led by former closer Adam Wainwright. The return of former ace Chris Carpenter from injury as well as reclamation projects like Joel Pineiro should help give the Cardinals enough pitching to compete in this division. The Cards offense will be anchored as always by the premier hitter in baseball 1B Albert Pujols. Pujols will be protected in the lineup by OFs Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel as well as the newly acquired SS Khalil Greene (who, if healthy, could have a huge season now that he's free of Petco Park). In a somewhat puzzling fashion, the Cardinals cut their starting 2B Adam Kennedy only to hand the job over to OF Skip Schumacher in Spring Training. Schumacher has not impressed so far at the position and there are major questions as to whether he can play 2B at the MLB level. I expect the Cardinals to surprise again and compete for 2nd place in the NL Central. 80-85 Wins.

3. Cincinnati Reds - The Reds have a ton of young talent on their roster and they should continue to improve as a club. The departure of veteran leaders LF Adam Dunn and RF Ken Griffey Jr will radically transform the locker room and should allow the Reds to finally focus on the future. The future for the Reds is bright with top prospects 1B Joey Votto, CF Jay Bruce, SP Edinson Volquez, and SP Johnny Cueto. They also have solid complementary players in 2B Brandon Phillips (a magician with the glove who also hits for power), 3B Edwin Encarnacion (a 3B in name only, his bat would be much better in LF), and returning pitchers Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. They also have the best hitting pitcher in all of baseball with new acquisition and 5th starter Micah Owings. The Reds are my darkhorse candidate to surprise this year in the NL. 75-80 Wins.

4 . Milwaukee Brewers - So the Brewers mortgaged the future and doubled down when the acquired CC Sabathia last summer to make a playoff run. The Brewers, knowing that Sabathia was a rental, pitched him as often as possible and he carried them into the playoffs only to run out of steam in the NLDS. After Shane Victorino hammered a grand slam in Game 2 of the NLDS, that was all she wrote. The Brewers are drastically changed with the departures of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets to free agency and will have trouble coming up with enough pitching to compete. There are reasons to be optimistic in Milwaukee. Young starters Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra will be a year older and should provide stability to their rotation in 2009 and their offensive core is still very solid. Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, and Ryan Braun anchor a young core of offense that is surrounded by complimentary pieces like veteran CF Mike Cameron, 3B Bill Hall (who should improve if given stability after being jerked around the last few years learning new positions), and RF Corey Hart (perhaps the most unlucky player in the Majors last year). I like the Brewers a lot and they impressed me with their legitimate contract offer to CC Sabathia. This is a team that wants to win and wants to compete with the big boys. Given a different economic climate or a salary cap structure like the NFL's and the Brewers would be far more competitive. They had the misfortunate in 2008 of running headfirst into destiny by facing the Phillies in the 1st round. I expect to see them back in the playoff hunt in 2010 but not before. 75-80 Wins.

5. Houston Astros - When you have Ed Wade as your GM, all sorts of crazy things happen. Top players get traded for pennies on the dollar (Abreu for CJ Henry, Lidge for Michael Bourn and some magic beans, etc etc). Wade also traded what little remained of the Astros farm system (always historically weak to begin with) to Baltimore for SS (in name only) Miguel Tejada. Tejada promptly aged a few years thanks to a faulty birth certificate but still performed at a respectable level in Houston. Lance Berkman is now in his fat Elvis stage of his career (literally as the resemblance is eerie). I'm half-expecting Berkman to start wearing sequined jumpsuits to take batting practice at this point. There is little to get excited about in Houston. The Michael "HE'S A 5TH OUTFIELDER, ED!!!" Bourn experiment was a colossal failure but one that kept on giving for most of the year despite a pathetic .288 OBP (in 514 PAs). Bourn was finally at least moved down in the lineup but still was rolled out there day after day after day. Bourn is not and never was a legit prospect but sometimes this lesson is harder to learn than others, especially for Ed Wade, owner of a fetish for no-hit speedy outfielders. Did I mention that Ed Wade is a jackass? The Astros managed to acquire Pudge "I was good 5 years ago" Rodriguez to shore up their catching situation but will throw out a lineup (and rotation) that is largely unchanged from 2008. RF Hunter Pence should be improved from 2008 and Carlos Lee will provide the same great bat and brutal defense that he always does to round out the outfield. Matsui and Tejada are decent up the middle (offensively at least) but 3B will be a black hole again and their pitching staff is full of question marks once you get past perennial Ace Roy Oswalt. Simply put, both Ed Wade and owner Drayton McLane Jr. suffer from a "Win Now" mentality. Because of this mindset, the Astros will continue to mortgage the future in the dim hope of a surprising regular season run that will validate (in their minds) their madness. The Astros roster is laden with washed up and never was players and their farm system is to prospects as the Gobi Desert is to flora. 65-70 Wins.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates - As usual, there isn't much to look forward to in Pittsburgh. They made some good trades last season, cashing in on soon to be free agent Jason Bay but they did not manage to get any of Boston's top talent out of that trade. Still, they did get quantity out of their trade if not top quality. The acquisition of former top prospect Jose Tabata from the NY Yankees should be an interesting one to follow. He has all the talent in the world but it remains to be seen whether or not he can put it all together and become a baseball player. Other reasons for optimism include the emergence of a good offensive catcher in Ryan Doumit as well as heralded prospects Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. If McCutchen develops as expected he will push gold glover CF Nate McLouth to a corner spot and give the Pirates a good outfield for the first time in years. Either way, its going to be a long year in Pittsburgh but there appears to be some little light at the end of the tunnel. 60-65 Wins.

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies - I won't reinvent the wheel as I just wrote in depth about the Phillies 2009 season. Simply put, I expect some fallback from a great run in 2008 but I still solidly expect a repeat as the NL East division champ. The good news is that outside of Victorino, no Phillie regular had a career year. Their core is outstanding. In fact, they have one of the best cores in all of baseball. This is the year I expect Chase Utley to finally show the world how great a player he truly is. Howard and Rollins should bounce back as well and Werth should impress as a full-time player. It'll be interesting. 85-90 Wins. (My personal guess is 89 wins but I like to give ranges for this type of stuff).

2. New York Metropolitans - The Mets, the Mets, where to begin. The Mets went into the off-season with major issues at the corner outfield positions, their bullpen, 2B and the bottom of their rotation. They went out and solved their 8th and 9th inning pitching issues by signing top free agent closer Francisco "I'm not as good as my Saves record suggests" Rodriguez and trading quantity for former Mariners closer J.J. Putz. IF Putz can stay healthy and IF K-Rod can handle pitching in NY, both of those moves could vastly improve their bullpen. However, it’s kinda like patching one hole in the raft only to see another couple of holes open up. Their starting rotation is full of questions and it is somewhat questionable as to whether aging 1B Carlos Delgado can repeat his hot 2nd half in 2008. They have premier talent in CF (Beltran), 3B (Wright) and SS (Reyes) and emerging talent in the sometimes overlooked DanielMurphy but I simply see far too many question marks in NY for them to win the division. I expect a good run at the Wild Card for them though and they will make things interesting for the Phillies. 85-90 Wins.

3. Atlanta Braves - The Braves went out and completely revamped their starting rotation. Of course, I thought they had a great rotation going into 2008 only to see 3/5 of it collapse before Memorial Day. The acquisition of Javier Vazquez via trade and two top free agent signings in veteran SP Derek Lowe and Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami should give the Braves a vastly improved rotation in 09. Jair Jurrgens was impressive in 2008 and should only get better with experience. While Tom Glavine rounds out the rotation for now, the Braves have several top prospects that should push the future Hall of Famer for playing time as the season goes on. The Braves hitting is not quite so good and it will limit their ability to make a move this year. Chipper Jones and C Brian McCann will continue to anchor their offense and when Jones is healthy, they will be able to score runs. Jeff Francoeur (once dubbed "The Natural" by Sports Illustrated) has been a huge disappointment (at least to those that don't understand peripheral statistics). They simply do not have enough offensive firepower and depth to compete for the full year. They will be that pesky team that steals wins from the division leaders. 80-85 Wins.

4. Florida Marlins - The Fish finally got a new stadium deal and that means that they MIGHT consider actually hanging on to some of their young talent. That stadium won't be ready for another few years and neither will the Marlins most likely. They have a very solid young pitching staff anchored by emerging ace Ricky Nolasco. Their offense is centered around one of the top talents in the game in SS Hanley Ramirez. Their team defense and bullpens are a complete joke and this will sink their chances of competing. Given a little bit of monetary investment and some seasoning, the Fish could win their 3rd World Series since their inception. However, thanks to the cheapest and probably worst owner in all of sports, that won't happen anytime soon. Breakout player of the year - CF Cameron Maybin. 75-80 Wins.

5. Washington Nationals - The Nats are a complete and utter joke. Their offense will be improved on paper with the signing of LF/1B Adam Dunn but they will not score enough runs nor will they prevent enough with their pitching staff to be taken seriously. Luckily for them, they will have first crack at premier prospect Steve Strasburg in the June draft. The Nats have approximately 1,304 OF on their major league roster but will have issues putting together a respectable MLB lineup. 3B Ryan Zimmerman should continue to improve but there isn't much to look forward to in Washington this summer. 55-60 Wins.

So there you have it...that's the NL. Tomorrow, I'll try and roll out the AL predictions. This ended up being a bit longer than planned but fun nonetheless.

Go Phillies!

Predictions & Thoughts on the 09 Season in Philly

2009-03-25T20:24:00.005-04:00

You see that picture to the right? That's the past. Its finished, its history. If the Phillies have that photo in their mind they will have a off year in 2009. If they can remember that while winning the World Series is the most difficult thing to do in baseball, repeating is even harder, they've got a shot. It hasn't been done by an NL team in over 30 years and honestly, the Phillies will have the odds stacked against them to do so again. Thanks the a huge increase in the budget, newly minted GM Ruben Amaro Jr was largely able to keep the Phillies core together. The only significant departure was long-time LF Pat Burrell. His replacement, LF Raul Ibanez, is the only major addition. The Phillies will have to rely on their core players to have better years to repeat as champions. No matter how the pundits and the Front Office try to spin it, losing a good RH bat in Burrell and replacing him with a LH bat like Ibanez will hurt this team in games throughout the year, especially in the later innings. That said, let's breakdown some of the good and bad news heading into 2009.

Good News:

1. No Career Years in 08 - Other than Victorino, none of the Phillies core players had what you could call a career year. Rollins and Utley were hampered by major injuries that sapped their production throughout most of the year. Ryan Howard had another off year, Burrell disappeared in the 2nd half and 3B and C were largely blackholes as far as offensive production was concerned. Rollins and Utley should both be much closer to their 2007 numbers and that can only help the team replace some of what was lost with Burrell heading to Tampa. Howard should hopefully build on his huge September and bounce back to somewhere between his 2006 MVP campaign and solid 2007 effort. If Howard can post an OPS+ in the 140-160 range again, the offense will be improved.

2. Depth in the System - For the first time in years, the Phillies have some actual (perceived anyway) depth in the minors. Guys like SP Carlos Carrasco, IF Jason Donald, and C Lou Marson could all conceivably see action in a Phillies uniform this year. All three are pretty much MLB ready prospects that could very well help the team stay competitive. All three will also likely be on the roster in 2010 at the latest.

Bad News:

1. Injuries - The Phillies were very lucky in that they didn't really lose anyone to injury last year. Other than RP Tom Gordon (remember him?), the only Phillie to go down for any significant time period was SS Jimmy Rollins and that was in April. Feliz missed a couple of weeks but otherwise, the Phillies were remarkably healthy. Odds are that isn't gonna happen again in 2009. The pitching staff all pitched a ton of innings thanks to pitching all the way till the end of October and guys like Hamels especially pitched far more innings than they had ever done so before. There will likely be more injuries and a hangover effect in the pitching staff because of this (See 2006 White Sox for an example).

2. Starting Rotation - Remember that great rotation that dominated the regular season and won in October based on its overwhelming talent? Yeah, me neither. Other than Cole Hamels, the Phillies have several 3 and 4 starters. Let's face it, Jamie Moyer will be 46 this year. The number of starters that were effective at that age can be counted on one hand. I posted an article about this very subject a few months back when I actually had the time to post my inane ramblings regularly. So we cannot expect another great year out of Jamie. Brett Myers, owner of the infamous 5-cent head, is a huge question mark as always. Logic tells us that he is in a contract year and will pitch as good as he ever has. Reality tells us that this is Brett Myers and we should never expect anything out of him. Mr. October Joe Blanton is another mystery. He honestly wasn't that good coming over from Oakland but he still managed to go undefeated in a Phillies uniform. He barely averaged 5 innings per start and he was not dominating by any means. His most impressive moment came at the plate against Edwin Jackson in the World Series. The 5th spot is still a toss-up between two fairly solid candidates in Chan Ho Park and J.A. Happ. I'd rather see the rookie Happ get the nod and push Park to long-relief out of the pen but I have a feeling that Park will start the season in the rotation after a very strong Spring. Either way, its not a huge issue for the team.

3. Bullpen - The odds of Lidge being perfect again are about the same as newly extended setup guy Ryan Madson throwing 97 mph all season long. Mark my words, Lidge will have a blown save by April 30th and the Philadelphia press will have a collective aneurysm the day it happens. Madson won't be the dominating force he was in Sept and Oct and will again be on the hot seat for the fickle fanbase. Romero is on a vacation until June 1st thanks to his "misunderstanding" of the MLB Steroid Policy and Scott Eyre will be the only lefty available which could hurt us during the first two months.

Overall, the Phillies seem poised to repeat as NL East champs for the 3rd straight season. None of their division rivals really improved all that much. The Mets still have huge question marks in the outfield, in their rotation, and at 2B. Despite the additions of JJ Putz and Francisco Rodriguez, the Mets are still not as good as the Phillies. The Fish are still a dangerous team that could have something special if they committed even a little bit of money to retaining their arbitration eligible players instead of trading them. They have a great rotation and some interesting pieces on offense but their defense and bullpen are a joke. The Braves have a good rotation (as usual) but not enough offense and the Nats will be lucky to win 70 games. The Phillies won't win 92 games again as the division has tightened up a bit from last year but I still like them to win the division. My educated guess is a win total in the 88-90 win range and that that will be enough to take the division again. At that point, its a crapshoot in the playoffs.

Other Predictions for 2009:

1. Cole Hamels - Will miss at least a month from injuries. He pitched a ton of innings in 08 and he's young. He has a bad history of injuries and I can't imagine him having 2 straight injury free years. My guess is he puts in something like 25-28 starts and 180 IP in 2009. I'll take it as long as he doesn't miss anything more than that.

2. Chase Utley - Will have a career year. Coming off major hip surgery, I expect Utley to have "that year". My guess is he puts it all together and posts ridiculous numbers in 2009. I'm talking something like .330 AVG, 35 HR, 120 RBI with gold-glove defense at 2B.

3. Jimmy Rollins - 3rd straight gold glove and a bounce back in his power numbers as he is fully healed from the ankle sprain that sapped his power swing.

4. Shane Victorino - 2 DL stints and numbers around what he posted in 2008 but lower overall totals due to time missed. I don't honestly expect him to be much better than he was last year. Still, he's a productive piece to have around and he's a great defensive CF.

5. Jayson Werth - You heard it here...Jayson Werth will hit 30 HRs in 2009. He'll also strike out 150 times and take a ton of pitches.

6. Raul Ibanez - Less than 20 HRs with a good average but lower than hoped for on-base skills.

7. Ryan Howard - 45 HR, .270 AVG, .375 OBP and a decrease in his strikeouts for the 3rd straight season. His defense will still suck and he'll always piss us all off by swinging weakly at balls well out of the zone from LHP.

8. Pedro Feliz - Will not be the regular 3B by the end of the year. His back will hamper him all year long but his glove will still be very good when he's healthy. My guess is an OBP under .300. Prove me wrong Pedro, prove me wrong!

9. Carlos Ruiz - Will get too much playing time. He'll get more playing time than his bat warrants as his defensive reputation will ensure he gets penciled in night after night.

So that's it for now...I'm going with 89 wins and another division crown.

Curt Makes It Official

2009-03-23T21:55:00.003-04:00

You've had a hell of a career Curt.

~tips cap~

In honor of you making it official, I will repost my previous homage to your great career.

From June 20, 2008:

Curt Schilling announced earlier today that he will undergo season (and likely career) ending surgery on his injured right shoulder. He has been attempting to rehab the shoulder since the early spring when it was determined he suffered a partially torn labrum. While the rehab efforts have strengthened the shoulder substantially, the underlying injury is still there and Curt has been unable to throw off a mound without a substantial level of pain. So likely, Curt's career is over and what a tremendous career it has been. Curt has made a name for himself over the past 15 years as the preeminent big game pitcher of his generation. He led two separate teams to World Series victories and has 3 World Series rings in 4 total appearances. During the regular season he has been no less impressive, winning well over 200 games while playing for the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox. He has always been a winner and a dominating right-handed power pitcher. He is also well known for his charitable contributions and strong Christian family values. He put as much effort towards those aspects of his life as he did towards pitching. In support of his Hall of Fame candidacy, I will breakdown his impressive resume even further:

Regular Season: Schilling won an impressive 216 games in the regular season while losing just 146 (WL% .597). His career ERA was almost a full run lower than the league average (3.46 vs. 4.41) and he struck out 3116 in just 3261 IP(8.60 K/9). More impressively he walked just 711 batters in his career. Unlike most power pitchers, he demonstrated outstanding control on top of great velocity. His 4.38 K/BB ratio over the course of his career shows how dominating he was on the mound. You had to swing the bat to get on base with him. He struck out more than 300 batters 3 times in his career and finished 2nd in the Cy Young vote 3 times as well yet they weren't the same 3 seasons as the 300 K years. He posted the best season by a non-Cy Young winner since the invention of the award yet managed to lose to teammate Randy Johnson who posted a truly historic season in 2002. His season score for that season was over 100 points higher than that of the average Cy Young season. He was a 6 time All-Star and he finished in the top 10 for MVP voting twice in his career. He also had 3 2o-win seasons as well.

Postseason: He posted an outstanding 10-2 record in 19 career postseason starts with a 2.23 ERA in 133.1 IP. He struck out 120 batters while walking just 25. As stated earlier, he won the World Series 3 times with 2 different teams and started a World Series game for 3 separate teams starting all the way back in 1993 with the Philadelphia Phillies. He carried seemingly cursed Red Sox team to its first championship in 86 years while pitching on one leg. He opted to have his ligaments sutured to bone of his foot rather than opt for season-ending surgery. The resulting "Bloody Sock" game is already legendary and it simply demonstrates what a team player Curt was. He risked his career to help lead the Red Sox to victory in 2004.

2005-2007: He was never really the same after that 2004 season. In 2005, he struggled as result of his prior injuries and posted a career worst 5.69 ERA in just 11 starts. However he bounced back and found ways to win despite a drop in velocity. No longer a power pitcher he still won with shocking regularity in the final two seasons of his career. He posted a 24-15 record in 55 starts those two seasons along with an impressive 3.93 ERA.

Some of his numbers (especially his career win total) don't necessarily scream Hall of Fame but he should easily make it in. He dominated his opponents in big games and always rose to the occasion. He was a winner over the course of his career and in his peak seasons, he was one of the best in the game.

Kent & Utley - A Quick Comparison

2009-01-22T18:14:00.004-05:00

2B Jeff Kent retired today. Most consider Kent to be an easy Hall of Fame pick and rightfully so. He managed to play 2B to the ripe age of 40 and put up some pretty impressive numbers while doing so. He won an MVP and was a key piece on several teams in his career. A closer look at his stats shows that he and the Phillies own Chase Utley compare favorably. Both broke into the league at Age 24. Both hit .239 in their rookie season. Both are/were middle of the lineup threats that terrified opposing pitchers. A quick glance at the numbers show that up to Age 29, Utley has been the superior player in almost all respects. Kent didn't really enter his prime until his breakout Age 29 season where he finally cracked the 100 RBI mark for the first time. He subsequently knocked in over 100 runs 8 times in the next 9 seasons, just missing 100 RBIs in an injury-shortened 2003 season at Age 35. Utley on the other hand just turned 30 this off-season and has already compiled 4 100 RBI seasons while posting an OPS+ at or over 125 all 4 years. As of Age 29, Utley is clearly the superior player. If you look at other career indicators, Utley usually comes out ahead:

Career AVG:

Utley - .298
Kent - .290

Career OBP:

Utley - .375
Kent - .356

Career SLG:

Utley - .526
Kent - .500

Career OPS+

Utley - 128
Kent - 123

Utley is also clearly more of a threat on the basepaths with a far better SB%. In 17 seasons, Kent has been in 5 All-Star games while Utley has managed to make 3 All-Star teams in his first 5 full seasons. Kent is a 4-time Silver Slugger while Utley already has 3 such awards. If Utley is able to come close to replicating Jeff Kent's success after Age 30, he will clearly be a 1st Ballot Hall of Famer and one of the top 2B of all time. So far, as of Age 29, Utley has been the far superior player. The next several seasons should be interesting to see if he can continue his success deept into his 30s like Kent has been able to do.

Phillies Lock Up Werth

2009-01-21T18:05:00.003-05:00

At this point I don't know what to think about Ruben Amaro Jr. As an ardent basher of Amaro since his days under Ed Wade, I have constantly criticized even the smallest moves by him. This week, Amaro is starting to prove why he was selected to be Pat Gillick's replacement. What was just recently described as a minefield for the Phillies has been quickly and efficiently cleared by the new GM. Amaro has not only been able to quickly avoid arbitration with every eligible player other than 1B Ryan Howard, he has done so with the minimum of long-term cost.

Most impressively, the Phillies signed RF Jayson Werth to a 2 year, $10 million deal. Werth will make $3 million in 2009 and $7 million in 2010. This deal avoids arbitration, keeps Werth in RF through his peak years, and give the Front Office cost certaintly when they need it most. Werth could have possibly gone out in 09, had a great year, and significantly increase a potential payday through Free Agency next fall. He chose the safer, more certain route and took the guaranteed money. The Phillies will have very few holes to fill in 2010 thanks to locking up guys like Werth and reliever Ryan Madson. Pedro Feliz will be gone but could very possibly be replaced by prospect Jason Donald. Brett Myers will be a free agent but guys like Carlos Carrasco and Kyle Drabek could very well be knocking at the door next fall.

All in all, its been a pretty solid off-season for the Phillies. They've kept the core together, vastly increased payroll, and not hamstrung themselves long-term. So far, so good.

Revised Off-Season Grade for Rube

2009-01-20T21:57:00.003-05:00

Last week I blithely gave Rube a C- so far for his off-season efforts to improve the Phillies roster. However, much has changed since that grading. Perhaps Rube is an ardent reader (doubtful) and perhaps he is finally able to show all of us what was reputed to be his strength all along...contracts and negotiation. He has been able to lock up two keys in our World Series victory by signing both RP Ryan Madson and SP Cole Hamels to separate 3 year deals. Madson will now make $12 million over the length of that contract and has given up two years of free agency for guaranteed money. Hamels gave the Phillies some level of cost certainty by forgoing the arbitration process and signing for $20.5 million over the next 3 seasons. Hamels will have one year of arbitration after this new contract expires but he has demonstrated a clear desire to stay in Philly and be part of a winning franchise. Rube was also able to avoid arbitration with Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton for $3.15 and $5.475 million respectively. All of these are good, fair deals that will help the Phillies compete for the next couple years. The Phillies have been able to guarantee a stable bullpen and have rewarded their young Ace for his monumental playoff performance.

That said, I hereby raise Rube's grade a whole letter from C- to B-. If Rube is able to win arbitration against Howard, and/or sign another big piece like a Ben Sheets, he will get another raise into the B+/A- range.

All in all a good week for Rube.

Howard's Millions

2009-01-20T20:17:00.004-05:00

Is Ryan Howard worth $18 million a year? Honestly, is anyone worth $18 million a year? The answer to both questions is a resounding NO! The real question is this: Will Ryan Howard make $18 million in 2009? The answer to that question is far more uncertain. Howard and the Phillies Front Office exchange arbitration numbers today and to nobody's surprise, Howard requested a ridiculous amount of money despite continuing his decline from his monumental 2006 MVP campaign. About the only thing Howard did as well as in 2007 is hit HRs and drive men in. In every other aspect of the game from batting average to defense at first base, Howard got worse. The question now is whether or not his decline is worth either an 80% pay raise or only a 40% raise.

Its looking more and more as if Ryan Howard will never sign a long-term deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. The recent signings of core players like SP Cole Hamels and RP Ryan Madson merely reinforces this belief. The Phillies don't see Howard as deserving of AROD money or even Jeter money and Howard won't accept anything less than that. Because of this impasse, Howard will almost certainly not finish out his arbitration years in Philadelphia. If the Phillies are able to succeed in winning this year's arbitration hearing, Howard could very well be here a couple more years as he will still be somewhat affordable. If the Phillies are forced to payout $18 million this year and God knows how much in 2010 (maybe $22 million?) then Howard will soon find himself in a new city wearing a different uniform. As Howard is one of the most prodigious sluggers to ever wear red pinstripes, this will be ashame. However, there is almost no way the Phillies would be willing to resign him for that type of money, especially when almost every metric shows that Howard either is or soon will be entering the decline phase of his career.

Ryan Howard has the misfortune of getting off to a late start for a variety of reasons. The biggest reason of course being veteran Jim Thome blocking him at 1B for almost a 1.5 seasons. As a college draft pick, he also got off to a late start. Thus, he is entering his Age 29 season and has yet to see Free Agency and won't see it till the ripe old age of 32. That being said, I cannot pass judgment on or blame a guy in his position for trying to make as much money as he possibly can in what will likely be a short career.

The bottom line is that Ryan Howard and the Phillies Front Office have goals that cannot and will not co-exist and because of this conflict, Howard will be gone at some point in the next few years. My gut tells me that Howard overreached in his request for $18 million and that he will likely "lose" his arbitration hearing. The silver lining for Howard is that by "losing" he will still get a 40% raise over last year. We should all be so lucky.

Oh...and one final thing: WORLD FVCKING CHAMPIONS!!!

Off-Season Thoughts/Hall of Fame Ruminations

2009-01-14T20:18:00.002-05:00

Phillies Off-Season Grade= C- (So Far/Subject To Change)

I thought about doing two separate posts to grade the Phillies off-season and bitch about Jim Rice making the Hall of Fame. But hell, I'm lazy so here we all with one great big post. But I digress.

So far, Amaro's signings of Ibanez and Moyer to costly deals are looking worse by the day. At this point, it appears that Amaro brutally overpaid for both players and has seriously hamstrung the team financially. When you consider the impending arbitration raises, dead money tied up in guys like Jenkins and Eaton and now paying last year's prices for 2 aging free agents, the Phillies lack flexibility to improve the club if needed. The Mets got a bit better, the Braves revamped their rotation and the Fish are always dangerous due to their great young pitching. While I would still give the Phillies the inside track and taking their 3rd straight NL East crown, the road hasn't gotten any easier. If the Mets are able to fill their remaining hole by signing a legitimate #3 pitcher like Oliver Perez or even Ben Sheets (both strong rumors), then the Phillies could be facing an uphill fight.

The Phillies will start the season with question marks at 2B and possibly 3B as both Chase Utley and Pedro Feliz are returning from major off-season surgeries. While Feliz will likely be ready by Opening Day, Utley will probably not be. The Phillies could fill this temporary hole with UT Eric Bruntlett or scrapheap pickup 2B Marcus Giles (He was once an all-star...seriously WTF happened?!?) or bring up prospect IF Jason Donald. Likely, knowing the Phillies penchant for veterans, Bruntlett will start at 2B and Giles will make the team on the bench until Utley is back. Donald will start in AAA as either the SS or 3B with 3B being more likely.

Honestly, considering the Phillies are coming off their first World Series victory in 28 years, its hard to really complain about any of these moves. However, they don't appear to have read the market well and they also don't appear to be taking advantage of the drastically dropping prices of 2nd tier free agents. As they jumped the gun in November, they have no money left to spend. In the past week alone, the Red Sox have managed to load up on low-risk, high-reward guys like Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Rocco Baldelli, and Takashi Saito. Any of those four would have fit very well on the Phillies roster. Unfortunately, there was no room left as Amaro is banking the upcoming season on a costly 46-year-old starting pitcher and 37-year-old leftfielder.

The Phillies are clearly not done making moves. Their bench is very lefty heavy with Dobbs, Stairs and Jenkins. Jenkins is unmovable due to his albatross of a contract and Dobbs isn't going anywhere as he's currently the best pinchhitter in baseball. That leaves Matt Stairs as the lefty without a chair when the music stops. He's limited defensively as he's really more of a DH/1B guy and we already have two other lefty bats on the bench. New acquisition C Ronny Paulino and UT Eric Bruntlett are solid bets to make the team but C Chris Coste is likely gone. Replacing Coste and Stairs won't be hard and both will likely be traded or outright released by Opening Day. The Phillies main need is a righthanded OF bat as they currently don't have a player on the 40 man roster that can fill that role. A guy that could spot start in CF would be a plus as the Phillies next best option inside the organization would be Single A Clearwater "prospect" Quentin Berry. Berry is not nearly ready and it is unlikely he'll ever be more of a fringe guy. Thus, if Vic goes down, Werth has to move over to CF where he is below average defensively and Jenkins/undetermined outfielder is shoved into a starting role in RF. The Phillies also need another lefty arm for the bullpen as JC Romero can't play until 1 June after violating the league's substance abuse policy. Right now, the Phillies will probably use JA Happ in that role but Happ has not been impressive in relief. Other internal options include going with only one lefty in Scott Eyre and loading up on right-handed relievers. That MIGHT work but the Phillies will really miss have a top lefty setup guy in the pen. There's also long-shot prospect RP Antonio Bastardo who has posted impressive L/R splits and a high K rate so far in A, AA and the Dominican Winter League. His BB rate has not been nearly as impressive and he has extreme flyball tendencies so he could be problematic. Still, you can almost guarantee he'll get a long look in spring training. The Phillies could easily surprise us all by signing one of the remaining top reliever free agents. Righty Juan Cruz is still available and he would be a great candidate for a long-term solution in the pen. He'll cost the Phillies their 2nd round pick as he's a Type A free agent and he won't come cheap. He's a top flight reliever though and he can easily step into Ryan Madson's shoes after the season as Madson likely won't be back due to Free Agency. Will Ohman and Joe Beimel are also possibilities. Personally, I don't see them signing anyone for the pen. They'll likely add another outfielder and maybe even get something of value for Coste and Stairs through trades but I don't expect Amaro to add anymore payroll...at least not until he's taken care of all of the arbitration eligible guys. Until the ownership group knows how much money it needs, they likely won't ok anymore increases to the budget. Right now, the Phillies look to come in with a payroll in the $115-120 million range, or roughly $10-15 million higher than the highest previous payroll. They could go above that with no major issues but somehow, given their track record, I just don't see it happening. So here's what the roster would look like if the season started today:

Starters:

1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley*
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Pedro Feliz*
C Carlos Ruiz
LF Raul Ibanez
CF Shane Victorino
RF Jayson Werth

Bench:

C Ronny Paulino
1B/3B Greg Dobbs
OF Geoff Jenkins
UT Eric Bruntlett
OF Matt Stairs/C Chris Coste

Rotation:

#1 - LHP Cole Hamels
#2 - RHP Brett Myers
#3 - RHP Joe Blanton
#4 - LHP Jamie Moyer
#5 - JA Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Chan Ho Park, Carlos Carrasco, Adam Eaton

Bullpen:

CP Brad Lidge
RHP Ryan Madson
LHP JC Romero*
RHP Chan Ho Park (Likely he ends up here and not as the 5th starter)
LHP Scott Eyre
RHP Clay Condrey
RHP Chad Durbin

Longshots:

2B Marcus Giles (if indeed the dead can be raised...)
SS Jason Donald (depends on if Feliz and Utley aren't ready and is Spring Training performance)
LF John Mayberry Jr (outside shot at being the RH bat off the bench)
RHP Carlos Carrasco (will likely start in AAA)
C Lou Marson (almost definitely won't be on the 25 man barring a major rash of injuries at catcher)
RHP Drew Carpenter (almost certainly won't make the roster outside of a spectacular spring and some injuries)

* Obviously the Phillies will need to fill these holes as Utley, Romero and Feliz very well might not be ready by Opening Day.

So far, I'm grading this off-season as a C- as I strongly feel that Amaro hasn't really accomplished any of his stated goals and he vastly overpaid for Ibanez and Moyer. The roster still lacks a right-handed bat, they didn't get any younger or more athletic and there are some very legitimate injury concerns.

Hall Of Fame Elections and Travesties

So Monday came and went and with it an absolute travesty occurred. While LF Rickey Henderson deservedly was elected with nearly 95% of the vote in his first year of eligibility, the pity train/propaganda train came roaring into the station with the election of LF/DH Jim Rice. There was a reason that Jim Rice hadn't made the Hall yet. Actually there are many, many reasons he hadn't been elected yet. The main reason is that he simply wasn't that great of a ballplayer. By the stats, Rice is clearly in the Hall of Very Good players with guys like Jim Edmonds, Alan Trammell, Dick Allen, Tommy John (well now at least) and all those other good but not great players. He was a fearsome slugger for several years and a very good hitter for several more but he was limited defensively, didn't get on base enough, and played over 1/4th of his games as a DH. It literally took 15 years and a massive national propaganda by a Boston dominated national sports media to get Rice in. By the numbers of his era and by modern sabermetric standards, Jim Rice is simply NOT a Hall of Famer. His presence in the Hall of Fame drops the bar for future elections. After all, if Jim Rice is now in, why not guys like Dick Allen (superior offensive numbers in a tougher hitters era), Albert Belle (far superior numbers), teammate Dwight Evans (never even got 5% despite arguably better numbers), Bobby Abreu (far superior offense and even defense sadly) etc etc. Rice didn't hit any of the traditional benchmarks for Hall entry including hits, RBIs, HRs, or OBP. He did manage to post one very "impressive" stat during his supposed peak years (Age 29 - Age 32). During this time period he managed to lead the league in Grounding Into Double Plays (GIDP) all four seasons and he actually had more GIDP than HRs during those four seasons (131 GIDP vs. 118 HR). There aren't many HOF sluggers you can say that about. In fact, I believe he's the only one. Rice is notable for having GIDP well over 300 times in his career. So for as many moonshot homeruns he hit, he hit into almost as many backbreaking, inning-ending double plays for his career (315 GIDP vs. 382 HR). That stat is a microcosm of Jim Rice's career. He was very good at times but he is not and should never be a Hall of Famer. Had Jim Rice played for the Brewers or Royals or any other 2nd division club, he never would have made it past his 1st ballot. However, Rice played for Boston and thus he is a Hall of Famer. Just sad.

Some Thoughts On Raul Ibanez

2008-12-17T20:28:00.004-05:00

Now that the dust has settled a bit after the Phillies somewhat surprising acquisition of another left-handed bat in LF Raul Ibanez, we can step back from the ledge and look at this deal with a little bit more clarity. It's beginning to be clear that the Phillies simply weren't interested in bring back long-time Phillie Pat Burrell. As Burrell was apparently not an option, the list of acceptable LF options was quite slim. Out of the players available (Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey Jr, Garret Anderson, Juan Rivera), Ibanez was definitely near the top of the list just after Manny. Raul has his downsides and they appear to be vast on paper. He's 36 going on 37, below average defensively and he doesn't hit leftys very well if you look at his career numbers. However, he hits for good average, hits over .300 for his career with runners in scoring position, crushes rightys and he has been very durable over the past several years. Defensively, switching from Burrell to Ibanez is a wash. Neither is gonna be lugging home a Gold Glove anytime soon. Ibanez hits for slightly less power but higher average than Pat and he's gonna strike out a bit less. With Utley, Howard, and Werth already in our lineup, Burrell's power won't be missed nearly as much as we all fear. Having a good, high-average bat in the middle of the lineup could actually dramatically increase our offensive performance. Think of it as switching from a V8 that tends to stall out every so often to a much more reliable V6 that chugs along day after day. Ibanez and his higher batting average could be just the thing our offense has been looking for. It all depends on where he bats in the lineup. I've had this discussion several times over the past week or so and I've thrown out all sorts of wacky lineups that manage to avoid the much feared Utley/Howard/Ibanez lefty trifecta at the heart of the lineup. As fun as it would be to do that, there are easy solutions that avoid it. We could use either of the following lineups:

SS Jimmy Rollins
RF Jayson Werth
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
CF Shane Victorino
LF Raul Ibanez
3B Pedro Feliz
C Carlos Ruiz

OR

SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Shane Victorino
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
RF Jayson Werth
LF Raul Ibanez
3B Pedro Feliz
C Carlos Ruiz

Both of the above lineups avoid the dreaded TRI-LOOGY scenario and both offer their advantages. Both Werth and Victorino had coming out parties in 2008 that proved conclusively that they are great complimentary players to have on a team. Both have very good speed and both are tough outs at the plate. Vic offers blazing speed and an ability to turn a single or a walk into a double with his legs. Vic led the team in batting average and showed good power numbers for a centerfielder. Granted he's not your prototypical # 5 hitter but he could serve as a plate setter for the bottom half of the lineup. Having him bat in front of Ibanez in the 6-hole could very well give Ibanez a ton of RBI opportunities. Putting Jayson Werth in the 5-hole is a more traditional approach. Werth has flashed some impressive power, particularly against left-handed pitching which he absolutely kills. He takes a lot of pitches, knows how to get on base and has gotten better every year he's been a regular. He has below-average power against right-handed pitching but he still gets on base at a very good clip because of his excellent pitch recognition (.360 OBP against rightys in 2008). Having Werth in the 5-hole allows Victorino to stay at the top of the lineup acting as a second leadoff guy behind SS Jimmy Rollins. Either way, its not as bad a situation as it appears to be at first glance.

Another thought to consider when looking at Ibanez's 3 year contract is the imminent arrival of some potentially very good right-handed bats to balance the lineup in 2010 and 2011. Hopefully, both Jason Donald and Lou Marson will be regulars at 3B and C respectively and will provide for a very balanced lineup from 1-8. Donald has gotten a good number of reps at 3B in the Arizona Fall League and he is almost certain to get a good amount of time at that position next year as they prep him to take over for Pedro Feliz at the hot corner. C Lou Marson shot up the prospect lists with another huge step forward in 2008. Marson doesn't show any real power at the plate but he possesses excellent strike-zone recognition and he get's on-base at a very impressive pace. Between the two of them, the Phillies will have less issues from the right side of the plate than most people think.

Other than the apparent lefty-heavy lineup, the greatest argument against the signing is his advanced age of 36 (37 in June 2009) and the length of his contract (signed through Age 39). Ibanez has been a very late bloomer and he has shown remarkable consistency throughout his mid-30's. So far, he hasn't shown any signs of decline. However, when a decline does come, it usually comes fast and we shouldn't be too surprised if Ibanez is ineffective or needs to be platooned for the final year of this deal. However, considering his contract is not too onerous at just over $10 million per year, it won't be worse or even comparable to the dead money invested in guys like Adam Eaton or Geoff Jenkins this upcoming season. It won't hamstring us too greatly from signing players that need to be signed or in locking up guys like Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels in long-term deals.

So, in closing, I will go out on a long, thin limb and boldly predict that Raul Ibanez will have a better 2009 and 2010 than Pat Burrell. I will gladly revisit this comment this time next year but I highly doubt I will be wrong. Personally, I think Raul Ibanez could very well be exactly what our lineup needs and I think all those that criticized this signing will look quite silly for the next couple seasons.

Dick Allen Snubbed Again

2008-12-09T20:19:00.003-05:00

Dick Allen was never the most loved player, teammate or even human being. However, he was one of the premier power hitters of the 1960's and early 1970's. Dick Allen broke into the majors as the Phillies first African-American star (It took the Phillies 10 years to even have an African-American player on the roster, let alone a star like Allen) and faced a constant stream of racial bigotry in that role. The Phillies and Philadelphia were long known for their racial attitudes and Allen faced the brunt of it throughout the first part of his career. Allen debuted in September 1963, a mere 16 years after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier with the Brooklyn Dodgers. Ken Burns wrote the following comment concerning Robinson's first appearance in Philadelphia, where Robinson received hundreds of death threats, unrelenting abuse from the crowd and constant racial epitaphs: On April 22, 1947, during a game between the Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies players called Jackie a "nigger" from their dugout and yelled that he should "go back to the cotton fields." Branch Rickey would later recall that Phillies manager Ben Chapman"did more than anybody to unite the Dodgers. When he poured out that string of unconscionable abuse, he solidified and united thirty men." So, with that history, it was no surpise that Dick Allen faced similar abuse as the Phillies first African American star. The saddest and most telling commentary on the racial issues of the Phillies of that time was that it took over 10 years between Jackie Robinson's debut and Phillies breaking their own self-imposed color barrier.

It was in this type of divisive atmosphere that Allen cut his teeth as a Major Leaguer. Dick Allen was born in raised in rural Pennsylvania in the 40's and 50's. To those that don't know, rural Pennsylvania is/was probably more racially divided than the Deep South. Considering that atmosphere, it is no surprise that Allen always had a certain defensiveness about him. It is no surprise that he was crucified in the press for his supposed bad attitude. To understand this phenomenon, merely look at the difference in treatment of Roger Clemens versus Barry Bonds. Sure, both are guilty as sin, but it took far longer for the public to nail Rocket to the cross than Bonds. Consider that background when looking at Allen's accomplishments on the field and his personal issues off it.

In an era dominated by pitching, Allen was a beast at the plate. His career numbers are some of the highest of any player not in the Hall of Fame. In over 14 seasons, he batted .292 with a .378 OBP and .534 SLG. Consider the fact that he posted a .912 OPS in an era dominated by guys like Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, and Steve Carlton. He managed to chip in 351 homeruns and knock in 1,152 runs along with a career OPS+ of 156 (good for 19th all-time). For reference, his OPS+ is the same as Willy Mays and better than guys like Joe DiMaggio, Manny Ramirez, and Frank Robinson.

Allen was the National League Rookie of the Year in 1964, American League Most Valuable Player in 1972 and a seven-time All-Star. Despite all of his prodigious talent and accomplishments on the field, Allen was made a scapegoat off the field. Allen was blamed for the Phillies famous collapse in September 1964 despite hitting a brisk .438 in the team's final 12 games. Allen was considered a trouble maker and was often overshadowed by his supposed personality issues. Despite these accusations, his managers considered him an excellent teammate and a clubhouse leader. Chuck Tanner, his manager on the White Sox made the following telling statement about Allen, "Dick was the leader of our team, the captain, the manager on the field. He took care of the young kids, took them under his wing. And he played every game as if it was his last day on earth."

Looking back with the clarity and distance of nearly 40 years, it is far easier to admire Dick Allen's amazing accomplishments with the bat in a pitcher-dominated era and ignore his personal faults. By the numbers, Dick Allen deserves to be in the Hall of Fame and maybe one day he will make it in by the grace of God and the Veterans Committee.

Tips Cap

2008-12-07T18:48:00.003-05:00

Greg Maddux is going to make it official tomorrow. After 23 seasons, he will announce his retirement at a low-key press conference. Phillies fans can be proud that his career numbers against Philadelphia are a good deal worse than his career line. He went 29-20 (.592 W/L %) with a 3.47 ERA in over 400 IP versus Philly. Granted those are pretty good numbers but considering his career line (below), that's not half bad. Either way, its been a pleasure watching you do your thing Greg and good luck with whatever you end up doing after your playing career.

Here's his final career line:

740 GS, 355 W, 227 L, .610 WL%, 5008 IP, 4726 H, 1981 R, 1756 ER, 999 BB, 3371 SO, 3.16 ERA, 132 ERA+, 1.143 WHIP

Congrats Greg. You've had a hell of a career.

That's Lowetastic?

2008-12-04T21:16:00.004-05:00

Feel that warmth? That's the hot stove finally kicking on after a long cold month of nothingness. The Phillies are rumored to have made a respectable contract offer to Type A free agent pitcher Derek Lowe. The Phillies have long coveted Derek Lowe and his extreme sinking fastball having previously made a run at signing him after the 2004 season. Lowe has been the definition of consistency since signing with the Dodgers before the 2005 season averaging 34 starts a season in his four years there. Going back to his Boston days, Lowe has started no fewer than 32 games and pitched no less than 182 innings in his past seven seasons. Lowe would be a perfect #2 pitcher behind Ace Cole Hamels and would transform an already good Phillies staff. He would also mean the end of Jamie Moyer's tenure in Philadelphia. Moyer leaving might not be the worst thing in the world considering his age and probable cost next year in his Age 46 season. Lowe will be a youthful 36 next year and still in his prime.

As the offseason started, Lowe was rumored to be looking for a 5 year deal averaging $14-15 million a season for a total contract around the $75 million mark. The Phillies are rumored to have offered a 3 year, $42 million deal according to Foxsports Ken Rosenthal. With the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox interested in Lowe among others, it is clear that this initial offer won't get it done. While its likely that Lowe won't get his coveted 5th year from any team, he will get a 4 year deal from someone. At the end of the day, I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess he gets something like 4 years, $60-65 million with a possible club option for a 5th year. That's probably his best case scenario considering the economy and his age. Everything depends on what happens with SP CC Sabathia and SS AJ Burnett. If Sabathia ends up with the Yankees (something that looks less likely by the day unfortunately) that would likely make them less interested in pursuing Derek Lowe. If CC Sabathia goes to the Giants or Angels as rumored, then Hal & Hank Steinbrenner might personally drive the dumptruck of cash up to Lowe's house and there will be nothing the Phillies or any other team will be able to do at that point.

Things To Consider:

1. Lowe's Home/Road splits show that he is not nearly as dominant as he appears to be from playing half his games in spacious Dodger stadium. Here are his ERA splits from his time in LA.

YEAR......HOME..........ROAD
2008 -......2.30..............4.42
2007 -......3.51...............4.19
2006 -......3.18...............4.13
2005 -......3.74...............3.48

While his numbers were very good in 2005, his last three seasons show that he is not quite as dominant as he appears to be. Still, its important to consider that he is an extreme groundball pitcher and his style of play is perfectly suited to Citizens Bank Park.

Speaking of his groundball/flyball ratios, here's a rundown of those numbers for the same four seasons.

YEAR.........GB..........FB..........G/F
2008..........390.........150........2.60
2007..........398.........115.........3.46
2006..........487.........122.........3.99
2005..........447.........260.........2.92

Its troubling that 2008 was by far his worst G/F ratio of his career. Still, his 2.60 ratio is one of the best in all of baseball coming in 2nd among NL starters behind Brandon Webb.

One of the reasons Derek Lowe has been so successful since moving to the National League is his ability to keep men off base. He has been among league leaders in Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP) in each of the past four seasons:

YEAR...........WHIP
2008.............1.113 (3rd in NL)
2007.............1.269 (12th in NL)
2006.............1.266 (12th in NL)
2005.............1.252 (17th in NL)

All in all, Derek Lowe is not an Ace pitcher. He is a very good pitcher who was miscast in that role while a member of the Dodgers. In the Phillies rotation, he would be a very solid #2 guy and his presence would have a ripple effect on the rest of the rotation and bullpen. He would create better matchups for Myers and Blanton behind him and he would help keep the bullpen well rested. The odds of him signing in Philadelphia are remote at best. He wants to go back to Boston who do not appear too too interested in him. The Yankees are a good possibility as are the Mets. Both have new stadiums, vast amounts of available cash, and a more glaring need than the 2008 World Champs. Still the Hot Stove is about what could be, not what will be and this is as good a topic as any to write about.

If the Phillies are able to sign Lowe to a 4 year deal I, for one, will be very happy with the move and might even get over losing Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer (who likely wouldn't be back if they bring in Lowe).

Travesty

2008-12-02T20:11:00.003-05:00

Ruben Amaro Jr trumped conventional wisdom when he decided to not offer arbitration to free agents SP Jamie Moyer and LF Pat Burrell. Now the Phillies will not get any type of compensation whatsoever if and when they sign with other teams. Now the odds are highly against Jamie Moyer signing with another club but LF Pat Burrell will almost certainly get a long-term deal from a team that needs a right handed hitter who will chip in 30 HRs and close to a .400 OBP. The Angels are said to be interested in Pat as a 1B/DH if they are unable to resign Mark Teixiera. There are several other teams such as the Mariners and Giants who are supposedly interested in him as well. At age 32, Burrell would have almost certainly declined arbitration, hoping for a chance to make one last killing on the free agent market. Even had he accepted, the worst case scenario for the Phillies would have been to keep their long-time leftfielder for one more season while highly touted OF prospects Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor continued to improve in the minors.

By not even offering arbitration, Amaro Jr. has clearly shown that the Phillies will always be about the bottom line first and competing for a championship second. There will be no compensation picks, no fresh talent to help rejuvenate the minor league system. The Phillies, in their infinite wisdom will likely compound this moronic decision by signing another team's Type A free agent who was actually offered arbitration so they can not only not recoup comp picks for Burrell but also sacrifice their own 1st round pick. Coming off a World Series victory, flush with cash from record attendance and record ticket sales, the Phillies have no motivation to reinvest that money in their on-field product. These moves merely reinforce the reality of the situation. Now that outsider Pat Gillick is gone, the ultimate yes-man is GM. So Ruben, pretty please with sugar on top, GO PHUCK YOURSELF!!!

Why Giving Jamie Moyer A Multi-year Deal Is A Mistake

2008-11-30T18:18:00.005-05:00

It started off as a casual conversation about the rumored ongoing negotiations between the Phillies Front Office and SP Jamie Moyer. Most Phillies fans have been clamoring to resign Moyer at any cost. "He's earned it" is the general consensus among even knowledgable fans. The current rumor mill has Moyer asking for a 2 year deal with a possible option year for a 3rd season. The Phillies are said to be offering a 1 year deal with a option for a 2nd season. Moyer turned 46 two weeks ago and there aren't alot of comparable 46 year old pitchers that have had good, or even passable seasons. Off the top of my head, I was able to throw out names like Phil Niekro, Charlie Hough, Satchel Paige, Tommy John, Nolan Ryan and even Hoyt Wilhelm. After a quick jaunt over to Wikipedia, I came up with guys like Jack Quinn, Nick Altrock and Jessie Orosco. Mind you, that's a list of guys that have even pitched a season at age 46, not pitched well. That said, lets look a bit closer at how some of these guys aged from 45 to 46 and even to 47 if they actually pitched at that age (very few did).

Phil Niekro - Niekro was a medical marvel and was amazing for his longevity. This longevity can be laid at his ability to throw knuckleball after knuckleball after knuckleball to opposing hitters. He was also able to put up a respectable line in his Age 46 season.

Age 45: 31 GS, 16-8, 215 IP, 3.09 ERA, 123 ERA+, 1.368 WHIP
Age 46: 33 GS, 16-12, 220 IP, 4.09 ERA, 98 ERA+, 1.468 WHIP
Age 47: 33 GS, 11-11, 210 IP, 4.32 ERA, 96 ERA+, 1.597 WHIP

Niekro was unique in his ability to put up league average seasons at Age 46 and Age 47. He is both a knuckleballer and a Hall of Famer. Moyer is neither of those things. Even with his efforts, there is a clearly discernable decline in Niekro's numbers, especially in his WHIP rate. Niekro was quite hittable in his final two seasons and this brought up his numbers significantly.

Charlie Hough - Hough is another knuckleballer who hung around into the early nineties by pitching for the expansion club Florida Marlins. Hough's claim to fame (and trivia question answer) will be his place as the starting pitcher for the Marlins inaugural home opener. I remember watching that game on television as it was the nationally televised game that week. That being said, Hough suffered a drastic decline in his numbers from Age 45 to Age 46 and he retired after his Age 46 season.

Age 45: 34 GS, 9-14, 204 IP, 4.27 ERA, 100 ERA+, 1.336 WHIP
Age 46: 21 GS, 5-9, 113 IP, 5.15 ERA, 84 ERA+, 1.496 WHIP

As you can see, Hough was done after his Age 45 season in 1993 and it was a huge mistake for him to come back in 1994 for another year. At the time of the strike, he had an ERA in the low 5's and was ineffective at best as a starter.

Satchel Paige - There are a few issues with including Satchel on this list. For one, no one has any idea what his true age was when he entered the Majors. Another issue is that he pitched mainly out of the bullpen despite a small number of spot starts. He is simply a unique player with no comparables. However, here's the breakdown of his numbers:

Age 45: 6 GS, 47 G, 12-10, 138 IP, 3.07 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.254 WHIP
Age 46: 4 GS, 57 G, 3-9, 117 IP, 3.53 ERA, 119 ERA+, 1.304 WHIP

Paige also retired after his Age 46 season despite a short cameo at Age 58 where he pitched 3 innings for Kansas City in a start that was more publicity than anything else.

Tommy John - TJ is probably more well known to modern baseball fans for his association with the groundbreaking ligament-transplant surgery than his impressive pitching career. TJ pitched in the Majors from 1963-1989. Like most other aging pitchers, he suffered a drastic decline in his numbers from Age 45 to Age 46.

Age 45: 32 GS, 9-8, 176 IP, 4.49 ERA, 89 ERA+, 1.514 WHIP
Age 46: 10 GS, 2-7, 63 IP, 5.80 ERA, 66 ERA+, 1.712 WHIP

TJ was a non-factor in his final season. Considering his extremely high WHIP, his ERA is probably lower than it should be...this despite it being an Adam Eatonesque 5.80.

Nolan Ryan - Nolan is one of my favorite pitchers of all time. Simply put, no one could bring the heat like ol' Ryan. By bringing the heat, I mean his seeming nonchalance at beating Robin Ventura senseless (See Above Picture) when he was dumb enough to charge the mound against this ornery Texan. That said, Nolan was another pitcher who probably should have retired after his Age 45 season.

Age 45: 27 GS, 5-9, 157 IP, 3.72 ERA, 103 ERA+, 1.316 WHIP
Age 46: 13 GS, 5-5, 63 IP, 4.88 ERA, 85 ERA+, 1.417 WHIP

While Ryan's ERA+ was still a somewhat respectable 85, he struggled with injuries in his Age 46 season and was mainly ineffective because of this.

Hoyt Wilhelm - Who the hell is Hoyt Wilhelm? Yeah, that's gonna be alot of people's reactions unless they like obscure Hall of Fame knuckleball-throwing relievers. I remember him simply from his plaque in Cooperstown because of his odd name. Other than that, he was just another name to me. That said, he is on that short list of guys who pitched in the Majors at Age 46. Downside with Hoyt: He was a reliever.

Age 45: 72 G, 4-4, 93 IP, 1.73 ERA, 184 ERA+, 0.993 WHIP
Age 46: 52 G, 7-7, 78 IP, 2.19 ERA, 159 ERA+, 0.923 WHIP
Age 47: 53 G, 6-5, 82 IP, 3.40 ERA, 124 ERA+, 1.402 WHIP

Hoyt was very respectable as a reliever through his Age 47 season. He was also a reliever who relied on the knuckleball. Hoyt also pitched two more seasons retiring at the end of his Age 49 season. Though in those final two seasons, he only chipped in around 20 IP each year.

Out of those six pitchers, four retired after their Age 46 season (Hough, Paige, Ryan, John). Out of those four, only Paige had an above average season at Age 46 and he was a reliever. Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm both pitched in their Age 47 seasons. However, as I just mentioned, Wilhelm was a specialist reliever. Niekro was the only player mentioned that actually pitched primarily as a starter at Age 47. Niekro is unique in that respect. He even managed to post pretty respectable numbers at Age 47. He posted an ERA+ of 96 (100 is the equivalent of a league-average starter). Out of the four who retired at Age 46, Charlie Hough and Tommy John had ERAs well above 5 and Nolan Ryan came in with a 4.88 ERA. None of those four managed to pitch even close to 200 innings. In fact, Phil Niekro is the only guy in the history of baseball to pitch 200+ innings at Age 46 or Age 47.

What does all this mean? It means that the odds of Jamie Moyer having another above-average season at Age 46 are remote. He beat the odds at Age 45 posting very impressive numbers while he helped the Phillies win their first World Series in 28 years. However, the odds are stacked against him playing out a two-year deal with any level of respectability.

Its probably even money for Moyer to put up a league-average season next year. Niekro did it but then Niekro was a knuckleballer. Like Niekro, Moyer has a unique set of skills and that works in his favor. He doesn't rely on a blazing fastball like Nolan Ryan. He relies on pinpoint control, working the black and fooling young, aggressive hitters. He out thinks his opponent, he doesn't overpower them. If he can stay healthy and keep his stamina, he's got a shot. Staying in baseball shape at age 46 is very hard to do. If Moyer is able to do it, he will be on a very short list of players who have done so.

Player Spotlight - CF Shane Victorino

2008-11-22T13:22:00.002-05:00

One of the key reasons the Phillies are World Champions is the emergence of CF Shane Victorino. Victorino, a Rule V pickup from the LA Dodgers, has emerged as one of the top centerfielders in baseball offensively and defensively. 2008 was a coming out year for the Flyin' Hawaiian. He is not an elite hitter but he combines great defense, timely hits, and spectacular speed to be one of those complimentary stars that are essential to championship clubs. Vic was recognized for his achievements by snagging his first Rawlings Gold Glove award and more importantly by snagging his first World Series ring.

Victorino is just now entering his prime years at age 27. After three years of observation, we can confidently project what those years will look like. We should probably expect around a .290 batting average, .350 on base percentage, 15 HRs & 40 SB along with elite defense in centerfield. Those aren't Hall of Fame numbers by any means but they are very respectable from a guy that was essentially a scrapheap acquisition.

Looking at the numbers, you can see that Shane has steadily improved in his three full seasons as a starter.

2006: .287 AVG/.346 OBP/.414 SLG, 6 HR, 4 SB
2007: .281 AVG/.347 OBP/.423 SLG, 12 HR, 37 SB
2008: .293 AVG/.352 OBP/.447 SLG, 14 HR, 36 SB

You can easily see a slow but clear improvement in his overal numbers. This improvement becomes more evident when you look at secondary statistics like his BB/PA ratio, BB/SO, & Isolated Power numbers:

BB/PA

06 - 0.53
07 - 0.73
08 - 0.72

BB/SO

06 - 0.44
07 - 0.60
08 - 0.65

IsoP

06 - .128
07 - .143
08 - .154

We do have to consider that Victorino's Age 27 season could very well have been his career year but there are good indications that he will at least give the Phillies that level of performance for the next several years. The most likely scenario has the Phillies in control of an elite defender in centerfield who can get hot and carry the team for short stretches like he did in 2008. Victorino will never be a 3-hole hitter or a cleanup guy but he is essential to the success of the Phillies.

Herniated Disc/Lower Back Surgery

2008-11-21T21:26:00.002-05:00

And here's some info on Pedro Feliz and back injuries (Also from About.com):

Many patients with back pain, leg pain, or weakness of the lower extremity muscles are diagnosed with a herniated disc. When a disc herniation occurs, the cushion that sits between the spinal vertebra is pushed outside its normal position. A herniated disc would not be a problem if it weren't for the spinal nerves that are very close to the edge of these spinal discs.

What is the spinal disc?
The spinal disc is a soft cushion that sits between each vertabrae of the spine. This spinal disc becomes more rigid with age. In a young individual, the disc is soft and elastic, but like so many other structures in the body, the disc gradually looses its elasticity and is more vulnerable to injury. In fact, even in individuals as young as 30, MRIs show evidence of disc deterioration in about 30% of people.

What happens with a 'herniated disc'?
As the spinal disc becomes less elastic, it can rupture. When the disc ruptures, a portion of the spinal disc pushes outside its normal boundary--this is called a herniated disc. When a herniated disc bulges out from between the vertebrae, the spinal nerves and spinal cord can become pinched. There is normally a little extra space around the spinal cord and spinal nerves, but if enough of the herniated disc is pushed out of place, then these structures may be compressed.

What causes symptoms of a herniated disc?
When the herniated disc ruptures and pushes out, the nerves may become pinched. A herniated disc may occur suddenly in an event such as a fall or an accident, or may occur gradually with repetitive straining of the spine. Often people who experience a herniated disc already have spinal stenosis, a problem that causes narrowing of the space around the spinal cord and spinal nerves. When a herniated disc occurs, the space for the nerves is further diminished, and irritation of the nerve results.

What are the symptoms of a herniated disc?
When the spinal cord or spinal nerves become compressed, they don't work properly. This means that abnormal signals may get passed from the compressed nerves, or signals may not get passed at all. Common symptoms of a herniated disc include:

Electric Shock Pain
Pressure on the nerve can cause abnormal sensations, commonly experienced as electric shock pains. When the compression occurs in the cervical (neck) region, the shocks go down your arms, when the compression is in the lumbar (low back) region, the shocks go down your legs.
Tingling & Numbness
Patients often have abnormal sensations such as tingling, numbness, or pins and needles. These symptoms may be experienced in the same region as painful electric shock sensations.
Muscle Weakness
Because of the nerve irritation, signals from the brain may be interrupted causing muscle weakness. Nerve irritation can also be tested by examining reflexes.
Bowel or Bladder Problems
These symptoms are important because it may be a sign of cauda equina syndrome, a possible condition resulting from a herniated disc. This is a medical emergency, and your should see your doctor immediately if you have problems urinating, having bowel movements, or if you have numbness around your genitals.

All of these symptoms are due to the irritation of the nerve from the herniated disc. By interfering with the pathway by which signals are sent from your brain out to your extremities and back to the brain, all of these symptoms can be caused by a herniated disc pressing against the nerves.

How is the diagnosis of a herniated disc made?
Most often, your physician can make the diagnosis of a herniated disc by physical examination. By testing sensation, muscle strength, and reflexes, your physician can often establish the diagnosis of a herniated disc.

An MRI is commonly used to aid in making the diagnosis of a herniated disc. It is very important that patients understand that the MRI is only useful when used in conjunction with examination findings. It is normal for a MRI of the lumbar spine to have abnormalities, especially as people age. Patients in their 20s may begin to have signs of disc wear, and this type of wear would be expected on MRIs of patients in their 40s and 50s. This is the reason that your physician may not be concerned with some MRI findings noted by the radiologist.

Making the diagnosis of a herniated disc, and coming up with a treatment plan depends on the symptoms experienced by the patient, the physical examination findings, and the x-ray and MRI results. Only once this information is put together can a reasonable treatment plan be considered.

Treatment of a herniated disc depends on a number of factors including:

Symptoms experienced by the patient
Age of the patient
Activity level of the patient
Presence of worsening symptoms

Most often, treatments of a herniated disc begin conservatively, and become more aggressive if the symptoms persist. After diagnosing a herniated disc, treatment usually begins with:

Rest & Activity Modification
The first treatment is to rest and avoid activities that aggravate your symptoms. Many disc herniations will resolve is given time. In these cases, it is important to avoid activities that aggravate your symptoms.
Ice & Heat Applications
Ice and heat application can be extremely helpful in relieving the painful symptoms of a disc herniation. By helping to relax the muscles of the back, ice and heat applications can relieve muscle spasm and provide significant pain relief.
Physical Therapy
Physical therapy and lumbar stabilization exercises do not directly affect the herniated disc, but they can stabilize the lumbar spine muscles. This has an effect of decreasing the load experienced by the disc and vertebrae. Stronger, well balanced muscles help control the lumbar spine and minimize the risk or injury to the nerves and the disc.
Anti-Inflammatory Medications
Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory medications (NSAIDs) are commonly prescribed, and often help relieve the pain associated with a disc herniation. By reducing inflammation, these medications can relieve some pressure on the compressed nerves. NSAIDs should be used under your doctor's supervision.
Oral Steroid Medications
Oral steroid medications can be very helpful in episodes of an acute (sudden) disc herniation. Medications used include Prednisone and Medrol. Like NSAIDs, these powerful anti-inflammatory medications reduce inflammation around the compressed nerves, thereby relieving symptoms.
Other Medications
Other medications often used include narcotic pain medications and muscle relaxers. Narcotic pain medications are useful for severe, short-term pain management. Unfortunately, these medication can make you drowsy and can be addictive. It is important to use these for only brief periods of time. Muscle relaxers are used to treat spasm of spinal muscles often seen with disc herniations. Often the muscle spasm is worse than the pain from the disc pressing on the nerves.
Epidural Steroid Injections
Injections of cortisone can be administered directly in the area of nerve compression. Like oral anti-inflammatory medications, the idea is to relieve the compression on the nerves. When the injection is used, the medication is delivered to the area of the disc herniation, rather than being taken orally and travelling throughout your body.

Is surgery necessary in the treatment of a disc herniation?
As mentioned, treatment of a disc herniation usually begins with the steps listed above. However, surgical treatment of a herniated disc may be recommended soon after the injury if there is a significant neurological deficit to your problem. Symptoms on pain and sensory abnormalities usually do not require immediate intervention, but patients who have significant weakness, any evidence of cauda equina syndrome, or a rapidly progressing problem may require more prompt surgical treatment.

Most often surgery is recommended if more conservative measures do not relieve your symptoms. Surgery is performed to remove the herniated disc, and free up space around the compressed nerve. Depending on the size and location of the herniated disc, and associated problems (such as spinal stenosis, arthritis, etc.), the surgery can be done by several techniques. In very straightforward cases, endoscopic or microscopic excision of the herniated disc may be possible. However, this is not always recommended, and in some cases, a more significant surgery may need to be performed.

A discectomy is a surgery done to remove a herniated disc from the spinal canal. When a disc herniation occurs, a fragment of the normal spinal disc is dislodged. This fragment may press against the spinal cord or the nerves that surround the spinal cord. This pressure causes the symptoms that are characteristic of herniated discs.

The surgical treatment of a herniated disc is to remove the fragment of spinal disc that is causing the pressure on the nerve. This procedure is called a discectomy. The traditional surgery is called an open discectomy. An open discectomy is a procedure where the surgeon uses a small incision and looks at the actual herniated disc in order to remove the disc and relieve the pressure on the nerve.

How is a discectomy performed?
A discectomy is performed under general anesthesia. The procedure takes about an hour, depending on the extent of the disc herniation, the size of the patient, and other factors. A discectomy is done with the patient lying face down, and the back pointing upwards.

In order to remove the fragment of herniated disc, your surgeon will make an incision over the center of your back. The incision is usually about 3 centimeters in length. Your surgeon then carefully dissects the muscles away from the bone of your spine. Using special instruments, your surgeon removes a small amount of bone and ligament from the back of the spine. This part of the procedure is called a laminotomy.

Once this bone and ligament is removed, your surgeon can see, and protect, the spinal nerves. Once the disc herniation is found, the herniated disc fragment is removed. Depending on the appearance and the condition of the remaining disc, more disc fragments may be removed in hopes of avoiding another fragment of disc from herniating in the future. Once the disc has been cleaned out from the area around the nerves, the incision is closed and a bandage is applied.

What is the recovery from a discectomy?
Patients often awaken from surgery with complete resolution of their leg pain; however, it is not unusual for these symptoms to take several weeks to slowly dissipate. Pain around the incision is common, but usually well controlled with oral pain medications. Patients often spend one night in the hospital, but are usually then discharged the following day. A lumbar corset brace may help with some symptoms of pain, but is not necessary in all cases.

Gentle activities are encouraged after surgery, such as sitting upright and walking. Patients must avoid lifting heavy objects, and should try not to bend or twist the back excessively. Patients should avoid strenuous activity or exercise until cleared by their doctor.

What are the potential complications of a discectomy?
The most common problem of a discectomy is that there is a chance that another fragment of disc will herniate and cause similar symptoms down the road. This is a so-called recurrent disc herniation, and the risk of this occurring is about 10-15%.

Most patients find relief of much, if not all, of their symptoms from a discectomy. However, the success of the procedure is about 85-90%, meaning that 10% of patients who undergo a discectomy will still have persistent symptoms. Patients who have symptoms for long periods of time, or severe neurologic deficits (such as significant weakness) are at higher risk of incomplete recovery.

Other risks of surgery include spinal fluid leaks, bleeding, and infection. All of these can usually be treated, but may require a longer hospitalization or additional surgery.

What is endoscopic microdiscectomy?
Newer techniques may allow your surgeon to perform a procedure called an endoscopic discectomy. In an endoscopic discectomy your surgeon uses special instruments and a camera to remove the herniated disc through very small incisions.

The endoscopic microdiscectomy is a procedure that accomplishes the same goal as a traditional open discectomy, removing the herniated disc, but uses a smaller incision. Instead of actually looking at the herniated disc fragment and removing it, your surgeon uses a small camera to find the fragment and special instruments to remove it. The procedure may not require general anesthesia, and is done through a smaller incision with less tissue dissection. Your surgeon uses x-ray and the camera to "see" where the disc herniation is, and special instruments to remove the fragment.

Endoscopic microdiscectomy is appropriate in some specific situations, but not in all. Many patients are better served with a traditional open discectomy. While the idea of a faster recovery is nice, it is more important that the surgery is properly performed. Therefore, if open discectomy is more appropriate in your situation, then the endoscopic procedure should not be done.

Hip Labrum Tear/Hip Arthroscopy

2008-11-21T21:20:00.002-05:00

In case anyone was curious about Chase Utley's injury and possible treatment, here is some excellent info from About.com. Enjoy.

Hip arthroscopy is performed through small incisions using a camera to visualize the inside of a joint. Through several small incisions (about 1 centimeter each) your surgeon will insert a camera into one incision, and small instruments through the other incisions.

What is the benefit of hip arthroscopy compared to open surgery?
The nice part about hip arthroscopy is that it is much less invasive than traditional hip surgery. This means:

Early rehab
Accelerated rehab course
Outpatient procedure
Smaller incisions
Early return to sport

What conditions can be treated with hip arthroscopy?

Labral Tear
The labrum of the hip is a cuff of thick tissue that surround the hip socket. The labrum helps to support the hip joint. When a labral tear of the hip occurs, a piece of this tissue can become pinched in the joint causing pain and catching sensations.
Loose Bodies
Loose bodies are pieces of cartilage that form within the joint. They look like small marbles floating within the joint space. These loose bodies can become caught within the hip during movements.
Snapping Hip Syndrome
Snapping hip syndrome has several causes, some of which can be treated with hip arthroscopy. If something is catching within the hip joint, hip arthroscopy can be used to relieve this snapping. Also, hip arthroscopy can be used to perform a psoas tendon release in cases of internal snapping hip syndrome.
Cartilage Damage
In patients with focal cartilage damage, meaning not widespread arthritis, hip arthroscopy may be helpful. These patients may sustain an injury causing a piece of cartilage to break away from the surface of the bone. These patients may benefit from removal of that piece of cartilage.
Early Arthritis
This is a controversial topic, as patients who have arthritis pain generally will not benefit from a hip arthroscopy. The patients who tend to benefit have specific finding of impingement (pinching) within the hip joint, and may benefit from removal of the bone spurs causing this impingement. This is only possible in the very early stages of arthritis, and even then may not offer relief of symptoms.

What are the possible complications from hip arthroscopy?
The most concerning complications of hip arthroscopy have to do with several important nerves and blood vessels that surround the joint. Nerve injury is uncommon, but can be a significant problem. The most commonly affected nerves include the sciatic nerve, the lateral femoral cutaneous nerve (sensation to the thigh), and the pudendal nerve. Injury to any of the nerves can cause pain and other problems.

Other possible complications from hip arthroscopy include potential injury to normal structures, infection, and continued pain after the surgery. The rate of these complications is low, but patients need to understand the potential prior to undergoing a hip arthroscopy.

All Quiet On The Free Agent Front...

2008-11-14T18:43:00.001-05:00

Free Agency is now 19 hours old and there is absolutely nothing to report for the Phillies. The Phillies are not expected to be involved in any of the 1st Tier free agents anyway and there has been a Kremlin-like silence from newly appointed GM Ruben Amaro Jr. so far. The Phillies have supposedly alreadly made one attempt to resign LF Pat Burrell just after the season ended. They are also supposedly in serious talks with free agent SP Jamie Moyer. Moyer, coming off of an impressive season in which he had a sub 4.00 ERA and led the team in wins at age 45, is looking for at least a 2 year deal. Shooting from the hip, I'll predict that Moyer signs a 2 year, $14-16 million with a good number of incentives based off innings pitched. Worst case is Moyer completely hits the wall in 09 and we simply have a very expensive 2nd pitching coach. Odds, and any rational statistical analysis, point to Jamie having a decent season in 09 and a further drop-off at age 47 in 2010. Still, considering we got him for free, he'll be worth whatever they end up paying him. Jamie might not have an ERA in the 3.00s again but he's still a very capable starter. Burrell is more of a long-shot to resign but I still see it happening. There hasn't been any buzz whatsoever on Burrell so far. He's a liability defensively and he doesn't like to DH so that limits his options considerably. He's likely a 2nd tier free agent and that will also hurt his marketability during an off-season where the national economic downturn will affect such signings. His best fit is in Philly and both he and the Front Office will likely eventually figure that out. My guess is somewhere around 3 years, $40 million. It could very well end up lower than that in the end if the market for aging LFs really drys up. The Phillies are also rumored to be looking for some cheap bullpen help, so we should expect them to sign some low key veteran relievers to take over the long reliever roles. The key parts of the 'pen are already in place so there won't be any big waves made. The bench is more likely to receive reinforcement internally from prospects like C Lou Marson and SS Jason Donald so I wouldn't expect any major signings in that department either. The Phillies could still stun us with another major Winter trade to fill their LF hole but its a longshot at this point.

Yeah, its a boring off-season so far but we did just win the World Series so I can't complain too much.

That Gaping Hole In Left Field...What To Do?

2008-11-08T16:51:00.004-05:00

The Phillies have had the luxury of having a former #1 overall pick entrenched in Left-field for the past nine seasons. Now that #1 pick is a free agent and the Phillies Front Office, under the direction of newly appointed General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr., has its first critical decision to make for the offseason. Since becoming the Phillies starting leftfielder in early 2000, Pat Burrell (pictured right) has been a bulwark for this Phillies team. While he never lived up to the hype and early hopes of his breakout 2002 effort (.282, 37 HR, 116 RBI at age 25), he provided a solid right handed bat in the lineup dominanted by lefties like Utley, Thome, Howard, and Abreu. Burrell was always good for 25-30 HR, 90-100 RBI, a .250-260 AVG, a high OBP, and an OPS+ around 120 every season. He did have his issues: poor range in LF, a horrid 2003 season, a sometimes overly patient approach at the plate, and a poor reputation. These detractors ignored that Pat was always the first to the ballpark on gamedays, has a very accurate arm, and was one of the hardest workers on the team. He is also considered a leader in the clubhouse even if he's never been vocal to the media following the team.

Last month, the Phillies won the 2008 World Series and they did so despite Pat Burrell's 1-14 effort at the plate in five games. Pat did have a huge double in Game 5 that set up the winning run for that clinching game but other than that he was a non-factor in the World Series. Immediately after that World Series victory, the Phillies reportedly offered Pat a 2 year, $22 million deal to remain in Philadelphia for his age 32 and age 33 seasons. This offer was reportedly immediately turned down by the Burrell camp. It is unclear whether or not Pat will be brought back at this point. The Phillies have refused to grant long-term contracts to declining veterans in the past and it is unlikely that they will offer anything more than a 3 year deal. Burrell will likely be offered more years and more money from one of the many teams needing a solid right-handed power bat in their lineup. So this leaves the Phillies with a quandary: What to do with leftfield.

So here are some options for them:

1. Make a Trade - The Phillies have the prospects and players to make a trade of a good outfielder who is a right-handd bat. They have been rumored to be highly interested in LF Matt Holliday of the Colorado Rockies. The price will be very high as Holliday is coming off of a huge season but it will also be a 1 year rental for the Phillies as Holliday is a free agent after 2009 and is also a Scott Boras client. The Phillies won't be able to resign Holliday for anything approaching his true value and honestly Holliday is somewhat a creation of Coors Field anyway. Away from Coors, Holliday's numbers do not even compare to his MVP like numbers at home. The Rockies are said to be highly interested in CF Shane Victorino in a possible trade but it would be a huge mistake for the Phillies to trade their youngest position player who is also just coming into his prime. Vic has been a sparkplug since coming to the Phillies via the Rule V draft and is also one of the few affordable players on their roster. The Phillies could also offer a package of prospects but it would likely take touted prospects C Lou Marson, SP Carlos Carrasco, SS Jason Donald and someone else to make the Rockies say yes. Trading away that amount of talent from a generally thin minor-league system would be a big mistake. So a trade of that magnitude would be a mistake.

2. Sign A Top OF Free Agent - There are several very good OFs on the market but most have issues for one reason or another. LF Manny Ramirez would be great but he is looking for, and will get, far more money than the Phillies could and would ever pay a 36 year old with a bad repuation for hardwork. He's already said to have a 2 year, $50+ million deal on the table for the Dodgers. LF Adam Dunn is also available but he bats lefthanded and wouldn't be a good fit for the Phillies lineup. He would also likely be prohibitably expensive. We could also look at a guy like OF Milton Bradley. Bradley had a great 2008 season for the Rangers but he comes with a ton of baggage, both from numerous injuries and a very bad clubhouse reputation. He might also want a multi-year deal. With his injury history (never played more than 141 games), he is far too risky to sign long-term.

3. Sign a 2nd Tier Free Agent - The Phillies could also sign a platoon mate for OF Geoff Jenkins and/or UT Greg Dobbs to handle leftfield until a better option arises in a year. There are several veterans out there that hit lefties quite well and would be decent options. Jerry Hairston Jr is coming off an excellent season in Cincinatti during which he hit well over .300 in around 280 AB. A guy like OF Juan Rivera of the Angels could also be a good fit. He was an up and coming right handed bat until he shattered his leg during the 2007 season. Since then he has been relegated to the bench by free agent signings Gary Matthews Jr and Torii Hunter. Still, he might be something to consider.

4. Re-sign Pat Burrell...And Damn the Cost - The Phillies could bite the bullet and give Pat whatever he wants, be it $15 million per season or a 4 year deal. This, of course, would be a huge mistake as Pat is already a guy who gets replaced for defense in any close game. Pat is 32 and in the decline phase of his career. It would also handcuff a team that already has too much money committed in long-term deals. The Phillies need to find ways to lock up Ace Cole Hamels and slugger Ryan Howard before they blow money on Pat Burrell.

5. Do Nothing - The Phillies could, and probably will, do absolutely nothing. They could use a platoon of Matt Stairs and Geoff Jenkins in LF. They could hope that prospect Greg Golson figures out how to hit a curve ball. They could easily rest on their laurels as they are coming off their first World Series victory in 28 years. They could easily cite salary constraints due to huge raises through arbitration to most of their core players prevented them from resigning Pat or any other big name free agent.

Thoughts On The Off-Season

2008-10-30T22:12:00.007-04:00

Well, now that we got that pesky World Series thing out of the way, its time to look at the Phillies issues and concerns going into the 2009 season.

Key Free Agents:

LF Pat Burrell - Will Pat resign with Philly? Does the team want him back? I think both questions can have a "Yes" answer but it will come down to what Pat's demands are. If Pat asks for 4 years, $10-15 million per year, then I don't see him back. If he asks for half that (i.e. 2 years, $10 million per, that could happen. Burrell loves playing in Philly. He's never played anywhere else and Citizen's Bank Park benefits Pat both defensively and offensively. Like Manny in Boston, Pat is uniquely suited to playing LF in Philadelphia. Besides which, the fans have finally come around on Pat and he is one of the most respected players on the team.

SP Jamie Moyer - Is this it for the old man? I made a prediction that Jamie would retire if and when the Phillies won the World Series. One of the few things lacking on Jamie's resume was a World Series ring and he took care of that in fine fashion this week. Moyer is 45 going on 46 and he just finished up one of the best seasons ever for a pitcher that age. For a non-knuckler, it could arguably be the best season outside of a Nolan Ryan/Satchel Paige effort. Jamie has made some waves about coming back next year but he is technically not under contract anymore. If he plays next year, it will almost certainly be in Philly. He'd probably cost somewhere in the $5 million range and that is eminently reasonable in a world where Adam Eaton and Carlos Silva both make that much or more. He led the team in wins and had a very respectable ERA at age 45. There is no reason to expect he can't do the same next season. Even if he can't perform on the field, his presence on the pitching staff is invaluable. I say push to bring him back.

Arbitration:

1B Ryan Howard - Howard is, of course, arbitration eligible again. Last season he asked for $10 million and we offered around $6 million. Ryan shattered the old record with his win in arbitration and then promptly went out and hit 48 HRs and drove in over 140 RBIs. Granted his batting average was a little low and he still struck out a ton, but there is no denying that he earned his salary this year. That said, he's likely gonna want another good raise. Consider that Detroit 1B Miguel Cabrera just signed a long-term deal that averaged $18 million per season. Howard and his agent will likely use that as the basis for any contract or arbitration discussion. So figure on Howard asking for $18 million and the Phillies offering $12-14 million. I predict another Phillies loss in that situation. Howard may very well have a 2nd MVP trophy on his mantle by any potential arbitration hearing too. That will definitely color and arbiter's decision. The Phillies will pull out his defense, strikeout totals, average against lefties, etc etc. Howard will simply point at his Rookie of the Year, 2 MVPs and World Series ring. Who do you think comes out on top?

SP Cole Hamels - So yeah, Hamels is gonna make a killing in arbitration and the next General Manager would be better off simply bending over now and taking it from Cole's agent. You have the best young lefty in the game coming off a season in which he led his team to their first World Series victory in 28 years. A World Series and playoffs in which he was an MVP twice over. Hamels went from a "Good Young Pitcher" to "Clutch Ace Pitcher" in three and a half weeks of October baseball. The Phillies should (and likely will) open the vault door for him. I predict a monster deal that averages $15-20 million over 5-6 years at a minimum. Cole is truly a special player and the type of player you lock up.

SP Joe Blanton - The Phillies seemed to pay a steep price tradewise for the surprisingly young (just 27) Joe Blanton. What most Phans ignored was that Joe was indeed a young player. I, for one, supported the Blanton trade from the start and I was not disappointed by his effort as a Phillie. He's still undefeated as a Starter in the NL and apparently he's not half bad with the lumber either. Expect the Bulldog to pocket something in the $5-8 million range this winter in arbitration. He's a very solid #4 starter and he's worth every penny. At his best he can shut down the opposing team (See Game 4), at his worst he eats innings and keeps his team in it usually. He even seems to like playing in Philly so you have that as well.

CF Shane Victorino - Vic is making close to the league minimum right now and he will easily become a millionaire at the arbitration table. I predict that Vic and the Front Office will come to terms before arbitration though. Vic really blossomed as a full-time player this season despite switching positions. He led the team in batting average and continued to swipe bases. Despite the ocasional bonehead play, Vic played hard for the entire season and provided the team with an important sparkplug. His 13 RBIs in the playoffs were a team record. I see the Phillies trying to lock Vic up through his arbitration years. He's a very good young player who compliments this lineup perfectly.

RF Jayson Werth - Jayson proved that he is more than a platoon player this season. He was healthy for the first time in his career and his power and on-base numbers soared as a result. He also showed great speed in the outfield and on the bases as well as a plus arm. Jayson will also get a good raise this winter.

RP Ryan Madson & Chad Durbin - Both provided key anchors to the best bullpen in baseball and both will be brought back. Madson transformed himself from a decent middle reliever to an elite setup man courtesy of a new workout regimen due to Jamie Moyer's influence. Durbin carried the bullpen in his middle relief role for the first 4.5 months. Both will be back and both will be more expensive.

UT Greg Dobbs, UT Eric Bruntlett, & RP Clay Condrey - Of the three I see Dobbs back in his 3B platoon/pitch-hit extraordinaire role but I wonder about Bruntlett and Condrey. Both are eminently replacable. SS Jason Donald will be pushing Bruntlett for a roster spot come spring and Condrey will have to fight for the final bullpen spot. Dobbs will get a decent but not huge raise but the other two will not get much of anything.

Spare Parts:

SP Adam Eaton - We're lucky in the fact that Adam will make around $8 million no matter what happens next year. He'll also get a World Series ring somehow. Either way, he likely won't be back next year. They may give him a Spring Training invite but the smart move would be to eat it on his contract and simply outright release him. Eaton was a mistake signing. The Front Office knows it, the team knows it, we the fans know it and even Adam knows it. His performance, outside of a brief stretch of respectability in June, was atrocious.

SP Kyle Kendrick - Kyle's numbers screamed correction for 2008 and we were not let down. He declined in all aspects of the game and showed himself to be a very borderline major leaguer. He only has one decent pitch in his slider and the rest is a work in progress. If he ever learns to throw a changeup, he might have another shot at the Majors. Till then, he's AAA fodder. Considering some of the young pitching prospects currently in the system, Kendrick could soon find himself a career IronPig.

Likely Gone in 09:

RP Rudy Seanez, RP Clay Condrey, RP Les Walrond, RP Scott Eyre*, OF So Taguchi, OF Matt Stairs, C Chris Coste - Seanez, Condrey, and Walrond are all interchangeable parts. I see Walrond staying around as a AAA starter as he is more of a AAAA player at best. Eyre might cost too much to come back (see below). Taguchi didn't really contribute much of anything the entire year so there is no reason whatsoever to expect him back. He's also winding down as an MLBer. The same can be said for Stairs though he will be able to go out on his own terms. Stairs will play in 09 if he wants to. I predict a retirement (and free drinks at any Philly bar for the rest of his life) for Matt Stairs. He solidified himself in Phillies Lore with under two months of effort. Coste will likely get pushed out due to his increasing age and hotshot young catching prospect Lou Marson.

Newcomers for 09:

SP J.A. Happ, C Lou Marson, SS/UT Jason Donald, SP Carlos Carrasco.

My prediction is that guys like Eyre and Stairs MIGHT be back but I wouldn't count on it. Stairs could very well retire as he's already 40 and now is a World Series winner. Eyre provided a great effort down the stretch as the perfect LOOGY and compliment to premier lefty reliever J.C. Romero. To get him back we might have to pay more than we're willing to spend. Donald is currently working at several different IF positions in the Arizona Fall League and he has the range to play 2B, 3B, and SS in the majors. I predict he's in and Bruntlett is out. Carrasco will continue to complete his skills in AAA and will be the first guy called up in case of injury. Happ isn't so much of a newcomer as 2009 will technically be his 3rd season on the Phillies. However, he's still a rookie and he has proven that he has the stuff to be a decent starter for the Phillies. I see him winning the #5 spot out of Spring Training.

Finally!

2008-10-29T23:15:00.005-04:00

It only took 28 years. Finally, thank God, we won it all. Think of it this way, no matter what happens for the next five years, WE WON A WORLD SERIES. A Mets fan tries to bash the Phillies...Yeah, that's great, WE WON A WORLD SERIES. The bottom line is that everything after this is gravy for at least five years, hell maybe ten years considering its Philly. The Phillies won the World Series and they did it as a team. Role players like Carlos Ruiz and Jayson Werth carried them to the championship. Guys like Eric Bruntlett, Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins, and Pedro Feliz had huge hits and even the big names came through when it mattered. Perhaps the most fitting moment of the 5 game series occurred when the maligned LF Pat Burrell, the longest tenured player on the roster came up to the plate in a key at bat with a huge insurmontable 0-13 line hanging over his head to that point. Pat the Bat, Manchine, PtB, whatever you want to call him came through and came through huge. He absolutely hammered a ball 400 feet to straight center. Off the bat it was a homerun on any other night. Unfortunately for Pat the wind was blowing straight in from Center. That didn't matter so much as Pat got every bit of that ball and got just enough to bank it off the wall for a standup double. Like clockwork, Burrell was lifted for a pinch runner and his Phillies career had its final moment. The pinchrunner ended up scoring the winning run for the clinching game of the World Series as Pat stood with tears in his eyes in the dugout. Pat did his job and helped his team, his only professional team, go ahead for the last time. After season after long season of losing, this victory had to be sweetest of all for Pat. And sweetest of all: WE WON THE WORLD SERIES!!!

Redemption!

2008-10-27T19:08:00.003-04:00

After a long and somewhat contentious year for 1B Ryan Howard, the Phillies slugging 1B finally, truly, and completely won over the passionate, raucious blue-collar fanbase of Philadelphia. Howard was a much maligned player for most of this season as he started off the first two months of the season on one of the deepest slumps in recent memory for any player of his stature. It took Howard until July 4th to permanently drag his average over the .220 mark. Howard looked completely lost for long stretches of the season. The rabid fanbase quickly turned on the big slugger. Many said he should be platooned as he simply could not hit left-handed pitching. Many said he should be traded for anything they could get. Some of the more rabid fans even used the blogs to lambast Howard on a daily basis. This blogger specifically focused all of his frustration and anger and an underperforming ballclub at what Harry Kalas calls "The Gentle Giant". I went so far as to track his daily strikeout totals as they spiraled towards shattering his own MLB single-season record. Quietly though, things began to change. Ryan kept plugging away and the repeated slumps got less and less frequent as the season wore on. As other players wore down, Howard came on stronger and stronger, posting MVP-type numbers over the 2nd half the season. Howard had a historic September during which he carried the team for the entire month, refusing to lose the division. Howard hit a smoking .352 with 11 HR/32 RBI for the month. Then came October and with it the old Ryan Howard. Many of us quickly jumped on the familiar and easy target. He can't field. He lacks concentration in the field. He's too easily neutralized by a good lefty. We spouted all these easy attacks, ripping him in all aspects of the game. He had an atrocious 2-11 with 5 K in the NLDS

and the attacks were vicious. Then came the NLCS and with it, Ryan began to woke up. He batted .300 but slugged an abysmal .350 due to breaking ball after breaking ball down in the zone. The book on Howard is well known and the Dodgers followed it religously. The World Series started off the same way in Games 1 and 2 as Ryan just looked lost at the plate. Then came Game 3 in Philadelphia. Howard smashed his first HR of the postseason and with it ended weeks of frustration. Game 4 brought us the Ryan Howard we all cheered on in September. Howard crushed 2 HR and picked up 5 RBI including 3 on a crucial 4th inning shot that broke the game open. Howard was the hero of game 4 and he finally won over the toughest fans in baseball. Tonight is a possible clinching Game 5 and we'll cheer Ryan on as he leads the Phillies towards a long awaited championship.

Jamie Moyer: Playing The Game The Right Way

2008-10-26T18:29:00.005-04:00

Most 45-year-old men would be at home watching last night's game on tv with their family or even in the stands cheering the team on. Most Major Leaguers are long retired by the time they reach 45. They are broadcasters, scouts, coaches, or managers by the time they reach that esteemed age. Jamie Moyer is different. At 45, he is at the top of his game pitching a gem to help win Game 3 of the 2008 World Series. On guts, guile and pure determination, Moyer shut down a young Rays lineup with the same stuff he's had for his entire career. His fastball never topped 82 mph but that didn't matter. Moyer took the team on his back and propelled them to a crucial Game 3 victory on a brisk rain-soaked field in South Philly. Moyer proves that its more about hard work and determination than pure ability. He has never thrown over 90 in his career or been the guy that will repeatedly strikeout the side with fireball after fireball. Moyer made perhaps the best defensive play of his career in the top of the 7th inning last night on a running bunt by LF Carl Crawford. Crawford, well known as one of the fastest players in the league, bunted towards 1B and took off running. Moyer, displaying the speed and agility that some 21-year-olds don't have, bounded off the mound, gloved the ball and quickly shoveled it too a waiting Ryan Howard who barehanded it just before Crawford's foot hit the base. This was a crucial play that would kill a potential rally right after the Phillies had taken a commanding 4-1 lead on the strength of back-to-back homeruns by sluggers Chase Utley and the previously mentioned Howard. Moyer showed that he was there to win and was gonna leave everything on the field in what may be his final game as a professional. But it was not to be. The 1B ump, who admitted after the fact that he relied on the sound of the ball hitting the glove instead of his own eyes, called Crawford safe in an absolute travesty of a call for the game's biggest stage. The Rays went on to chase Moyer from the game scoring two runs that should never have been on base in the first place. Instead of going into the 8th with a commanding 4-1 lead to hand off to the dominating Madson/Lidge 1-2 punch, they had a shaky 4-3 lead with the very dangerous B.J. Upton leading things off. The Phillies won in the end on the most spectacular infield hit in the history of Citizen's Bank Park by C Carlos Ruiz but that doesn't matter. The officiating in this World Series had been questionable at times and downright scary on occasion. Jamie Moyer has been robbed of his place in history by losing both his Win and place on every highlight reel for the next 20 years. The team won and that is all that is important. That is what Jamie would tell us if he were asked and it wouldn't be just another line from a spoiled athlete. It would be the truth. A truth founded deep down in the heart of a man who plays the game the right way, the way the game deserves to be played. Moyer goes out there every 5th day, takes the ball for his team, and honors the game he plays. He honors it with his work ethic. He honors it with the reverence for the respect he shows for the history of the game. He understands that baseball is not just a game. Baseball is a part of our cultural history and our lives. He realizes that 45,000 fans come to the stadium to watch something that is far more important than a mere game to them. It is a part of their life, something they will tell their kids and grandkids. Moyer again proved that respect with his spectacular play last night and his constant mentoring of the players around him. There's a good chance that Jamie Moyer will never be inducted into the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown but that doesn't matter. He's the first to tell you that the accolades aren't important. It's about winning and winning the right way.

Phillies Prove Existence of Merciful God

2008-10-26T02:04:00.005-04:00

With the entire world against them, the Phillies dominated a young Tampa Bay Rays team for most of the night yet went into the bottom of the 9th with a 4-4 tie game. The Phillies had been up 4-1 in the 7th when an absolutely brutal call on a play at first base changed the entire complexion of the game. SP Jamie Moyer made perhaps the most impressive hustle play in the history of the franchise only to see a botched call by 1B umpire Alex Halion steal his spot in history. Watching this game was an exhausting experience to say the least. Our big names continued to struggle for much of the game but heroes come from unexpected places. A 45 year old starter dominated a young opponent. A defensive replacement in the much-maligned UT Eric Bruntlett came through in a crucial situation in the bottom of the 9th on the bases. C Carlos "Chooch" Ruiz continued his bid for an MVP Trophy after batting a utilitarian .219 during the regular season. The Phillies are beginning to have the feeling of a team of destiny this October as they continue to find ways to win despite somewhat lackluster performances by their big stars. Tomorrow has SP Joe Blanton facing off against the young SP Andy Sonnanstine for the Rays. The road to winning the World Series is now looking clearer for the Phillies. Blanton will be on the mound and Ace Cole Hamels will pitch a possible clinching Game 5 on Monday.

One Down...Three To Go

2008-10-23T17:45:00.004-04:00

SP Cole Hamels dominated on the national stage and he is now finally being talked about as an Ace Starter by the national media. This attention and respect is long overdue for Hamels. Hamels is the best left-handed pitcher to wear a Phillies uniform since Carlton and easily the best Phillies pitcher since Schilling. He's eccentric, moody, arrogant and picky. He's also a dominant player not even in his prime yet. At 24 he's still getting better each year. This season he was already a Top 5 pitcher in the National League. If he stays healthy, always a concern with Cole, then he will be a Cy Young contender every season for years to come. So far he's 4-0 with a sizzling 1.55 ERA in the Postseason joining the ranks of other elite players who raise their game to a different level in October. Cole won us Game 1 and there are 3 more to go for the first Championship in 28 years. Game 2 is tonight at 8:35 PM.

Phillies In World Series

2008-10-22T19:35:00.002-04:00

So the Phillies are in the World Series for the first time since I was twelve years old and it still doesn't feel real. I haven't posted on this site in a few months as I've been so busy with so many other things in the real world including a new job, moving and other annoyances. The Phillies won the Pennant. Let's repeat that: The Phillies Won The Pennant! That has a nice ring to it, doesn't it? So no matter what happens in the next week, the Phillies will be putting a banner up next season. The only question is whether it will be the franchise's 2nd World Series banner or 6th National League Pennant. The Phillies will be facing the upstart Tampa Bay Rays, a team not expected to really compete this season but one that turned out to dominant the toughest division in baseball for most of the year. I personally picked the Rays as my team that would compete this year but be unstoppable next sesaon as all their young talent got a little older. So I was off a year, I suppose. Of course, no one else in the world, including the Rays themselves, thought so either. The Phillies would probably have matched up better with the Red Sox but that's life. The Rays have great young pitching, underrated young players, and a decent bullpen. All in all it should be a hell of a series. The Phillies will come down to three players on offense: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins. They are the heart and soul of this team and have been so for the past four seasons. If those three show up and play like they can play, the Phillies can win. If they go 3 for 27, then we're in trouble. We've got the pitching, we've got the bullpen and we've got great role players like Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino. If the heart of this lineup hits like it can hit, then we can win. It'll all be over in the next 10 days.

Go Phillies!

Campaign Cheer

2008-08-19T11:16:00.001-04:00

In response to JRoll's painful but still true comments...Support Campaign Cheer!!!

http://pabaseball.blogspot.com/2008/08/game-day-campaign-cheer-in-full-effect.html

Moment of Truth

2008-07-26T23:34:00.002-04:00

This is the week that will make or break this season for the Phillies. This is also the week that will cement Pat Gillick's legacy as General Manager of the team. The non-waiver trade deadline is fast approaching this Thursday and with it any real chance to improve the team's chances via an infusion of talent. The Phillies of 6 weeks ago appeared to be a World Series favorite and many argued that they could very well be at the level of an elite team. They had cruised into early June easily atop the NL East and they were well over .500 at the time. Since that moment, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong and the wheels have completely off. They have been in a solid tailspin since then and have watched the division rival Mets pull together as a team and overtake them in the standings. As of this moment they are 1.5 games back and despite a wild win this afternoon they present the image of a rapidly fading team with little chance of making the playoffs. All this bears the question of 'What the heck has happened?"

For starters the team has suddenly forgotten how to hit and how to hit consistently. Consistent offense has always been a problem with this Phillies team and they have always relied heavily on the long ball to produce offense. This tendency has only increased this season. Despite a recent surge in hitting and great production with RISP, 1B Ryan Howard is still only batting .235 for the season. SS Jimmy Rollins, the reigning MVP, has suddenly reverted to his 2005 self and is no longer an offensive threat yet is still batting leadoff on a nightly basis. He has some of the worst numbers among leadoff men in all of the majors and his power has all but disappeared this year. 2B Chase Utley has been slowly dropping off since his blazing hot start and the rest of the offense other than LF Pat Burrell (who is in the midst of a career year) has been missing-in-action all season. Far too many balls are popped up on the first pitch or hit into costly double-plays to kill rallies at the worst moments.

Secondly, the team appears to be adrift in the leadership department since the offseason departure of CF Aaron Rowand who decided he'd rather be paid very well to lose than have a real shot at the playoffs. Considering that the Phillies Front Office never made any real effort to bring him back, I cannot truly blame him for his decision and San Francisco is a beautiful city to live in. Still, the Phillies sorely miss both his right-handed bat and his take charge leadership style on and off the field. Supposed leader Jimmy Rollins appears to be anything but. In all actuality he shows every indication of being a clubhouse cancer with his laidback style in all aspects of the game. He is not known to show up early or stay late nor has he shown consistent hustle at times this season. He has been benched twice in the past month for violating team rules and not one position player stepped up and called him on it. In fact, the only man with any balls on the team is apparently 45 year old veteran pitcher Jamie Moyer who did actually make a public statement that for all intents and purposes slammed the reigning MVP for his behavior. Neither veteran leader Pat Burrell, nor face of the team Chase Utley, nor slugging 1B Ryan Howard said anything or made any indication that they agreed with the benching.

Pitching, pitching, pitching is the mantra of a champion ball club and the Phillies have far too little of it to really succeed. Instead of trading for a legitimate #2 starter, the Phillies vastly overpaid for the highly overrated Joe Blanton, holder of a high 4 ERA in the very pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum. Joe Blanton, or Adam Eaton West as he should be known is not the answer and has never been the answer. Anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of how to read a home/road split should have understood that but unfortunately GM Pat Gillick must have lost his reading glasses that day and now Joe Blanton is "The Answer" for the Phillies Front Office. While other contenders were trading for Ace pitchers such as Rich Harden or CC Sabathia the Phillies get another mediocre #4 starter to add to their collection of soft throwing bottom of the rotation starters.

This upcoming week will tell us alot about this club and the 2008 season. Will the Phillies put together a winning streak and hang with the division leading Mets? Will GM Pat Gillick make another move to help the club? Will Joe Blanton pitch well in his 2 starts? Will the offense finally remember how to hit? Etc etc etc. This week will tell us if this team has any heart or if they care more about their animal charities and padding their stats for Arbitration and Free Agency as opposed to playing winning baseball.

This team could very easily finish with around 80 wins in 3rd place or they could very easily finish with 90+ wins and take the NL East. They have the talent for the later and have shown the heart for the former so far. Only time will tell.

Boo?...F*ck You!

2008-07-15T12:36:00.003-04:00

Simply put, Chase Utley is the best Phillie to ever live. Give um Hell Chase!!!

Player of the Week-2B Chase Utley: I know its early but with his admirable performance last night at the 2008 All-Star Game HR Derby, Chase Utley has solidified his place in the pantheon of Philadelphia sports.

Happ Comes Through

2008-07-10T09:55:00.003-04:00

Rookie SP J.A Happ has made two starts for the Philadelphia Phillies and thus far has not gotten a decision in either game despite pitching well both times. He has, however, done his job keeping the Phillies offense in the game and giving them a chance to win. That is something that his predecessor Brett Myers did not do. So far, Happ has posted a 3.27 ERA in 11 innings spanning 2 starts. He has struck out 8 and walked 8 as he has struggled at times with his control. Overall, he has given them a chance to win and that is all he needs to do. Hopefully he continues to build on these early efforts and sticks with the team.

Lidge Signed Long Term

2008-07-09T19:38:00.003-04:00

You have to give the Phillies credit for locking up closer Brad Lidge for a 3 year $37 million deal. Considering that Lidge is currently 31 this deal appears to be the perfect length to get the most out of a guy who has been simply lights out since coming over from the Houston Astros. The key to this deal was getting done during the season so there were no other bidders in the running. His price would have almost certainly gone way up had they waited until the end of the season. So this deal was the right deal for the time and the right price. Good job Gillick. Now all you have to do is cut Taguchi and trade for a legit starter and I'll stop complaining.

Weekly Awards

2008-07-04T21:53:00.002-04:00

This week its short and sweet:

Player of the Week - 2B Chase Utley: After suffering through a brutal slump for most of June, Chase Utley righted himself this week with a 10 for 27 (.370) performance. He led the team with 6 runs scored and 20 total bases and played the role of table setter for Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard who both had solid weeks as well. Utley's line: .370 avg, 4 2B, 2 HR, 6 R, 4 RBI, 1 SB, .414 OBP, 1.155 OPS.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Cole Hamels: Cole has simply been a workhorse this season and this past week was no exception. Hamels went 2-0 on the week winning both his starts while posting a 2.87 ERA. Simply put, he dominated for the week and fully demonstrated why he is the Ace of the Phillies staff. His line: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 11 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 15 K, 0.96 WHIP.

Goat of the Week - SP Brett Myers: Brett had such a good week that he is now an IronPig. After another of his pathetic little league esque performances, Brett (and the Phillies fateful) was put out of his misery with a well deserved demotion to the minors to "work on his mechanics". In his one start Brett lasted all of 2 innings allowing 5 H, 5 ER, 1 HR while walking 4 and recording 2 K. That was good for a 22.50 ERA on the week. Good luck in Allentown and good riddance.

Define "Elite Closer"

2008-06-28T23:25:00.004-04:00

It's something the Phillies haven't had in a long time, if ever. A guy who comes in with the game on the line and shuts the opposition down no matter who's batting be it their defensive catcher or all-star slugger. He thrives on the pressure and elevates his game in tight situations. In all of baseball there are only a handful of truly elite closers. Brad Lidge is one of them. Lidge is 19 for 19 this season in Save opportunities and his outstanding performance has made GM Pat Gillick look like a genius for trading a long-shot prospect, journeyman reliever, and 5th outfielder to Houston for him. Gillick was able to buy low with Lidge as he was coming off a somewhat mediocre season and desperately needing a change of scenery to regain his confidence. Lidge had not been the same since blowing game 6 of the 2006 NLCS against Albert Pujols and the Houston faithful had never let him forget it. Coming into this seasons, a myriad of questions surrounded Lidge. Would he be able to handle the pressures of playing in Philadelphia? Would he regain his confidence? How good would he be? Was he even the best option with SP Brett Myers coming off an impressive half-season as closer? So far, the answer to all these questions has been a resounding "YES." Lidge has allowed just 3 ER in 33 IP while saving 19 games in 19 opportunities. He's also struck out 43 batters in just 33 innings (11.73 K/9) while walking just 15. His fastball has been fantastic and his slider has been downright filthy. Opposing hitters are batting a brisk .167 against him so far. All in all, he has been everything the Phillies hoped for and much much more. Simply put, he is an Elite Closer.

Weekly Awards

2008-06-27T14:04:00.003-04:00

When looking back at the past week and the Phillies wonderful 1-5 effort, I ask myself, "Why bother with awards this week?". The team collectively sucked and other than Kyle Kendrick's wonderful performance Wednesday night against that Oakland Athletics, they didn't even bother to show up. That said, here are the weekly "awards" for the past week:

Player of the Week - CF Shane Victorino: Vic had an alright week at the plate going 6 for 20 (.300), 2 RBI, 2 R, 6 SB along with 3 BB. He posted a respectable .391 OBP for the week. Considering the team as a whole batted .174, Vic stood out as the one regular who had a decent week.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Kyle Kendrick: Kendrick pitched the best game of his young career, pitching 8 very strong innings against the A's in which he allowed just 4 hits and 0 runs scored. He was the only pitcher to record a win for the team and this strong outing lowered his ERA to a respectable 4.59 on the season.

Goat of the Week - Entire Offense Not Named Victorino: If you take Vic's numbers out of the equation, the Phillies .174 batting average for the week drops even further to a truly pathetic .159. Leading this slop of an offense were 1B Ryan Howard (.125, 7 K), SS Jimmy Rollins (.125, 5 K), RF Geoff Jenkins (.000 in 14 AB, 6 K) and LF Pat Burrell (.190, 8 K).

Injury Notes: RP Tom Gordon has been day-to-day with a sore shoulder and has not looked good in his last few outings. There is a good possibility that he will go on the DL in the next few days if his shoulder does not improve. He allowed 1 run on 2 hits in his only appearance this week.

Stat of the Week: As a team, the Phillies struck out 52 times in 190 ABs in their past 6 games. That's 27.4% of the time if you're scoring at home.

Why So Taguchi Should Be Released

2008-06-27T12:10:00.003-04:00

When the Phillies signed OF So Taguchi this offseason it seemed like an excellent move by GM Pat Gillick to solidify the bench and replace OF Michael Bourn who had just been traded to the Houston Astros. Despite being 38 years old, Taguchi had a reputation as an excellent pinch-hitter and defensive outfielder. He had just come off a very good season as a part-time player for the St. Louis Cardinals and he appeared to be a good fit for the 5th OF role off the bench. However, over the first three months of the season, Taguchi has been, by far, the worst position player on the team and he looks to be done as a professional ballplayer. The gentlemen at Baseball Prospectus predicted this and we all should have too. They wrote, "Taguchi has lost enough steps in the outfield to make him a marginal bench player. He can no longer play a credible center field, and you'd like your corner men to have either more pop or more speed than he does. Released in December, Taguchi was signed by the Phillies, who will use him as a defensive replacement for Pat Burrell and an off-day center fielder for Shane Victorino. They could have done better." The Cardinals knew it, Baseball Prospectus predicted it, and now the Phillies are getting to witness it. So Taguchi, who had a fine career as a Japanese import, is finished. To emphasize, here are his numbers for the past 2 seasons:

2007: 89 of 307 (.290 avg), 3 HR, 30 RBI, 7 of 11 in SB, .350 OBP, .718 OPS
2008: 13 of 63 (.206 avg),--0 HR, 4 RBI,--1 of 1 in SB, .286 OBP,...556 OPS

Even worse are his woes in the field even when compared to the man he is replacing most of the time, LF Pat Burrell.

Pat Burrell (LF) - 592 Inn, 6 Assists, 0 Errors (in 112 chances), 1.000 FPCT, 1.70 RF, .891 ZR
So Taguchi (LF) - 69 Inn, 0 Assists, 2 Errors (in 18 chances), .889 FPCT, 2.09 RF, .800 ZR

Other than a slight advantage in Range Factor, Burrell has actually be far superior to his supposed defensive replacement. Even more disturbing, while Taguchi has only been charged with 2 errors, he has made several more bad reads that have led to runs scoring. When you make Pat Burrell look like a great defensive outfielder, something is very seriously wrong with your game.

So, while its sad to watch the demise of a baseball player, Taguchi is hurting this team with his play. Something needs to be done and it needs to be done soon. Taguchi should be released and the Front Office should start looking at its options.

1. Bring up SS Jason Donald from AA Reading - While Donald is not a one for one replacement for Taguchi as they don't play the same position, he is a versatile IF and he has a good bat and okay speed. Both UT Eric Bruntlett and UT Greg Dobbs can play the corner OF positions credibly so this move would make sense. Donald give Manuel another option off the bench who can spot Feliz, Rollins, or Utley when they need a day off. Donald is a 24 year old Eastern League All-Star who is batting .298 with 9 HR/36 RBI in 66 games played. He has posted a .390 OBP and is 8 for 10 in stolen bases so far this season. He also hits leftys very well batting .322 against them with a .437 OBP/.911 OPS.

2. Sign/Trade for a Veteran Outfielder - There are several guys that could be had rather cheaply or they could even kick the tires on a guy like OF Kenny Lofton. Lofton was a good player even last year at age 40 posting a .296/.367/.781 AVG/OBP/OPS with 38 XBH, 38 RBI, 23 SB and 87 R in 494 AB. Lofton has reportedly turned down offers from both TB and CWS to play because of the money offered and left the Phillies on a somewhat bad note after his one year stay with the organization but he could still help a ballclub with is abilities.

Either option would be better than the current status quo and something needs to be done.

Minor League Spotlight - SP Carlos Carrasco

2008-06-23T14:39:00.003-04:00

The cupboard is pretty bare for the Philadelphia Phillies farm system but there are still a couple of decent prospects that bear following. AA Reading SP Carlos Carrasco is one of them. Carrasco has been rated as the Phillies top prospect for the past two seasons and with good reason. The young Venezuelan possesses 4 pitches and he is starting to turn the corner this season for the Reading Phillies. Carrasco throws a plus fastball and a plus changeup as well as a slider and curveball. Both the slider and curve are more of show-me pitches at the moment and they sometimes merge into a slurve but his fastball has good velocity (93-95 mph). His change is his out-pitch and it works best when its thrown hard in the low to mid 80's. When his control is on, he is a very tough pitcher to beat. So far this season, he has really gotten a handle on his control. He has shown drastic improvement from last season and he is looking more and more like the #2/#3 pitcher he was projected to be when he signed with the organization at age 18.

So far this year he is off to a very good start in Reading posting an impressive 3.64 ERA in his first 14 starts. His record is a more modest 5-6 but that is more an illustration of poor run support than anything else. Impressively he has struck out 89 batters in 94 IP while walking just 35. This is a vast improvement over his 2007 numbers as seen below:

2007 (AA): 70.1 IP, 49 K (6.27 K/9), 46 BB (5.89 BB/9), 1.07 K/BB
2008 (AA): 94.0 IP, 89 K (8.52 K/9), 35 BB (3.35 BB/9), 2.54 K/BB

You can clearly see huge upswing in his numbers from last year to this season. Carrasco is demonstrating that he is very close to being ready for The Show. Considering the huge holes in the Phillies rotation, that is not a bad thing.

Carrasco just turned 21 this March and he clearly has lots of room to grow. However, considering the poor performances by some of the Phillies rotation, he may have to learn on the job as Kyle Kendrick did last season. I will not be surprised to see him in a Phillies uniform sometime in the second half of the season and almost definitely no later than Spring Training 2009. For now he will continue to polish his game in AA and wait for the Phillies to call.

It's Now or Never, Brett!

2008-06-21T18:14:00.004-04:00

Well, its been one heck of a disappointing season for Brett Myers so far and he goes into tonight's start with a ridiculously pathetic 3-8 record and 5.58 ERA. Luckily for him, the Phillies have no legitimate MLB ready pitchers in their minor-league system or he likely would have already been pulled from the rotation in favor of a fresh arm. On top of his weak performances on the field, he has made a name for himself with his inability to control his emotions on and off the field. He throws temper tantrums when calls don't go his way and destroys both the dugout and clubhouse in apparent violent rages. This 5-year-old girl mentality is not helping his image and suggests that he cannot handle the pressure of pitching every 5th day for a big league club.

Going into the season, Myers was pronounced the #1 starter in the rotation and considered to be the missing piece that would help the Phillies over the hump this year. Instead of acquiring another front-line starter, GM Pat Gillick traded CF Michael Bourn, RP Geoff Geary, and prospect 3B Mike Costanzo for premier closer Brad Lidge. This trade supposedly killed two birds with one stone in acquiring a top of the line Closer and allowed Brett to return to the starting rotation where he had previously been successful. At the time, it appeared to be a brilliant cost-effective move that would allow the Phillies to compete with the best teams in the National League while freeing up money that could be used to pick up more talent at the trade deadline if necessary. Now it appears that SP Brett Myers may need a trade this summer just to give him a change of scenery as he as completely flopped in his return to the rotation.

Several bloggers and Phillies writers have tossed the gauntlet down to Brett and I will now add my voice to the choir. It's now or never Brett. Get out there tonight, shutdown a very good Angels lineup, and give your team a chance to win. Don't throw a fit when a call doesn't go your way. Don't cry to the ump, don't blame yourself and say how angry you are at your effort. Just get your ass out there and pitch. No excuses!

A Salute To Curt Schilling

2008-06-20T13:51:00.002-04:00

Curt Schilling announced earlier today that he will undergo season (and likely career) ending surgery on his injured right shoulder. He has been attempting to rehab the shoulder since the early spring when it was determined he suffered a partially torn labrum. While the rehab efforts have strengthened the shoulder substantially, the underlying injury is still there and Curt has been unable to throw off a mound without a substantial level of pain. So likely, Curt's career is over and what a tremendous career it has been. Curt has made a name for himself over the past 15 years as the preeminent big game pitcher of his generation. He led two separate teams to World Series victories and has 3 World Series rings in 4 total appearances. During the regular season he has been no less impressive, winning well over 200 games while playing for the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox. He has always been a winner and a dominating right-handed power pitcher. He is also well known for his charitable contributions and strong Christian family values. He put as much effort towards those aspects of his life as he did towards pitching. In support of his Hall of Fame candidacy, I will breakdown his impressive resume even further:

Weekly Awards

2008-06-20T13:17:00.004-04:00

After a one week hiatus (hey if Chase Utley can take a week off so can I), its time for the Weekly Awards again. It's been a rough week as the Phillies have managed to lose 3 straight series against good competition and the offense has played a disappearing act at times while also putting up 20 runs on other days. SP Brett Myers continues to confound even the most optimistic of his supporters with his pathetic performance so far this year. He was publicly blasted in the Philadelphia Inquirer today by columnist Jim Salisbury. Salisbury is merely echoing the thoughts that several other Phillies fans (including this blogger) have been expressing for weeks now as Brett continues to struggle.

Benson Update: SP Kris Benson was knocked out early in his latest rehab start in Clearwater and he looks to be a very long way from the Majors right now. Benson lasted just 2 innings, allowing 5 ERs on 3 hits (all HRs). He did manage to strike 3 batters as the sole silver lining for the outing.

Injury Update: OF Greg Golson was placed on the 15 day DL with a sore wrist earlier in the week. Golson had been slumping for 10 games prior to the DL trip in which he hit well below the Mendoza Line posting a .132 avg with just 5 hits in 38 ABs. Hopefully the slump was injury related and not a sign of him reverting to his previous seasons' form.

And now time for the Weekly Awards:

Player of the Week - 1B Ryan Howard: Howard has redefined the phrase "feast or famine" with last week's performance. He led the team in almost every offensive category posting a very impressive line of: 10 of 26 (.385), 7 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 25 TB, 14 RBI, .448 OBP, .962 SLG, 1.410 OPS. However he did strike out 11 times in 6 games including a grisly 4 K performance Wednesday against the Red Sox. He is still on pace to shatter his own single season SO record with 223 projected Ks this year.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Cole Hamels: Hamels made pitching look easy with his dominating performance against the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox. He pitched 7 strong inning allowing just 2 runs both on solo HRs and struck out 5 in his only appearance. He proved that the Phillies can hang with the best team in baseball as long as they have their Ace on the mound. His record improved to 7-4 with the victory.

Honorary Mention - Phillies Bullpen: The Phillies have had the best bullpen in baseball all season and last week was no exception to this rule. Their combined line for the week: 19 IP, 15 H, 3 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 23 K, 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP

Goat of the Week - SP Brett Myers: This could very easily have been Chase Utley (who is in the midst of a career high 0-20 slump) but a team can win without one hitter but they cannot win when their starting pitcher doesn't give them at least a shot at a game. Brett failed to do that on Sunday and because of that he earns top billing this week as the Goat. His line was a pathetic 6 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 HR, 9.00 ERA.

A Tale of Two Bretts

2008-06-13T14:30:00.002-04:00

So Brett Myers has pretty much been the most disappointing player on the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies. I had very high hopes for him coming into the season after a very strong Spring Training and his being named Opening Day starter by Manager Charlie Manuel. In the course of the first 2.5 months of the season, Brett has pretty much managed to shatter all of those hopes and destroy any remaining reputation he had of being a legit starter in the Majors. Harsh words yes but true nonetheless. Myers has had a truly dismal start to his season and after 14 starts its getting to the point where it is quite obvious that this is not a slump or bad stretch. He is no longer the pitcher he was earlier in his career or even last season in the bullpen. If you look at his numbers, you would assume that he has been completely ineffective this year and you would also probably question the sanity of the Phillies Front Office that keeps sending him out there every 5th day to pitch. However, if you dig slightly deeper, you'll see a very odd and unexplainable trend. Simply put, Brett Myers cannot pitch effectively outside Citizens Bank Park. His Home/Road splits are phenomenal. At home, he appears to be the top of the rotation starter that he is billed as. On the road, he looks as if he wandered out of the stands before the start of the game and was given a uniform and told to pitch that night.

Home: 7 GS, 3.66 ERA, 3-2 record, 46.2 IPs, 37 H, 22 R, 19 ER, 8 HR, 18 BB, 50 K, .215 BAA
Road: 7 GS,. 7.32 ERA, 0-6 record, 39.1 IPs, 59 H, 33 R, 32 ER, 10 HR, 20 BB, 26 K, .353 BAA

As you can see, the splits aren't even close. His ERA is 3.7 runs higher on the road and the opposing team turns into a bunch of Ty Cobbs batting .353 against him. Myers has done better at home for 3 straight seasons now despite playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of baseball, but the split has never been this extreme. For instance if you look at 2006 and 2007, you'll see similar splits in his ERA but not nearly as large a gap:

2006

Home: 3.73 ERA, .233 BAA
Road: 4.06 ERA, .277 BAA

2007

Home: 3.76 ERA, .209 BAA
Road: 5.04 ERA, .262 BAA

Again, there is no real explanation for the splits due to any type of park effect. Its clearly a mental issue with him. He simply pitches much better at home than on the road. A lot of players do better at home and Brett is hardly unusual for being one of them. He is unique, however, in the huge gap of his splits.

So what could it be? Is it mental? Does he simply feel comfortable on the mound at CBP? Does he get more pumped by the home fans? Whatever the explanation, he is absolutely killing the Phillies when he starts on the road this year and they cannot continue to pitch him every 5 days if he's gonna give up 7 or 8 runs in a road game. They won't win many of his starts doing that.

Myers has to figure out what is wrong with him and figure it out fast or the Phillies will not be able to make a run into the playoffs.

Weekly Awards

2008-06-06T14:23:00.004-04:00

Player of the Week - 2B Chase Utley: Utley was bored this past week so he decided to homer in 5 straight games for the second time this season. With his hot start this season he has thrown his name in the hat for discussion as one of the best players in all of baseball and clearly the best 2B in the game today. The Phillies are extremely lucky to have such a star play for them everyday. The most special part of Utley is his work ethic and will to win. When Utley was first drafted, even his most optimistic supporters did not project him to do this well. Most projected him as a utility infielder or even a platoon-type player who couldn't hit leftys. Now he hits leftys at least as well as rights and he has gone from being much below average defensively to a top 5 defender at his position. All in all, he is a true superstar. That said, he had a very strong week leading the Phillies with 4 HRs and a .360 avg in 7 games. He went 9 for 25 with 7 Rs and 7 RBI for the week and even chipped in with 1 SB. He posted a very impressive 1.328 OPS as well.

Pitcher of the Week - CP Brad Lidge: You can't win games without a great bullpen and Brad Lidge has anchored one of the best bullpens in the majors all season. This week was no exception as Brad picked up 3 saves in 3 opportunities without allowing a single run. He allowed 1 hit in 3 IPs and struck out 4. Right now the Lidge trade is looking to be the finest move of the Gillick regime.

Goat of the Week - SS Jimmy Rollins: Jimmy has been dogging it recently and was actually benched by manager Charlie Manuel for failing to run out a pop-out in yesterday's game against the Cincinnati Reds. Hopefully Charlie was able to knock some sense into the reigning MVP. This behavior is quite uncharacteristic for the star SS and team leader and hopefully he turns it around in short order. His line for the week: 7 G, .185 avg (5 for 27), 2 RBI, 2 SOs, .222 SLG, .407 OPS.

5 In A Row!

2008-06-03T12:47:00.004-04:00

That's 5 straight games with a HR by 2B Chase Utley. Granted these little HR streaks are getting boring as Utley has now accomplished this same feat twice this year but its still impressive. Oh, in other news, the Phillies won 5-4 and are still in 1st place in the NL East.

Minor League Awards

2008-06-01T19:56:00.003-04:00

It's time for the monthly awards again starting with the Phillies minor league system. Its been an up and down month for the Phillies farm system. The IronPigs have turned it around and are now playing like a respectable ball club. Another good month like this last one and they'll likely be out of last place. Several top prospects have stumbled including SP Andrew Carpenter who was just demoted from AA Reading down to A+ Clearwater. SP Antonio Bastardo (AA) has been so-so since his promotion to Reading and he no longer appears to be the uber-prospect he seemed in Clearwater. To anyone who knows his stuff, this is not a surprise. Still, there is hope that he will make something of himself and become a contributor at the Major League level in the next few years. At the AAA level, C Jason Jaramillo has turned it around and he is now sporting a much more respectable .240's batting average after a dreadful start. Due to his age, 28 this year, he appears to be trade bait to a team needing a good backup this summer. That said, its time for the awards:

Monthly Awards:

Minor League Player of the Month - C Lou Marson: Marson may have solidified his spot as the top position prospect in the Phillies organization with a truly awesome performance this month. He batted .394 (37 of 94) for the month with 24 RBIs and 2o runs scored. He picked up 10 extra-base hits (8 2Bs, 2 HR) in the process and walked more than he struck out (20BBs vs. 17 SOs). Most impressively, he posted a .500 OBP for the month along with a 1.043 OPS. He is also finally getting national attention appearing on Baseball Prospectus' Hot Sheet this month. At this point, Marson looks to be the catcher of the future for the Phillies and he could turn into a real star.

Minor League Pitcher of the Month - LHP R.J. Swindle: Despite not having a 90 MPH fastball, Swindle continues to post very impressive numbers at every level of the minors and this month was no exception. In 9 appearances, Swindle pitched 12 1/3 innings giving up 1 earned run for a 0.73 ERA. He has allowed just 6 hits for the month and exhibited his trademark of excellent control with 13 Ks and just 1 BB. Despite his unorthodox stuff, the Phillies are running out of excuses of why not to promote Swindle to the Show.

Honorable Mention:

OF Greg Golson (AA): Golson had another strong month in Reading and it appears his projected power is starting to appear. After hitting just 2 HRs in all of April, he hit 5 for the month of May. He also had another strong month with a .336 avg and 8 SBs. He still needs a lot of work on his plate discipline (35 SOs vs. 5 BBs) however and he is not ready for the Show yet. Still, he is showing some very positive signs.

2B Adrian Cardenas (A+): Cardenas had a strong month back from an early season injury. He went 21 of 65 (.323) at the plate along with 10 extra-base hits (3 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 4 HRs). He also showed great plate discipline (11 BBs vs. 9 SOs) and he appears to be another great position prospect in the Phillies system.

SP Drew Naylor (A): The Phillies top Aussie prospect posted another strong month for the Lakewood BlueClaws (A) going 3-0 with a 3.11 ERA. He struck out 39 in 37 1/3 innings pitched. He also exhibited good control walking just 8 batters on the month. Naylor will likely be promoted to Clearwater shortly after the upcoming amateur draft.

Chase Utley...MVP!!!

2008-05-31T13:48:00.006-04:00

Chase Utley could very well be the best player in all of baseball right now and we have the privilege of watching him every night. Simply put, Chase Utley is the Most Valuable Player in all of baseball this year. So far this season: .312 AVG, 20 HRs, 50 RBI, 47 R, 16 2Bs, 1.063 OPS.

Bold=League Leader

Weekly Awards

2008-05-30T15:54:00.004-04:00

Well, I don't have much time today so here's an abbreviated Weekly Wrap. We had a really good week and the offense showed up...now its time for the weekly awards:

Player of the Week - CF Shane Victorino: For a "bench" player, Vic had a great week "subbing" for injured starter Jayson Werth. Vic went 11 for 25 (.440) on the week with 9 R, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 1 SO, 5 SBs, 0 CS, and a .533/1.013 OBP/OPS. Great effort Vic!!!

Honorable Mention: Pete Happy batted .346 on the week with 8 RBI.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Adam Eaton: Eaton probably didn't have the best week of the staff...that honor belongs to Kendrick in his best start of the season but Eaton had 2 very solid starts going 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in 13 IP. His WHIP for the week was a very respectable 1.08. Good Job Adam.

Goat of the Week - C Carlos Ruiz: Chooch had an off week even for him: 3 of 16 for a .188 Avg in 5 games. He's also be giving up a bunch of playing time recently to fellow catcher.

A Star In The Making?

2008-05-28T13:00:00.005-04:00

Back in 2004, the Phillies used their 4th round pick (122nd overall) on a quarterback (yes, a QB) out of Coronado High School in Scottsdale, AZ named Lou Marson. Marson was immediately converted into a catcher and his trip throught the minor leagues began. Marson was assigned to the Gulf Coast League that season and immediately did well. He batted .257 in 38 games with the Gulf Coast League Phillies and demonstrated signs of what has become his trademark as a prospect: getting on base. He walked 13 times in 113 ABs giving him a .333 OBP. In 2005 he quickly progressed as a 19 year-old to Short Season Single-A Batavia where he continued to get on base and play above average defense for the MuckDogs. He batted a somewhat low .247 that season in 6o games, but he continued to get on base gathering 27 BBs in 220 ABs. In 2006 he moved up another level to Lakewood (A-) and his progress continued. He increased his BB/AB total for the 3rd straight season despite moving up a level each year and he continued to contribute plus defense behind the plate. The only major criticism of him at this point was his lack of power. While he had been getting on base, he was not hitting the ball over the fence nor was he batting above the .250 range. Despite this criticism, his other attributes assured his promotion to Clearwater in 2007. Marson's 2007 campaign was a wakeup call for both Marson and the Phillies Front Office. Before 2007, Marson was a nice prospect that projected as a utility catcher behind fellow prospect C Jason Jaramillo or as a decent backup in the Majors. After his 07 season, Marson started to look more and more like a star player in the making. He maintained his walk rate while adding 40 points to his batting average. In 111 games he posted a .288 AVG with a .373 OBP. He also kept his strike-out rate down, whiffing only 80 times in 393 ABs. All of a sudden, Marson was showing the potential to be an everyday player in the majors. He was succeeding as a 20 year-old catcher in High A ball. As a 21 year-old this year, he was slotted to be the everyday catcher at AA Reading where the Phillies had high hopes that he would build on his very successful 2007 campaign while jumping another level in the minors. The jump between A+ ball and AA ball is considered the most difficult transition a young prospect can make and it usually separates the wheat from the chaff when it comes to prospects. Marson, however, shot out of the gate in Reading. So far, it looks as though Marson has managed to put everything together this season and he is off to a torrid start.

His line through the first two months is as follows:

G: 43
AB: 148
R: 24
H: 51
2B: 10
HR: 2
RBI: 32
BB: 31
SO: 33
AVG: .345 (1st in the EL)
OBP: .458 (2nd in the EL)
OPS: .912 (7th in the EL)

He has continued to get on base, but his batting average is now in the stratosphere. He's up 60 points from last season despite making the hardest jump in the minors from A to AA. Combined with outstanding defense on his part (39% caught stealing) and you now have a great prospect who's only 21 going on 22. If he can keep up his production this season, he will be a very valuable piece to have in the organization. Considering the age of the current catchers in front of him (Coste is 35, Ruiz is 29) and his ability, he'll likely be in Philly sooner rather than later. Depending on what happens this off-season, Marson could easily have an invitation to camp next Spring followed by a mid-season call-up if he continues to show this much potential. One thing is for certain: C Lou Marson is now on the map.

Pete Happy or Rally Killer?

2008-05-27T09:49:00.010-04:00

Which one is the real Pedro Feliz? 3B Pedro Feliz was a controversial signing for the Phillies this off-season for several reasons. He doesn't take a lot of pitches, nor does he hit for average or get on-base more than 30 % of the time. He does however have an outstanding glove and gives the Phillies 2 Gold Glove caliber fielders on the left side of the diamond. We're now just two months into a two year experiment by Pat Gillick on what is more important from the Hot Corner: Offense or Defense? For the first month of the season, Feliz was absolutely brutal at the plate and he quickly earned the ire of the Phillies fateful as a Rally Killer who either would pop up weakly or ground into a double-play in a critical situation. He didn't do the little things at the plate like advancing the runner or sacrificing a run in. He was more liable to simply swing at the first pitch and weakly end an inning and a potential rally. After about 3 weeks of this type of play, I dubbed him Rally Killer in honor of his dubious penchant for doing exactly that.

The bottom line is that Feliz is simply a flawed player. He is outstanding defensively and he has decent power for a 3B but he will not ever have a high OBP nor will he take pitches. Its simply not in him. A high-water mark for him statistically as a Phillie would be something in the 25 HR, 80 RBI, .305 OBP range with around 20 GIDPs and great defense. Considering what he was replacing in the Helms/Dobbs/Nunez platoon, I would consider it a slight, albeit very costly, upgrade. While Dobbs is a much better hitter than Feliz, he is absolutely brutal in the field. The same could be said for the projected Helms/Dobbs platoon that the Phillies were slated to use before the Feliz signing: Decent offensively but way below average defensively. Dobbs is much more useful as a utility player and pinch-hitter than as an everyday 3B and the Phillies recognize that fact. While Feliz is not the ideal option for the Phillies at 3B, he was the best available option at the time and, money being no option, was a good signing.

The Numbers:

Offense

...................G....AB...R....H....2B...HR..RBI...BB...SO....AVG....OBP.....OPS

Current:....52...181..19...49.......11.....7......26.....11....18......271.......313......760

Projected:.61..560...59..152......34...22.....81.....34....56......271.......313......760

.................................................................................................................................

Defense

.................................................................................................................................

Errors: 4 (4th in MLB)

Fielding %: .970 (5th in MLB)

Range Factor: 2.97 (6th in MLB)

Zone Rating: .812 (6th in MLB)

.................................................................................................................................

Feliz is giving the Phillies outstanding defense with average offense at the moment. Considering that the Phillies already have one of the most explosive offenses in the Majors, I would argue that Feliz was primarily signed for his defensive prowess, which he has demonstrated consistently so far.

.................................................................................................................................

Conclusions: For now your moniker will be Pete Happy until you hit another slump at which time I may reevaluate my decision and go back to Rally Killer.

Happy Memorial Day!

2008-05-25T22:52:00.003-04:00

Have a happy Memorial Day and remember the sacrifice that your military makes to keep you safe. As a veteran who is happy to be healthy and alive...Happy Memorial Day!

P.S. Awesome offensive performance today by the Phillies offense.

Weekly Wrap

2008-05-23T14:47:00.002-04:00

The Phillies had a mediocre 4-3 record this week. The offense was pretty much non-existent for the first half of the week, however the bats came alive and they were able the finish the week on a 3 game winning streak. 1B Ryan Howard is finally hitting again and the rest of the offense appears to be finally clicking. The starting pitching continues to be hit or miss but both Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer gave strong performances on the week. Both Adam Eaton and Kyle Kendrick were hammered in their starts with Myers performing somewhat in the middle. A strong bench and excellent bullpen continue to carry the club. That said, its time for the Weekly Awards:

Player of the Week - 1B Ryan Howard/SS Jimmy Rollins: In a tight race, I decided to award a tie as both players had great offensive weeks. Howard batted .321 with 4 HRs and 9 RBI on the week while Rollins batted .367 with 6 2Bs, 17 total bases, and 2 SBs.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Jamie Moyer: Moyer went 2-0 on the week while posting a 2.13 ERA. He provided pretty much the only quality starting pitching the Phillies had all week outside of Ace Cole Hamels. Without his two strong starts the Phillies easily could have gone 2-5 instead of 4-3.

Goat of the Week - SP Kyle Kendrick: It didn't take much for Kendrick to clinch the award for the week. In 2 starts, he went 6 innings and posted a 7.50 ERA. He gets a little bit of a break because his stats are slightly skewed by a 1 inning outing due to a rain delay against Toronto.

The Resurgence of Ryan Howard

2008-05-23T10:08:00.005-04:00

This off-season, Ryan Howard was rewarded for his first 2 seasons in the Majors with a record-breaking arbitration award of $10 million for the 2008 season. While he may or may not be worth that much money, that decision put a huge target on Howard's back. Much like ARODs record-breaking deals have done to him, Howard now had to prove that a bloated contract was legitimate and I feel that this put a perhaps unfair amount of pressure on him and it also created an unfair amount of expectations from the Philadelphia fans.
Howard started off very strong in Spring Training and he appeared to be poised to have a career season much like his 2006 effort where he came home with the MVP trophy. However, on Opening Day everything fell apart. By the end of April, Howard was batting a brisk .172 and he was on pace to shatter his own single-season strikeout mark. Things hit a low point for Howard on May 7th when, after a 0-4 performance on the night and 1-20 performance on the week, he average stood at a grisly .163. That night, fed up with his pitiful start to the season, I decided to start tracking Howard's pursuit of history in shattering the Single-Season strikeout record. I created and displayed a "K-Watch" on this blog for all to see his pathetic efforts on the year. Also, since that day, in an ironic twist Howard began to start hitting. Slowly at first and more rapidly of late, Howard has gotten good contact on pitches and he has started going the opposite way to avoid the Shift defense arrayed for him. In the 14 games since that dark morning of the .163 average, Howard has posted an impressive line:

.304 AVG, .361 OBP, 15 R, 15 RBI, 3 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR.

While overall he hasn't been on fire, he is now hitting around his career norms which are impressive to begin with. The one negative for Howard is that he is still striking out a ton (21 Ks in 14 games). The bottom line that we will have to accept is that Howard is simply not a .300 hitter and he probably never will be. He strikes out far too much to hit for high average and his swing is far too prone to long slumps and shorter hot streaks.

Where Will He End Up?

The major questions now are will he keep up his resurgence and what will his end of season numbers look like? My guess is that he may not hit .300 the rest of the way but something like .280 is very possible. To be optimistic, lets say he hits .300 for the rest of the season. Even if that happens, he will end up with an average of .272 on the year (or about 10 points of his career batting average). At this point I would be ecstatic if Howard ends up batting in the .270s after his dreadful start. He will also more than like end up with over 40 HRs and 100 RBIs. Even with his horrible start he was on pace to hit both those marks so he honestly could be closer to 50 HRs and 120 RBIs and unfortunately 230 Ks.

Looking back at a season where he hits 40-50 HRs, knocks in 120 runs and hits around his career norms for average, Howard will likely say he had a good year and feel he should win arbitration again but should he really? Howard is no Albert Pujols and he never will be. Pujols is an elite hitter who hits for both high power and high average while playing Gold-Glove defense at 1B. Howard is a one-dimensional slugger who either smashes the ball or strikes out. There is no legitimate comparison no matter what Howard's agent will tell the Phillies Front Office. At age 29, Howard is looking for a long-term deal before it becomes clears that he is in a decline phase and the Phillies do not appear all that interested in locking up a player who's best years are likely already behind him. Now, I truly believe that if Howard were to take a respectable but not outrageous contract along the lines of the Chase Utley's deal, that they would already have a deal in place. However, Howard appears to want a record-setting contract that the Phillies will not and should not offer him. I will go out on a limb here and predict that Howard will not be in a Phillies uniform by the end of 2010 and that the Phillies will not come close to offering him what he feels he deserves. We should enjoy the ride while it lasts because the Phillies have a very brief window (2008-2010) where they have a core group of players like Howard that will allow them to compete for a World Series.

Return to Normalcy/Weekly Awards

2008-05-16T10:53:00.005-04:00

Well 1B Ryan Howard is back and his slump is over. That's right, its over! Ever since I posted a K-Watch on this blog, Howard (clearly an ardent reader) has turned it around and raised his average over 25 points. He had a great week and he looks like he's regained his swing which has been missing since Spring Training. I would like to take this moment to claim personal responsibility for his turn-around. Overall, this week the Phillies offense has been very productive, but their starting pitching is continuing to kill them with only SP Cole Hamels giving them anything resembling a major-league performance. Both SP Jamie Moyer and SP Brett Myers were blown out in their starts, while SP Kyle Kendrick extended his QS streak to 4 games with another 6 IPs/3 ER performance.

Back From Injury: SS Jimmy Rollins had a strong week back from his ankle injury. He went 8 for 28 (.286) with 4 extra base hits and 14 total bases on the week. He also managed to steal 2 bases so it looks like his ankle is fully healthy which is a great sign for the rest of the season.

Down For The Count: SP Scott Mathieson underwent a second Tommy John surgery on his elbow on Thursday and a 3rd surgery overall on the same elbow since 2006. It sadly looks like his Phillies career is over before it started. Good luck with your recovery Scott. (Note: Recovery rate from 2nd TJ surgery= 30%)

Missing In Action: Fastball, low-to-mid 90's velocity, 4-seamer...last seen in posession of SP Brett Myers in 2007. If you know the whereabouts of this object please contact the Philadelphia Phillies immediately at:

Citizens Bank Park
One Citizens Bank Way
Philadelphia, PA 19148
215-463-1000

Brett continues to struggle and his fastball velocity is way down for the year. He is getting hammered this season and is on pace to allow 58 HRs. His ERA is currently a team-worst 5.91.

On that note, its time for the Weekly Awards:

Player of the Week - 1B Ryan Howard: Well, I never thought I'd see the day but Ryan Howard has proved how quickly a player can go from being the goat to the hero this week. Ryan went 7 for 24 (.292) with 3 HRs/5 RBIs and also led the team in Total bases with 19 on the week. He chipped in 1 2B and 1 3B and posted a 1.112 OPS for the week. His hitting streak is at a season-best 7 games. Looks like the long slump is over. (I'm keeping the K-Watch up just to motivate you, Ryan)

Pitcher of the Week - SP Cole Hamels: Is there even a question of this? 2 Starts, 2 Wins on the week. Hamels went 2-0 on the week pitching 16 innings and striking out 13 along with a 2.25 ERA. He is the only dependable starter in the Phillies rotation right now and he has been a life-saver so far for them this year. I would like to pause at this point to thank GM Pat Gillick personally for flat out saying that the Phillies will not even consider locking up Hamels long-term at this point. I always appreciate when the Front Office goes out of its way to piss off a star player for no reason whatsoever. Way to go Pat! Hamels is on pace to pitch 250 innings this year which is a tad high, but I'm certain that that number will drop as the season goes on. So far he has been very effective at going deep into games and he was finally able to post his first CG shutout last night while throwing a somewhat questionable 120 pitches. We'll see if this much increased workload effects him in the 2nd half of the season.

Goat of the Week - SP Brett Myers: For an Opening Day starter, Brett has looked anything but dominating so far this season and this week's performance could easily be a microcosm of that. Brett was blown out by the Braves allowing 3 HRs in 4 1/3 IPs to post a 12.46 ERA on the week. His fastball is missing in action and he has had very little control on his other pitches. He has however been absolutely on fire at throwing whiny 4-year-old girl temper tantrums in the dugout when a call doesn't go his way. Grow up Brett and actually pay attention to your coaches!

Ryan Howard: What To Do?

2008-05-11T22:38:00.003-04:00

1B Ryan Howard is clearly struggling at the plate and he has been struggling all season. With almost a quarter of the season complete, he has compiled a dismal line of .171/.280/.357 AVG/OBP/SLG, 7 HR, 19 RBI and a whopping 54 SOs in 140 ABs. Currently he is on pace for 100 H and 224 Ks on the season, which would be great if he was a starting pitcher. Unfortunately he is the Phillies #4 hitter and is currently a black hole when it comes to offense from the middle of the order. So what should Manager Charlie Manuel do about the situation?

Option #1: Bench Howard for a couple of games

Charlie already tried this but he can never seem to leave Howard on the bench. Each time he has given Howard the day off for "rest", he ends up pinch-hitting him in the later innings. Howard inevitably strikes out which further weakens his confidence.

Option #2: Move him down in the order

This option hasn't been tried yet and it is uncertain that it would work. Its also uncertain that there is anyone else to put in the #4 spot without completely screwing up the Phillies already weak offense. Utley prefers batting 3rd and Burrell is already in the midst of his own slump batting .185 in his last 7 games. Rollins and Victorino are naturally #1 and #2 respectively. Statistically there is nothing to suggest that moving Burrell up in the order would hurt anything. He has a .264 avg with 30 HRs/108 RBIs in 545 ABs over the past 3 season out of the 4 hole so he would be comfortable moving up a spot. Also, Howard's statistics are pretty much identical no matter where he's batting in the lineup so it probably wouldn't hurt to move him down a couple of spots until he finds his swing. However, Manuel likely won't do this because he believes in supporting his players and sticking with them through slumps.

Clearly, I support Option #2 as the Phillies are not about to bench Howard no matter how poorly he is batting. Moving him down will send a message that this type of performance is unacceptable while at the same time allowing him to bat in less pressure situations. It is much different batting in the #6 spot than the batting cleanup. Perhaps moving him down in the lineup will allow him to stay on pitches and stop him from trying to knock everything out of the park It can't hurt, but it seems that Manuel won't even consider it. Until he does the Phillies offense is gonna continue to stumble along and they will have to rely on an increasingly porous starting rotation and a bullpen that is starting to show early signs of overuse.

What a Joke!!!

2008-05-11T22:27:00.004-04:00

The Phillies dropped 2 of 3 to the lowly SF Giants over the weekend due to shaky pitching and a nonexistent offense. 1B Ryan Howard continued to struggle although technically he now is in the midst of a mind-blowing 4 game hitting streak in which he has accumulated all of 4 hits. He is currently batting .171 on the season and really proving why he deserved $10 million in arbitration. LF Pat Burrell has finally come back to earth although he is continuing to take pitches (.185 avg over the past week but a .385 OBP) so he is at least getting on base even if he is slumping with the bat. SS Jimmy Rollins had a wonderful comeback from injury his first game back going 3-5 with a HR and a 2B. However, he is hitless since then putting up an impressive 0-9 in his second two games back. Even 2B Chase Utley is in the midst of a mini slump and now has just 2 hits in his past 20 ABs. Clearly the offense disappeared on this West Coast roadtrip. The pitching has also been questionable and now the bullpen is also starting to show cracks after J.C. Romero blew the lead in today's game causing the Phillies to lose 4-3.

Luckily the Phillies have tomorrow off and they get to go back home to face Atlanta for a 3 game set and after that Toronto to close out the week with another 3 games. Hopefully the Phillies will do better in the friendly confines of Citizen's Bank Park than they did on their recent road trip.

Weekly Wrapup/Awards

2008-05-09T13:11:00.004-04:00

The Phillies had another decent week posting a 4-3 record in their last 7 games and they are hovering in 2nd place in the NL East a game back of the Florida Marlins. 1B Ryan Howard continues to be absolutely pathetic at the plate and SS Jimmy Rollins missed the entire week still out with his ankle injury. However, Rollins is expected to be activated before tonight's game in San Francisco so the Phillies will finally be back to full strength for the first time since the first week of the season. LF Pat Burrell appears to have cooled off after going a dismal 4-22 in the past seven days. The Phillies starting pitching had a so-so week having 4 Quality Starts in 7 chances, 2 of them oddly enough from 4th starter Kyle Kendrick who appears to be on a nice run of mediocrity right now. That said, its time for the weekly awards:

Player of the Week - UT Eric Bruntlett: Well it was an impressive repeat performance from utility man Eric Bruntlett. Eric once again played very well in Rollins absence going 9-29 (.310) and leading the team with 16 Total Bases. He had 2 2Bs, 1 3B, and 1 HR on the week along with a team leading 8 RBI and 6 Runs scored. Another great week for Eric.

Pitcher of the Week - CP Brad Lidge: Lidge was once again unhittable this week in 4 appearances. He gave up 2 hits and no runs while picking of 1 save in as many chances. Right now he is completely on top of his game and hitters are pretty much helpless against him. (Note: CF Michael Bourn is batting .197 in Houston...Thanks Ed Wade!!!)

Goat of the Week - 1B Ryan Howard: Was there even a question of Howard not being the goat this week? He now has his own permanent segment where I will be counting down how many Ks he needs to break his own Single Season MLB record. Right now he is on pace to shatter his mark by more than 30 Ks. Keep up the good work Ryan! His line for the week: 2 for 24 with 12 Ks. Both hits were singles and he managed to drop his batting average down to .165 after posting an .083 average for the week. He is now 190th out of 191 qualifed batters for the MLB batting title. Only injured SS Troy Tulowitzki has a lower batting average on the year. He has a solid lead in the MLB SO rankings at 51 Ks on the year but Arizona 3B Mark Reynolds is nipping at his heels just 5 back at 46 Ks.

The Maturation of Cole Hamels

2008-05-06T14:06:00.004-04:00

Over the past three seasons, we have had the treat of watching a star pitcher slowly emerge in South Philly. The Phillies left-handed Ace Cole Hamels has managed to improve his numbers each season he has been in the Majors and appears to be on the verge of making a dominant run as a number one pitcher. Hamels broke into the Majors at the ripe age of 22 back in 2006 and he hasn't looked back since. He started 23 games in 2006 and posted a solid 9-8 record with a 4.08 ERA. He also struck out 145 in just 132.1 innings. He improved upon his 06 campaign last year by becoming the Phillies best pitcher with a 15-5 record, 177 Ks in 183 innings. While his K/9 rating went down, all the rest of his secondary numbers went up. He has continued this trend in his first 7 starts in 2008. While his record is a very average looking 3-3, his ERA has dropped again to 3.10.

Key Indicators to Consider when looking at Hamels stats:

Category #1: How hard is he working to get guys out?

Pitches per AB:

2006: 3.91
2007: 3.76
2008: 3.71

Trend: Improving

Pitches Per Inning:

2006: 16.5
2007: 15.2
2008: 14.9

Trend: Improving

Category #2: How are hitters performing against him?

Batting Average Against:

2006: .237
2007: .237
2008: .213

Trend: Improving

Slugging Against:

2006: .426
2007: .403
2008: .366

Trend: Improving

Category #3: How Efficient Has Hamels Been?

Pitches Per Game Started:

2006: 94.7
2007: 97.7
2008: 105.1

Trend: Improving

Innings Per Start:

2006: 5.74
2007: 6.55
2008: 7.05

Trend: Improving

Analysis: Basically, Cole has become a much more efficient pitcher from 06 to 08 and his statistics demonstrate an upward trend in several important categories. He is using less pitches to get guys out and to complete innings and because of this, he is pitching much deeper into games. He is also giving up less hits and baserunners than he did in 2006 and batters are hitting for less power. While his K/9 rate has declined from 9.86 in 06 to 7.48 this season, this is not a sign of decline, but rather a sign that he is becoming a smarter pitcher. He is no longer pitching for the strikeout but rather to get the batter out in the easiest and quickest way.

Weekly Awards/Monthly Awards

2008-05-02T13:05:00.004-04:00

Another week down and another good week for the Fightin' Phils. The Phillies find themselves alone atop the NL East for the first time all season with a 16-13 record going into tonight's contests. Despite inconsistent starting pitching, minimal contributions from slugger 1B Ryan Howard, and injuries to the top 2 of their lineup (SS Jimmy Rollins and CF Shane Victorino), the Phillies have chugged along to their first winning April since 2003. An outstanding bullpen and MVP performances from LF Pat Burrell and 2B Chase Utley have carried them so far.

Pleasant Surprises:

1. Outstanding performances by the bullpen including the reemergence of CP Brad Lidge as an elite closer. Gordon, Durbin, Seanez, and Romero have all been lights out as well.

2. LF Pat Burrell is in a contract year and he is performing well above his career averages in all aspects of the game, offensively and defensively. Keep gunnin' for that new contract Pat!

3. A strong bench led by now part-time starter OF Jayson Werth, 3B Greg Dobbs, UT Eric Bruntlett and C Chris Coste have all chipped in to help win ballgames during the first month of the season. Both Bruntlett and Werth have found themselves in the starting lineup for extended periods of time with the injuries to Rollins and Victorino and both have done their job.

Troubling Issues:

1. 1B Ryan Howard started off the season in horrible fashion and is still batting well below the Mendoza line posting a .184 AVG after 29 games with 39 SOs in just 103 ABs.

2. SS Jimmy Rollins ankle injury appears far worse than was originally believed and he could miss even more time than previously estimated. This could very well turn into one of those nagging injuries that follows him all season. There is no timetable on his return at this point. They were hoping for him to start a rehab assignment this month, but he is still feeling pain in his ankle during fielding drills and baserunning. It could be a while.

3. Other than SP Cole Hamels, the rotation has been mediocre at best. SP Brett Myers has lost his fastball, SP Jamie Moyer and SP Adam Eaton are giving them replacement level innings and SP Kyle Kendrick has looked overmatched all season. One small glimmer of hope for Kendrick is that he is coming off 2 quality starts in his past 3 chances.

That being said its time for the Weekly and Monthly Awards...

Player of the Week - UT Eric Bruntlett: Eric actually had a very good week filling in for MVP SS Jimmy Rollins. He went 6 for 21 and is currently in the midst 9 game hitting streak while playing good defense at SS. He has made several very good plays with his glove to at least slightly ease the pain of having Rollins on the DL. His line: .286 Avg, 4 Runs, 3 RBIs and 1 SB. Basically he's finally doing what a bench player is supposed to do when a star goes down with an injury.

Pitcher of the Week - RP Tom Gordon: If you take Opening Day out of the equation then Tom Gordon has had a very good year so far. Last week was no exception. He made 3 appearances, pitching 2 2/3 innings and picked up 2 wins in the process. In those 3 appearances, he didn't not allow a hit and only walked 1 batter. He is now tied for the team lead in wins with 3.

Player of the Month - 2B Chase Utley: Utley appears to be making a strong argument for the MVP trophy this year as he is off to a monster start. He is batting .357 with 11 HRs, 23 RBI, 25 Runs, 41 hits, 10 2Bs, 1 3B, and 2 SBs. He has also posted a .748 Slugging percentage on the season. On the defensive side of things, he has posted the 5th best Range Factor and the 4th best Zone Rating in the NL along with several Web Gems in recent nights.

Pitcher of the Month - SP Cole Hamels: Cole has started 6 games, going at least 7 innings in each of his starts while compiling an ERA of 2.70. His record so far has been 3-3 but he seems to be on pace to finally have a real breakout season as a star pitcher. So far he has been a workhorse for the Phillies and his efforts have spared the bullpen from being overworked.

Minor League Monthly Awards

2008-05-01T13:27:00.004-04:00

Well it was an eventful month for the Phillies minor league system:

Lehigh Valley IronPigs: The AAA IronPigs started their first season in Allentown by posting by far the worst record in the International League at 3-24. With it, they are a whopping 15 games back after the first month. The IronPigs are a tribute of the complete lack of talent in the upper reaches of the Phillies farm system.

Reading Phillies: The AA Reading Phillies were more impressive posting a 13-12 record. Reading is also the home to most of the top Phillies prospects including SP Carlos Carrasco, SP Josh Outman, SP Andrew Carpenter, SP Fabio Castro (still just 23 years old), OF Greg Golson and C Lou Marson.

Clearwater Threshers: Despite having a decent number of solid prospects, the Clearwater Phillies (A+) got off to a dismal 9-17 start. You will find a couple of top Phillies prospects in Clearwater including SP Joe Savery out of Rice and 2B Adrian Cardenas. In addition to those two, they have several borderline prospects including SP Antonio Bastardo (off to a terrific start), SP Edgar Garcia and OF Matt Spencer.

Personally, I don't keep track of anything below A+ ball despite having a shortseason A team practically in my backyard. Until a player does something at least at the A+ level, I don't care how much "future" he has in him. That being said, here are the Player Awards for the Phillies system for April.

Player of the Month - OF Greg Golson: Golson had an outstanding first month in Reading and he appears to be continuing his pattern of having an awesome second year at each level of the minor leagues. He is a 5-tool player who appears to be on the verge of turning the corner on his tremendous athletic ability and turning into a true ballplayer. He went 32 for 100 in April while collecting 10 Extra base hits, 15 RBI, 17 Runs, 8 SB, 8 BB, and a slightly troubing 30 SOs. He had a .370 OBP and a .850 OPS for the month.

Pitcher of the Month - SP Antonio Bastardo: Scouts aren't that high on Bastardo and they have good reasons. He is short (only 5'11" tall) and has only 2 pitches at the moment. He is however a lefty and his 2 pitches are good ones. If and when he develops a legitimate 3rd pitch, he could easily be a legit starter in the majors. If not, he will likely end up as a LOOGY out of the 'Pen. He has average to above average velocity for a lefty (87-92) and his release point deceives hitters...at least at the A+ level. In 5 starts, he posted a 2-0 record with a 1.17 ERA with 47 Ks in just 30 2/3 IP. He did walk 10 batters but overall he had an outstanding month. Look for him to be promoted to Reading as soon as the weather really warms up, probably in early June.

Werth or Victorino

2008-04-30T10:54:00.004-04:00

Now that CF Shane Victorino has come off the disabled list, the Phillies and Charlie Manuel are left with a troubling dilemma of what to do in the outfield. Victorino was tagged as the team's starting CF the moment Aaron Rowand signed with the San Francisco Giants last fall. However, after getting off to a very slow start at the plate, Victorino went on the DL only to see OF Jayson Werth fill his shoes admirably in his absence. Werth has posted a very impressive line of 5 HRs, 13 RBI, 15 R while batting .289/.375/.954 in 76 ABs this season while playing above average defense in CF. Those are All-Star level numbers if he keeps it up. Victorino is batting .229 on the season with no HRs and only 2 RBIs. However, Victorino is Werth's superior at either outfield position. Werth has a plus arm and very good range in both right and center, but Victorino is an elite fielder who could be a gold-glover at some point in his career.

Defensive Breakdown in CF (2008):

Jayson Werth: 14 GS, .975 FPCT, 2.76 RF, .900 ZR, 1 assist
Shane Victorino: 12 GS, 1.000 FPCT, 2.84 RF, .969 ZR, 0 assists

Defensive Breakdown in RF (2007):

Jayson Werth: 55 GS, .983 FPCT, 2.34 RF, .912 ZR, 7 assists
Shane Victorino: 100 GS, .988 FPCT, 2.34 RF, .930 ZR, 10 assists

Range factor (RF) is an excellent measure of a fielders performance and it measures Put outs (PO) plus Assists (A) and divides it by Innings Played (IP) to give us a statistical measure of a fielder in comparison to others.

Zone Rating is a measure the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone". Anything over .900 is outstanding for a CF. For example, Andruw Jones has a .875 ZR for his career and barely brushed .900 (he did hit .922 once) during his elite Gold Glove years. His RF in his elite years ranged from a low of 2.82 to a high of 3.19.

Victorino has a slight edge in RF over Werth and a more considerable edge in CF but both are excellent defenders with strong arms who can play all 3 OF positions very well.

Basically it has to come down to matchups and who's hitting better. It also likely means that OF Geoff Jenkins will see his playing time squeezed as the season progresses. That is assuming Victorino starts hitting like he did last year and stealing bases.

Right/Left Splits:

Jayson Werth

Past 3 seasons:
vs. leftys - .316 avg
vs. rightys - .243 avg

2008:
vs. leftys - .333 avg
vs. rights - .262 avg

Shane Victorino

Past 3 seasons:
vs. leftys - .285 avg
vs. rightys - .283 avg

2008:
vs. leftys - .357 avg
vs. rightys - .176 avg

Overall, Victorino appears to be a more balanced hitter but Werth has more power from both sides of the plate. His power is offset slightly by Victorino's speed at the top of the order and on the basepaths. Werth has good speed as well but isn't quite as fast as Victorino. Both players can capably play either RF or CF and I envision Werth getting around 400-500 ABs if he keeps hitting with Jenkins losing out on playing time as a consequence. This is not exactly a bad situation for a manager to be in having two good players to choose from.

Weekly Wrap

2008-04-25T10:25:00.002-04:00

Well, its that time again. 1B Ryan Howard continues to struggle in all aspects of the game and his "cold" streak is rapidly becoming a first-half slump for the 2008 season. Luckily both LF Pat Burrell and 2B Chase Utley have picked up the pace and are 1-2 in the League in RBIs so far. Both have had PS3-type weeks that have carried an otherwise underperforming offense to a 12-11 record. The Phillies went 4-3 on the week, losing a 3 game series to the Mets 1-2, sweeping the Rockies in 2, and spliting a 2 game series with the Brewers.

Injury Update: CF Shane Victorino started a rehab assignment in Clearwater on Monday and is eligible to come off the DL on 28 April which is an off day for the Phillies. He will be available to play on the 29th if everything goes well. SS Jimmy Rollins took batting practice at Clearwater and is eligible to come off the DL on 5 May although I wouldn't hold my breath on that. SP Kris Benson continued to throw on the side and had another Bullpen session but there is still no word on when he will start a game in the minors as he continues to come back from shoulder surgery.

Weekly Awards

Player of the Week - 2B Chase Utley: It was a tough decision but Chase basically went nuts this past week with an outrageous line of: .536 AVG/.581 OBP/ 1.831 OPS, 6 HRs, 10 RBI, 8 R in 7 games. LF Pat Burrell also had a very good week but not anywhere close to Utley's.

Pitcher of the Week - CP Brad Lidge: Brad had an excellent week making 5 appearances pitching 5 innings with no earned runs allowed while picking up 3 saves in 3 opportunities. Lidge has anchored the backend of the bullpen so far this year and so far the Bourn-Lidge trade has really paid off.

Goat of the Week - 1B Ryan Howard: Yes, we all know that Howard gets off to slow starts but this is ridiculous. His line: 3 for 28, .107 Avg/.138 OBP, 13 Ks, 1 BB and no extra base hits. Keep it up Ryan, you're definitely worth $10 million per. Interesting fact: No position player on the Phillies has a lower AVG than Ryan Howard so far...only pitchers.

34%

2008-04-24T15:57:00.001-04:00

34% is the percentage of times Ryan Howard has struck out this year when he's at the plate. After going 0-2 with 2 Ks this afternoon he now has a grand total of 34Ks in 100 PAs on the year. Basically he's on pace for around 250 Ks on the year...which is great if you're a starting pitcher but not so great if you're the #4 hitter on a playoff team. Howard needs to figure it out and figure it out fast if the Phillies are going to continue to win games.

Phils Sweep Rockies

2008-04-23T10:13:00.003-04:00

2B Chase Utley continued his hot streak last night and LF Pat Burrell hit a game winning 3 RBI double in the top of the 9th to give the Phillies a 2 game series sweep against the Defending NL Champ Colorado Rockies. Both Burrell and Utley are off to monster starts this April and their contributions have carried an offense that is without the top of the order (Rollins and Victorino on DL). Their contributions have been particularly important with Slugger Ryan Howard badly slumping after another 0-4, 2 K performance that dropped his batting average to .190 on the season.

Notes: Utley's consecutive games with a HR streak is over at 5 games which ties a club record. He went 2-5 with a couple RBIs despite hitting one deep and he is now batting .433 with 6 HR, 11 RBI in his past 7 games. Burrell, in comparison, has cooled off and is only batting .370 in the past 7 games.

Phillies Hang On To Win

2008-04-21T13:35:00.002-04:00

Well UT Eric Bruntlett was able to save the day with a game saving play in the top of the 9th with the tying run in scoring position. He made a spectacular stop behind second base and threw a laser beam to first to get the runner. While I am pleased that Bruntlett was able to give us a flash of brilliance to save the game and help CP Brad Lidge close out the game, I still cannot wait to get SS Jimmy Rollins back at shortstop and at the top of the lineup where he is desperately needed.

Hot Streak: All-Star 2B Chase Utley hit two more HRs last night and now has HRs in 4 straight games. If he homers tonight against the Colorado Rockies he will tie the club record for consecutive games with a HR. So far, Utley and LF Pat Burrell have carried the club offensively while the rest of the lineup has struggled to produce runs. Burrell also made an excellent running catch up against the wall in the later innings that helped give the Phillies the win. Pat has been well above his career average in all aspects of the game from hitting to fielding this year.

Behind the Plate: It looks like C Chris Coste will probably earn himself some more playing time. He is batting .385 on the season and he went 1 for 4 last night. He has now started 3 of the last 4 games in place of C Carlos Ruiz who is healthy.

What the Heck?: 1B Ryan Howard has been awful so far this season both defensively and offensively. He is batting a miniscule .186 including going 1 for 13 against the Mets over the weekend. The hometown crowd has taken notice and has taken to booing him loudly...especially after he strikes out. He has struck out 27 times in just 70 ABs and he is well on his way to breaking his own single season strikeout record. The former MVP needs to step it up quickly if the Phillies are to have any chance of winning the NL East.

Bad Luck: SP Adam Eaton had a stellar performance through the first 5 innings last night and thats when the wheels finally came off the bus. He didn't record an out in the 6th and was charged with 4 earned runs to get the no decision. He had a streak of 3 straight quality starts going into last night. He did keep the Phillies in the game which is the important part. Pitching has not been the problem so far this year.

Living Dangerously: Uncle Charlie has relied quite a bit on the bullpen so far this year especially RP Chad Durbin. Durbin has pitched 14 innings in 10 appearances in the Phillies first 19 games. At his current pace, he will pitch 119 innings out of the pen. I'm betting his arm will fall off first.

Rollins On DL

2008-04-20T17:26:00.002-04:00

Well after two weeks of watching SS Jimmy Rollins limp around the clubhouse and limp out to the batters box in feeble attempts at pinchhitting, club management finally made the long overdue decision to place him on the 15 Day DL. This is exactly what should have happened in the first couple days after the injury instead of two weeks later. So we can chalk this one up as an idiotic and cowardly move by the Phillies Training Staff and Manager Charlie Manuel. They should have known that JRoll is the kind of player that will try to play no matter how injured he is and not trusted his opinion of the injury. That's what they get for...to make tough decisions about the health of the players. Because of their complete ineptitude, Jroll will now miss at least another two weeks of the season at a time where the Mets seem to be slowly pulling away with the NL East lead. Way to go Uncle Charlie!!!

Now that my rant is over I should mention that OF Chris Snelling was also placed on the DL today and that SS Brad Harmon was called up from AA to take Rollins roster spot and OF T.J. Boh was recalled from AAA to replace Snelling.

Weekly Wrap

2008-04-18T12:46:00.003-04:00

Well it was an up and down week for the Phillies in what has so far been an up and down year. SS Jimmy Rollins is still out of the lineup and is projected to be available possibly Saturday. I suspect however that he will probably not start until Sunday night at the earliest. The Phillies have missed his presence at the top of the lineup along with the speedy Victorino who is still out recovering from a calf strain. CF Shane Victorino looks to return on Apr 29 when he is eligible to come off the DL. Reports on his status are positive and his strain is less severe than originally thought. Hopefully he will be able to slide back into the lineup and give the Phillies another speedy leadoff type guy at the top of the lineup. OF Jayson Werth has been very solid in his place and is batting .370 on the year with 1 HR/5 RBI. It will be nice to get Werth back into his platoon role in RF along with Jenkins. I think it is safe to say that he has earned himself some additional ABs with his performance in the past 2 weeks. That being said, its time for the Weekly Awards:

Player of the Week - LF Pat Burrell: Pat continues to mash the ball in his contract year and he leads the team in all offensive categories. He went 7 for 20 with 5 BBs this week along with 3 HRs and 8 RBI and 6 Runs scored. He is also been playing outstanding defense (for him) in LF. Both his Range Factor (RF) and Zone Rating (ZR) are well above his career norms so far this year. For a player that is much maligned for his mediocre fielding he has been stellar in LF. He has simply been carrying the Phillies so far this season.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Brett Myers: Brett is 2-0 this week with an ERA of 2.40. In 2 starts he has gone 15 Innings while striking out 13 and walking only 1. His BAA is a mere .185 in those starts. He has really turned it on and begun challenging hitters with his fastball after a slow start to the season.

Goat of the Week - UT Eric Bruntlett: It may be unfair to expect much offense out of a utility guy but Eric has had a rough week filling in for JRoll. One surprising stat is that his defensive play has actually been better than JRoll in nearly every category so at least he's doing one thing right. Eric went 4-22 (.182 AVG/.217 OBP) this week and was the only position player without a hit yesterday in the Phillies rout of the Houston Astros.

Honorary Goat of the Week - Houston GM Ed Wade: Ed Wade made what I will politely call some "questionable" moves in his tenure as Phillies GM but I must say that his trade for SS Miguel Tejada appears to be topping all of them. Not only has Tejada been implicated in the Mitchell Report but now we've come to find out that he is indeed 33 years old instead of 31. All this makes the bevy of young prospects that Wade shipped to Baltimore even more painful for Astros fans. This is the same guy that traded his team's closer for a utility OF so go figure.

The Phillies have the Mets coming to town starting tonight where SP Johan Santana will face off against fellow lefty SP Cole Hamels in the Battle of the Changeup. It should be an interesting game to watch. Also the Phillies will be on national television again this Sunday when they face off in the series finale at 8pm on Sunday Night Baseball. Hopefully JRoll will be back for this series.

Model of Mediocrity

2008-04-17T14:41:00.002-04:00

Interesting and befuddling stat of the day:

2008 Longest Winning Streak - 2 games
2008 Longest Losing Streak - 2 games

The Phillies have simply been unable to get any sort of momentum going over the first 16 games of the season and interestingly enough it is not the pitching which is hamstringing this team. The Phillies are actually 3rd in the NL in Quality Starts (6 IP, 3 ER or less) from their starters and the Bullpen has been fairly solid as well. The Phillies hitting has been up and down all season though and they have simply not been clutch. 3B Rally Killer has led the way despite his late inning heroics on Tuesday with multiple momentum killing GIDPs, weak popups with men in scoring position and the ever popular ground out to 3B or SS when the Phillies are trying to advance a runner with less than 2 outs. However, more puzzling, 1B Ryan Howard has been just as inconsistent. While he has 3 HRs so far, he his batting a pitiful .189 with 20 Ks in just 53 ABs. In other words he's striking out in over 30% of his plate appearances. That is a ridiculous stat and if he keeps it up, he will easily shatter his own single season strikeout record.

In other news: SS Jimmy Rollins is not expected back in the lineup until Saturday at the earliest. I'm beginning to wonder why he wasn't put on the 15 day DL to rest his injured ankle. UT Eric Bruntlett has been brutal in his place both in the field and at the plate. He now has 4 hits in 7 games since taking over for JRoll at Short.

Good News: SP Kyle Kendrick had his first Quality Start of the season yesterday and SP Adam Eaton continues to perform well in the first couple weeks of the season. Eaton is 3 for 3 on Quality Starts this year and he is posting an ERA of 4.12 in the early going. His GB rate is up and he appears to be pitching to contact more this year instead of trying to strike batters out. That's a good sign of his confidence.

Even Better News: SP Brett Myers appears to have "turned it on" and is working on his second straight QS after looking timid in his first 2 starts. He's challenging hitters now and his K/9 rate has gone up in 4 straight starts. He's looking to improve to 2-1 on the season if the Phillies hold on to win this afternoon.

Phillies Prospect Watch

2008-04-15T15:17:00.002-04:00

The Phillies don't exactly have the best minor-league system in Major League Baseball. In fact they tend to be rated in the bottom 3rd when it comes to prospects. Baseball America puts them at 21st out of 30 for their minor league system and Baseball Prospect only gives them 2 players in the top 100 prospects in baseball (#96 Joe Savery and #68 Carlos Carrasco). Neither project as more than a #3 Starter at this point. That being said, here is a quick list of the "healthy" prospects in the Phillies system. I say healthy because I'm not even gonna talk about the bevy of young arms the Phillies have that have had Tommy John surgery in the past year and are thus huge questionmarks from here on out. In case you're wondering Kyle Drabek and Scott Mathieson are on that list. So here goes:

Clearwater Threshers:

LHP Joe Savery: Has been dominant so far in 3 appearances (20 IP, 0.90 ERA, 13 Ks) and will probably end up in AA before long. As one of the Phillies top pitching prospects he will probably be rushed to the majors as soon as possible...he needs to be as he is already 22 years old and in Single A. His K rate is a little low for A ball but overall he has been impressive.

LHP Antonio Bastardo: Has also been dominant in the first couple weeks especially against leftys. Leftys are batting .000 against him with 7 Ks in 8 ABs. Overall he has 17 Ks in 10 IP with an ERA of 0.90 in 2 starts. He's 23 years old so he needs to get moving. In 2005, he struck out 63 batters in 38 innings in Rookie ball where he was used as a closer. He throws a power fastball with movement in the low to mid 90's but his secondary pitches need work. He's also undersized at 5'11", 180lbs. I'd love to find out more about him as his numbers make him look dominant.

2B Adrian Cardenas: Possibly the 2B of the future and one of the Phillies top position prospects. By the time he makes the majors (he'll be 21 this October, Utley will likely be the 1B so it won't matter. He's off to a hot start in Single A batting .378 in 45 ABs. One troubling sign...he's only walked 1 time in 46 plate appearances. Also he only has 3 extra base hits out of 17 total hits. He needs to learn patience at the plate or he'll never make it to the majors. One good thing is that his K rate (6 Ks total) is also very low so he's a very high contact hitter who probably should be in AA.

OF Matt Spencer: Huge power threat from the left side of the plate. He projects more as a 1B than an OF but we'll see. He also strikes out a ton (similar to Ryan Howard). He's off to a pretty good start in Clearwater but his power numbers are down early on. Line: .300 AVG, .340 OBP, 3 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 7 Ks in 40 ABs. He turned 22 in January.

Reading Phillies:

RHP Carlos Carrasco: Rated as the Phils top prospect and projected as a middle of the rotation guy (i.e. 3rd starter). He's been strong so far. In 2 starts he's pitched 11 innings and struck out 14 while walking 4 with an ERA of 2.45. He could be on the MLB roster by the end of the season.

LHP Josh Outman: Another of the Phils top pitching prospects...he projects as a #4 or 5 guy or bullpen reliever (the Phillies system is kinda thin). He throws low 90's with his fastball and throws a good slider. He needs to work on his control though. In 2 starts he's piched 11 innings and struck out 12 while walking 6 for an ERA of 1.64. He's also allowed alot of hits (14 total in 11 innings) so he hasn't been dominant as much as hes gotten lucky to have such a low ERA.

LHP Fabio Castro: Rule V guy who should be in the majors right now if only he had any control of his pitches. Still he's been good so far with 12 K in 12 IP with "only" 6 BB and 6 hits allowed for an ERA of 0.75. He's another guy who we could see in a Phillies uniform if there are injuries and/or Kendrick completely collapses.

RHP Andrew Carpenter: He wowed Manuel and Gillick in that last spring training game but he has struggled so far at AA. (3 Starts: 16 2/3 IP, 22 H, 7 BB, 9 Ks, 5.94 ERA). He is better than those numbers suggest and will probably improve drastically as the season progresses.

OF Greg Golson: So far he's off to a good start in AA but he still is striking out a bunch and not taking a walk. He will be a bust as a prospect if he doesn't learn some discipline at the plate. So far he's batting .326 with an OBP of .356. He's also struck out 12 times in only 43 ABs with just 2 BBs. He is a perfect 7 for 7 in stolen bases though.

C Lou Marson: This is the guy will be the Phillies starting catcher in probably 2-3 years and Ruiz will be the backup...he's better than Ruiz in all aspects of the game including hitting. So far he's been pretty good in Reading batting .333 with an OBP of .438 in his first 8 games. He's the catcher of the future and the reason that C Jason Jarromillo in AAA probably won't ever start for the Phillies...oh and he's turn 22 this June.

SS Jason Donald: He projects as a utility player right now but could turn into a competent 2B (most scouting reports I've seen project him as a 2B not a SS. Rollins and Utley are blocking him in the majors so its kinda tough to figure where's he's gonna play. He's playing pretty well right now batting .269 with an OBP of .387. He'll be 24 in September so he's not exactly a young prospect

2B Brad Harmon: An Aussie import who projects as a utility infielder with a little bit of power and average defense. He's off to a slow start batting .171 in his first 11 games.

Lehigh Valley IronPigs:

First off, the Phillies don't have any real prospects in AAA so here goes:

LHP Travis Blackley: Blackley could probably be in Philly right now as the 2nd lefty in the Pen if the Phillies needed him. He has dominated leftys so far in the minors (.100 in 6 2/3 IP against leftys). The problem is that right handed hitters turn into Rogers Hornsby against him batting .353 so far this year. He's striking out exactly 1 batter per inning and his walk rate (the reason he didn't make the roster instead of Condrey) is bareable with 4 BBs in 10 IPs. He might end up doing a spot start as the options for spot starting this year are him, JA Happ or JD Durbin.

C Jason Jaromillo: He's the only other player on the IronPigs roster who should ever see a Major League uniform. He's off to a dreadful start but he's still an outstanding defensive catcher. He'll probably end up as a backup somewhere in the majors in the next few years. Right now he's batting .138 with a slugging percentage of .345. His biggest problem is that he'll be 26 this year and he is not a young prospect anymore. He did bat .271 last year in Scranton and he could easily replace Coste as the backup right now if something were to happen. The phillies are set at Catcher for the next several years between Ruiz, Jarromillo, and Marson

Weekly Wrapup

2008-04-11T13:57:00.007-04:00

Well, after weeks of speculation, the Phillies signed LHP Steve Kline to a minor-league deal and he will report to the AAA Lehigh Valley IronPigs next week. Considering how often pitchers go down with injury and/or are ineffective, Kline could very quickly find himself on the big league roster as long as he performs in Allentown. RHP Ryan Madson has been complaining about soreness in his pitching shoulder (the same injury that forced him to miss 2 months last year) and both Tom Gordon and Clay Condrey have been somewhat ineffective so far this season. Gordon had a streak of 4 scoreless appearances going into last night where he gave up the winning run in 1 2/3 IP. Granted that run came on a horrible call by the home plate umpire but a run is a run is a run and the Phillies always need more pitching.

In other news: RHP Kris Benson continues to throw off the mound in Clearwater and looks to start in a minor-league game in hopefully two weeks if everything goes well. Considering how poorly SP Kyle Kendrick has pitched thus far in the season, Benson could quickly find himself in the starting rotation.

Huge Surprise of the Year: SP Adam Eaton has pitched in two games so far and both have been quality starts (6 IP, 3ER or less). He has posted a 3.91 ERA so far. Perhaps this will be the year that he figures it all out and somewhat earns his $8 million a year in salary. Or perhaps he will give up 10 runs in his next start...with Adam you never know.

Its About Time: SP Brett Myers was quoted as saying that he will be a "Closer for 9 innings on Saturday". Basically he means he's gonna go out there and just rear up and throw fastballs. Hopefully the Cubs don't read the Daily News and just sit fastball on him but hey if he can bring it, let him. It would be nice to see him stop throwing 90 MPH fastballs and actually get some mustard on the ball.

Weekly Awards:

Player of the Week - LF Pat Burrell: LF Pat Burrell has simply been on fire this week going 9 for 21 with 7 BB, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 4 R, and 20 Total Bases. For that math impaired that's a .438 AVG/.571OBP. Burrell has been the most consistent hitter for the Phillies so far and he looks to build on excellent second half in 2007. Over the past couple season, Pat has cut his strikeout rate and raised his OBP each year and those trends seem to be continuing as he becomes a much more patient hitter than the free-swinging days of his early career.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Cole Hamels: SP Cole Hamels went 7 strong innings on Monday afternoon picking up his first win of the season snapping a two game losing streak and salvaging a 2-2 series split with the Cincinnati Reds. He struck out 4 and gave up 1 ER getting the win. Reliever Chad Durbin was a close runner-up pitching 5 innings in 3 appearances with no runs scored. He continues to be strong out of the Pen.

Goat of the Week - 1B Ryan Howard: Despite Victorino's struggles at the top of the order, Howard has actually been worse this week going 4 for 28 (.148 AVG) with 11 K. The only bright spot is that he has hit 2 HRs with 4 RBI but otherwise Howard looks lost up at the plate.

A Night Best Forgotten

2008-04-10T15:13:00.006-04:00

I live in Vermont which means I don't have the privilege of watching the Phillies on local TV whenever I please. So when they are nationally televised in HD like they were last night, I tend to block off that time so I can enjoy the game uninterrupted. I figured I would be in for quite a treat as the Phillies were looking to make it 10 straight against their division rival, the NY Mets. To say the least, I was somewhat disappointed by their lackluster effort in all aspects of the game. UT Eric Bruntlett was brutal filling in from MVP SS Jimmy Rollins. Bruntlett committed two little-league level errors in the games and looked out of place in JRoll's shoes. 3B Pedro Feliz, AKA Rally Killer maintained his place as the Phillie most likely to end any potential run scoring in the course of a game. He was only saved from grounding into another inning ending doubl-play when the usually surehanded Jose Reyes muffed an easy ground ball. However, not to be undone, Feliz promptly hit a weak popout to second base when he came up to bat in the top of the 8th with the bases-loaded and 2 outs. From here on out, I will never use Rally Killer's true name. He will need to earn that privilege back and I kinda doubt that it will ever happen.
Unfortunately for the Phillies, they got absolutely no support from SP Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick, a second-year player, lacked control for most of the night and got pounded when he did manage throw strikes. Kendrick is somewhat of a mystery. No one ever expected him to make the Major League roster last year, let alone win 10 games. He lacks an true out-pitch and gets by on hitting his spots and not walking anyone. He cannot afford to walk anyone as hitters bat .280 off of him with around a .330 OBP. As he also doesn't strike anyone out, his numbers don't project him having a very long career. I think alot of Phillies fans are going to be greatly disappointed by Kendrick this season. Last night, he threw a decent sinking fastball that stayed in the 89-92 MPH range and hit 93 MPH on occasion but he couldn't locate either his changeup or breaking ball with any consistency. He managed to walk 6 batters (a career high by the way) in just over 2 IP. He loaded the bases in both the 1st and 2nd innings on walks and in the 3rd on hits and errors by his defense. He was pulled in favor of RP Chad Durbin after 2 1/3 innings. Luckily for the Phillies, Durbin was able to stop the bleeding and contributed 3 2/3 strong innings with no runs allowed despite pitching the day before. Durbin also lowerd his ERA to 1.13 over 8 innings in 6 appearances in the Phillies first 9 games. He has thus far shown himself to be Manager Charlie Manuel's best option out of the pen.
Overall, the Phillies bullpen has proven to be very deep early in the season, especially after the return of CP Brad Lidge. Durbin, Lidge, Romero, and Gordon have all been excellent. Gordon's only bad game so far came on Opening Day. Since then he has not given up a run in his past 4 appearances. Rudy Seanez looks to be a fine addition to the back end of the pen and RHP Ryan Madson should also contribute. So far, the 12th pitcher Clay Condrey is the only reliever to be really concerned about and I honestly doubt he'll see much meaningful action for the Phillies.

New and Notes: LF Pat Burrell continued his early season tear going 2 for 4 last night raising his average to .400 on the year with 3 HRs/9 RBI. Much maligned starter Adam Eaton looks for 2 strong performances in a row as he faces off against SP John Maine tonight at 7:10 pm. CF Shane Victorino took a step backwards last night going 0-5 with 1 K lowering his average to .162. 1B Ryan Howard continues to struggle at the plate and is batting .188 so far this year. RF Geoff Jenkins made a spectacular diving catch in the 3rd inning last night to help stop the bleeding and the RF platoon of Jenkins and Werth appears to be working out so far early this year (Combined stats: .278 AVG, .381 OBP, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 R)

Phillies Ruin Mets Home Opener

2008-04-09T11:36:00.006-04:00

Well the Fightin' Phils managed to win again. They were able to come from behind and defeat the Mets 5-2 despite a very strong performance by Mets Lefty Oliver Perez who went 5 2/3 innings without allowing a run. It was truly a team effort as SS Jimmy Rollins, 2B Chase Utley, and CF Shane Victorino each chipped in on offense with key contributions. In particular, Victorino had his first multi-hit game of the season going 2-5 with 1 BB and raised his batting average to .188 on the year. Utley reached base 4 times with 3 HBP and an RBI double to deep right that cemented the Phillies lead in the later innings.

Most importantly, the Bullpen came up strong again in what appears to be a growing strength for the club this year. RHP Chad Durbin pitched another scoreless inning lowering his ERA to 2.08 and LHP J.C. Romero and RHP Tom Gordon pitched the 8th and 9th innings to seal the deal for the Phillies. Gordon has not allowed a run since Opening Day and he appears to have gotten stronger with each outing which is an excellent sign for the bullpen. He recorded his first save of the season as Closer Brad Lidge was unavailable for work as he had pitched the previous 2 days in a row coming off the DL. Romero has continued his excellent pitching for the Phillies this year and Chad Durbin looks well suited to the middle-relief/right handed setup role that he has been given so far early in the season.

SP Kyle Kendrick will take the mound tonight for the Phillies as they try to make it 10 in a row against the NY Mets. Gametime is 7:05 pm EST and will be broadcast nationally in HD on ESPN2.

Pat Burrell Powers Phils to Victory

2008-04-07T15:29:00.003-04:00

Pat Burrell hit 2 HRs and drove in 3 as the Phillies defeated the Cincinnati Reds 5-3 this afternoon. SP Cole Hamels delivered his second straight impressive performance going 7 innings and allowing 2 runs (1 earned) while striking out 4. There were alot of positives for the Phillies in this game. Both Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell continued their strong starts and RF Geoff Jenkins hit his first HR of the season and is proving to be a fine pick-up by GM Pat Gillick. However, CF Shane Victorino continued to struggle, going 1 for 5 which raised his batting average to .143. Perhaps a move down in the batting order would benefit the Flyin' Hawaiian for a couple of games until he can get his timing down. Or perhaps not. Its still very early in the season to be concerned with this type of slump. In related news, Ryan Howard is struggling somewhat at the plate as well; He went 1-4 with 3 Ks lowering his average to .208 on the season.

Positives:

1. Burrell and JRoll have both started the season fast out of the gate.

2. SP Cole Hamels had another dominant performance.

3. Closer Brad Lidge got his first Save of the season pitching 1 inning and allowing no earned runs.

Negatives:

1. The Phillies defense continues to be atrocious committing another 2 errors today. Both errors were by newcomers with OF So Taguchi and 3B Pedro Feliz each committing one. Both players were brought on board mainly for their defensive skills so go figure.

2. Victorino is off to a horrid start.....143 average in the first 7 games of the season.

3. Howard is also struggling batting .208.

Tomorrow, the Phillies start a 3 game series in NY against the Mets and SP Jamie Moyer will take the mound against SP Oliver Perez. After that they are back in Philly for a 9 game homestand against the Cubs, Astros, and Mets.

Breaking News!!!

2008-04-07T14:53:00.001-04:00

Tom Gordon pitched an entire inning and didn't give up any hits or runs...and it was in a meaningful part of the game.

~feels the ground~

Kinda cold. I guess Hell did freeze over.

Phillies Win in 10 and Weekly Awards

2008-04-04T10:26:00.005-04:00

So the Phillies showed that they do give a damn about the season and the offense came alive for them finally. The Phillies actually showed great composure in what could be a huge come from behind victory beating the Nationals 8-7 in 10 innings. It was good to see and it was a good sign to see the much questioned bullpen come up huge.

Positives:

1. Shane Victorino finally got his first hit of the year

2. Bottom half of the order came up huge (Jenkins/Feliz/Coste went 7 for 14 with 4 runs scored and 2 RBI)

3. Bullpen looked solid

Negatives:

1. Tom Gordon took 34 pitches to retire the Nats in the 9th. He managed to load the bases but not give up any runs. Scary.

2. 4 errors in the first inning and a third. The Phillies still don't appear ready to be playing meaningful games.

3. It basically took everything the Phillies had to eke out a victory against a mediocre team and salvage a 1-2 split of the Series. For the record, by the 10th inning the Phillies had no one left on the bench and only RHP Tim Lahay in the bullpen.

Weekly Awards:

Let me start off by explaining how this will work. Every Friday I will give out awards to top performers on the Phillies for the week. This is a somewhat shortened week but typically the period will run from Friday night - Thursday Night for stats and key contributions. That being said:

Pitcher of the Week - Chad Durbin: Now this could easily be Cole Hamels for his dominant 8 inning performance but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Chad Durbin. Durbin has appeared in all 3 games so far in relief and given up no runs in 3 IP. He has positioned himself to be a go-to guy out of the Pen for the rest of season with his performance.

Player of the Week - Jimmy Rollins: Yeah I know, he's only batting .231 so far in 3 games. However, his huge 1st to 3rd gamble in the 10th inning paid massive dividends yesterday afternoon and positioned the Phillies to win their first game. Also his 7 Total Bases leads the team and he's tied for the team lead in Hits, Runs, RBIs, 2Bs, and HRs.

Ouch

2008-04-03T14:13:00.002-04:00

So 4 errors through the first 4 inning today for the Phillies defense. "Gold-glover" Jimmy Rollins now has 2 in his first 3 games as does 2B Chase Utley. "Gold-glove" 3B Pedro Feliz committed his first error of the year today as well. So officially the infield has 5 errors and 6 hits in 3 games. Impressive performance so far by the the Fightin' Phils. Considering that hitting and offense were supposed to be this team's strengths, their pathetic performance at the plate is somewhat concerning. Subpar performances by starters Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer have only compounded the situation. I am fully confident that Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton will be able to stop the bleeding this week and give us two solid outings...or more likely the Phillies will start the season 0-5.

Pedro Martinez Injured

2008-04-02T11:32:00.006-04:00

So the Mets lost their 2nd best pitcher and the lynchpin of their rotation last night when Pedro Martinez came up clutching his thigh after a pitch. The part of me that started him in my fantasy league was sad but the Phillie Fan in me rejoiced at the injury. Major injuries to key players is honestly the only way the Phillies have a chance to beat the Mets this year. Injuries to their pitching staff in particular are huge as they really don't have that much depth. Hopefully, for the Phillies sake, Pedro is gone for at least a couple of months. He has an MRI scheduled today and hopefully we'll know more by tonight or tomorrow morning as to how severe it is. However, 36 year old fragile pitchers with extensive injury histories aren't exactly known for bouncing back quickly.

In other news, Cole Hamels will take the mound tonight against the Nats and hopefully he has a good outing because as we all know, the rest of the Phillies staff isn't exactly reliable so a 2 game losing streak could easily turn into a 5 game streak in the blink of an eye. I will boldly predict a strong outing from Hamels and a win for the Phightin' Phils tonight.

Rookie to Watch: I know this is a Phillies Blog, but I just had to mention rookie CF Carlos Gomez of the Minnesota Twins. He had a spectacular debut on Opening Day for the Twins and made the Santana trade look a little less lopsided with his 2 H, 2 SB, and a couple of spectacular defensive plays in center. If he learns how to consistently hit, he could be an All-Star for years to come.

Injury Update: Mets SP Pedro Martinez is reportedly headed to the DL and is expected to miss a minimum of one month assuming everything goes perfectly with his rehabilitation.

Phillies Acquire 39-Year-Old RHP Rudy Seanez

2008-04-01T13:14:00.003-04:00

The Phillies apparently feel that they don't have quite enough washed up aging relievers so they decided to sign Rudy Seanez, who was cut by the Dodgers earlier this week, to a contract. Seanez is expected to be in uniform for the Phillies tomorrow. Seanez was signed to a 1 year - $550K contract with $750 K in possible performance bonuses back in February of this year by the Dodgers. However, after a poor Spring, he was cut on Sunday. The Phillies will be responsible for his contract this year after claiming him off waivers.

I'll go out on a limb here and guess that Tom Gordon will be on the DL with a "previously undiagnosed" injury within the next 2 weeks as Seanez will be thrust into his setup role. Its pretty sad that it's Day 2 of the 2008 Season and Pat Gillick is already picking up Arms from the scrap heap. Not a good sign for the rest of the season.

Cut Tom Gordon Now!!!

2008-03-31T18:14:00.003-04:00

So 1 down, 161 to go. Tom Gordon should just toss himself into traffic on the Blue Route and save himself the pain of coming back to Citizens Bank Park tomorrow and facing the fans after his pathetic performance this afternoon. Absolutely pathetic!!!

Hopefully this isn't an omen on how the season will be but I have a really bad feeling that it will be. So 1 down, 161 to go and the Phillies start off their season in their usual fashion...0-1 after 1 game.

Did I mention that Johan Santana started for the Mets today and is looking to be in All-Star form?

Opening Day!!!

2008-03-31T09:50:00.002-04:00

Ahh, the smell of Opening Day!!! I've been to one Opening Day in my life and it was the Phillies 20th Anniversary of opening Veterans Stadium in 1991. Other than that, I've never been to an actual Opening Day. Still after a long cold winter of waiting and watching, checking the paper every day for trades and signings, monitoring the waiver wire and playing GM via email and internet postings, Opening Day is here and with it a season of promise. 162 games loom out ahead of the Phillies and it all starts this afternoon. They haven't lost yet this season and hopefully I'll be able to say the same thing tomorrow.
Brett Myers will take the mound as Opening Day starter in a surprise decision by Charlie Manuel which technically makes Cole Hamels the #2 starter. In reality, they will be co-aces of the pitching staff and the move was made purely out of concern for Hamels' long term health. The lineup will be as fearsome as always featuring two MVP winners and the best 2B in baseball along with key contributers in the form of a 30 HR LF (Pat Burrell), a 20 HR 3B (Pedro Feliz) and a 20 HR RF (Geoff Jenkins) and the potential to steal 50 bases in CF with Shane Victorino. Offensively, this could easily be a historic season for the Phillies and there is no doubt that they will score a ton of runs. Hopefully the questionable pitching will give them just enough to contend and win the NL East. It will be a daunting task as both the Braves and Mets have improved in the off-season and will look to challenge the Phillies for the division crown. It all starts today!!!

Phillies Acquire Relief Pitcher

2008-03-29T10:54:00.004-04:00

The Phillies claimed RHP Tim Lahey off waivers from the Chicago Cubs today. Lahey is a Rule V draft pick that failed to make the Cubs lineup and he must therefore be kept on the Phillies 25 man roster all season or be offered back to the Minnesota Twins. Lahey was originally drafted out of Princeton as a catcher but was quickly converted to a pitcher after one season in the Twins minor-league system. He is a prototypical power pitcher; He stands 6'5" tall, weighs 250 lbs and throws 3 pitches. His fastball stays in the 90-95 MPH range hovering around 93 most of the time. He throws a good slider and a decent changeup according to scouting reports. He has struggled with control so far in his career but his strikeout rate is above average.

2007 Stats in AA New Britain:

ERA W L GP GS CG ShO SV IP H R ER HR BB K
3.45 8 4 50 0 0 0 13 78.1 78 42 30 8 33 56

As you can see he was good in AA posting a decent K/9 ratio of 6.45 however his BB/9 ratio of 3.80 needs to drop if he is to be successful in the Majors. Also his WHIP of 1.42 needs to improve but its not horrible. The bottom line is that he can't possibly be worse than J.D. Durbin.

Closing notes: The Phillies are also hoping to add another pitcher off waivers before 3pm tomorrow when rosters need to be set.

Adam Eaton Sucks and Other Phillies Thoughts

2008-03-28T14:00:00.004-04:00

Adam Eaton sucks. He is perhaps the worst signing in the history of the Philadelphia Phillies organization. Sadly, barring an unforseen move by the Front Office to cut its losses with him, we have another 2 long seasons of watching him attempt to pitch to MLB hitters. Perhaps the Phillies could hold a raffle every fifth day where a lucky fan is named starting pitcher for that night's start. It couldn't possibly be any worse than trotting Eaton out there to pitch.

The biggest issue with Eaton isn't that he plays poorly, its that he's stupid. He has the ability to pitch in the Majors, he simply doesn't perform. His pitches are good enough, but his selection and poise at key moments always allows 1 run innings to turn into those game killing 5 run innings he is so famous for. Eaton can literally throw 95 pitches in a game and only miss on 5 of them but still lose by 10 runs because he truly is a moron with his pitch selection. He buckles under pressure like a belt. He is absolutely worthless and every time he starts a game this year, it will be another brick in the wall between the Phillies and a post-season berth.

In other news, JD "Real Deal" Durbin was put on waivers. Likely he will stay with the club anyway as I expect that no one in their right mind will be willing to take him off the Phillies hands. This means he will probably start the season in Allentown along with Travis Blackley (who also cleared waivers) playing for the IronPigs. This means that the Phillies could start the season with only 10 pitchers on the 25 man roster and go up to 11 when Lidge is activated from the 15-day DL after the first week of the season. It also means that the Phillies will be able to keep both Chris Snelling and Wes Helms on the 25 man roster at least in the short-term. This will be helpful in efforts to trade Helms instead of outright releasing him and being on the hook for around $3 million in future salary. However, it also means the Phillies are likely expecting to be able to pick up another pitcher off the waivers scrap heap between now and Sunday afternoon when rosters need to be set for Opening Day. This could mean that borderline players like LHP Steve Kline (who was mentioned in earlier trade rumors) may be available on waivers in the next few days, alleviating the need for the Phillies to give anything up for another arm.

Bold Prediction for the year: Pat Burrell will have a huge contract year in 2008. Pat will be looking to sign one final long term deal after this season and he will need to come up huge to make it happen. Likely, the Phillies will not be resigning him for a couple of reasons. First off, he is dreadful defensively in LF and he has never recovered from the series of ankle and foot injuries he has dealt with in the past few years. Secondly, they are leary of long-term deals for 30+ players like Burrell. Finally, it would make sense for Pat to go for a DH role on an AL club which would lengthen his career considerably with far less wear and tear on his already fragile legs. I could easily see him ending up somewhere like Toronto where Frank Thomas's contract will be up or the Yankees who have around $60 million coming off the books next year as well. Burrell has been very underrated as a Phillie and he has provided a very solid right-handed bat for them for the past 7 years. He will be missed in the middle of the lineup. Left field is a different story though. Predicted line for Pat Burrell this season:

G: 151
AB: 525
Avg: .279
OBP: .415
HR: 35
RBI: 109
BB: 110
K: 120